Videos can be viewed at this link. Long Range Video Update
If you believe you missed a video then you can also click the LIVE FEED link on the Weather Talk website. That page holds links for several days.
I can text you the videos, as well. Make sure you have text option FOUR turned on. That would be the Weather Extra text option. Sign up for the text messages at www.beaudodsonweather.com
.
.
This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
.
The following link is for Weather Text subscribers. This is the page where short and long range video outlooks have been posted. The videos are being produced by a team of meteorologists. Some of the best in the region.
https://weathertalk.com/app/beaucast
.
August 11, 2017
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Patchy dense fog possible late. Quite a few clouds. Evening showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation ending as the night wears on. Cooler north vs south. A boundary will divide the area.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 68 (cooler northern counties vs south) IL ~ 60 to 70 (cooler northern counties vs southern) KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming northerly at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning before lightning. Lesser chances after midnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? A few evening storms could produce strong winds. Low severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered early. Ending late.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would check radars and updated numbers.
.
August 12, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
NOTE: If fog forms tonight then clouds will linger on Saturday and it will be cooler.
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny – If fog doesn’t form.
Shave 4 to 8 degrees off the highs if fog forms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None anticipated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Pleasant. Cooler.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: Variable winds at 3 to 6 mph. Winds mostly northeast and east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium/high. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
August 13, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. It should be a nice day. Increasing afternoon clouds. A small chance for late afternoon thunderstorms near Poplar Bluff.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor late afternoon thunderstorm chances for the Poplar Bluff area into the Bootheel.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% (late afternoon) IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Most of the day will be dry. Late in the day there could be some thunderstorms over southeast Missouri. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars late in the day.
.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: East and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to perhaps isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low confidence. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
.
August 14, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance for scattered thunderstorms. Greatest precipitation chances over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~ 76 to 84 TN ~ 76 to 84
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
.
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Greatest precipitation chances over southeast Missouri, western Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
August 15, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: East or southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
.
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers or thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Southeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Maybe wet roadways and lightning. Low confidence.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans. No
.
August 15, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Warmer. Humid/muggy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
.
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Friday night through Monday: Thunderstorms are possible Friday evening and night. Thunderstorms will end late tonight.
Some of the thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, dime size hail, and high winds. There is a low end risk for damaging winds Friday evening.
Saturday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday night through Thursday: Thunderstorms are possible, but most likely will remain below severe levels. Gusty winds and lightning will be possible.
Well, for those who have been with me all week, you will know that the weekend forecast was marked as low confidence. It has proven to be just that.
At one time it appeared that both Saturday and Sunday would be wet. Now it appears that both days will be dry.
There is a small chance for an isolated shower over the Missouri Bootheel and northwest Tennessee on Saturday, but I think it will remain dry.
Sunday will remain dry through most of the afternoon. Late in the day showers and thunderstorms may develop towards the Poplar Bluff area. The rain and storms would then spread east and northeast on Sunday evening and night. I have high rain chances for Sunday night. We will see how that turns out.
Monday through Thursday appear mild with below normal temperatures. A chance for isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms.
Hard to believe we are half-way through August and still no “true” heat in the forecast. Amazing, actually
Check out the temperature anomalies for Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. Monday is so dramatic because the NAM paints clouds and rain in the region. Normal highs are in the upper 80’s.
Saturday
Sunday
Monday
Here are the updated six to ten day temperature and precipitation probability maps.
What is the percentage chance of them averaging normal, below normal, or above normal.
Six to ten day temperature outlook for Tuesday, August 15th through Saturday, August 19th
As you can see, probabilities favor below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Six to ten day precipitation outlook for Tuesday, August 15th through Saturday, August 19th
Eight to fourteen day temperature outlook for Saturday, August 19th through Wednesday, August 23rd
Eight to fourteen day precipitation outlook for Saturday, August 19th through Wednesday, August 23rd
Eclipse Weather
Ensembles continue to show a 30% or greater of clouds and/or rain on eclipse day. Low confidence this far out. Official forecasts will begin next week. Fingers crossed.
Here are the models. The yellow squares are model runs that indicate a 30% or greater of clouds and/or precipitation.
Are you subscribing to the Weather Talk texts and videos?
We now have premiere videos for the short and long range forecasts! Make sure you have text option four turned on (green).
Sign up at www.beaudodsonweather.com
We also have an Apple and Android app (scroll down to bottom of the page for more information)
Were you aware that I have hired some help for long range videos? Short range videos, as well. An amazing team of meteorologists.
Click the link below to read more
http://cms.weathertalk.com/meet-the-team/
Weather Talk subscribers now have some of the best short and long range weather videos produced across the eastern United States.
.
Find me on Twitter
.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
The Beau Dodson Weather APP is ready for Apple and Android users. The purpose of this app is for me to deliver your text messages instantly. ATT and Verizon have not always been reliable when it comes to speed. The app allows instant delivery.
Some of you have asked if you can keep receiving the texts on your phone and the app. The answer to that is, yes. The Android app will automatically allow that to happen. On the Apple app, however, you will need to go into your app and click settings. Make sure the green tab is OFF. Off means you will still receive the texts to your phone and the app. If you have any questions, then email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The app is for text subscribers.
The direct download, for the Apple app, can be viewed here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/id1190136514
If you have not signed up for the texting service then you may do so at www.beaudodsonweather.com
The Android app is also ready.
Remember, the app’s are for www.weathertalk.com subscribers. The app allows your to receive the text messages faster than ATT and Verizon.
Here is the download link for the Android version Click Here
——————————————————–
If you have not signed up for the texts messages, then please do. Link www.beaudodsonweather.com
Your support helps with the following:
and
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
