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I have some question-and-answer threads over on the Facebook page. Link to those threads CLICK HERE
Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com
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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
August 11th through August 17th
Current risk: NONE.
Current confidence level: High confidence in the forecast.
Comments: We are not anticipating tornadoes.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Scattered. Scattered lightning will be possible this week. Primarily on Tuesday, Wednedsay, and Thursday. Lower chances today, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms in the forecast? NO. Thunderstorms, during the summer months, can produce isolated gusty winds. Organized severe weather is not anticipated.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Slow-moving summer storms can produce isolated torrential downpours that can briefly flood ditches and roadways. Organized or widespread flash flooding is not anticipated.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees? LIKELY. Today through next Monday.
6. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.
7. Will the heat index (feels like) rise above 100 degrees? POSSIBLE. Heat index values may exceed 100 degrees by Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
8. Will the heat index rise above 115 degrees? NO.
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Here is the concern meter outlook. This takes us through next Sunday. Extreme weather is not anticipated.
A few normal summer-time thunderstorms will be possible this week.
Keep in mind that typical August/summer thunderstorms can produce isolated heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
.A quick forecast glance. Your 48-hour forecast Graphics
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This afternoon
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Forecast discussion.
- Hot and humid conditions are expected over the next seven days. Temperatures will be a few degrees above average.
- Warm mornings. Warm/hot afternoons.
- Scattered thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Lower chances on Friday and Saturday.
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Good morning, everyone. I hope you had a nice weekend!
Satellite this morning shows a large thunderstorm complex (MCS) over Kansas. That will not make it into our region. It will dissipate before then. That is, however, a part of the system that will push our way tomorrow and Wednesday/Thursday.
Satellite (6 AM)
Here is what radar looked like. Lot of rain in Kansas.
This will bring a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region.
The weather is going to remain hot and humid this week. Highs will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows will dip into the seventies. These temperatures will be a few degrees above seasonal averages.
An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible today. Same as the last two days. Most areas will remain dry. A few spots could pick up a quick shower or thunderstorm.
Precipitation chances will increase a bit on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty winds will accompany the heavier storms.
The risk of severe weather is low. It is rarely zero during the summer months. You can always have an isolated warning for gusty winds. Organized or widespread severe weather is not anticipated. That is the good news.
Rain totals will vary wildly. Typical for August. Some locations will pick up over an inch. Other places may miss out on the rain. I can’t promise everyone rain from this system.
Rain chances will begin to decrease by Friday and Saturday. Perhaps a few remaining showers and storms on Friday. Even less on Saturday and Sunday.
This is a fairly typical summer pattern.
Here is my mugmometer. How muggy will it feel?
Remember, dew point is what controls how humid it feels outside. It will be a bit more humid/sticky as we move through the week, but nothing extreme.
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The 500 mb map shows the ridge building back in (stronger) this weekend and early next week. That is the dark red zone.
If this verifies, then temperatures may rise a few more degrees. Instead of the lower nineties, we could see some mid-nineties. I will monitor trends. Either way, it will remain warm and humid.
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I did note a downward trend in temperatures towards the middle/end of next week. The EC is showing widespread eighties. That would certainly be nice.
I will keep an eye on those trends.
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No tropical storm or hurricane threats in our region through the next ten days.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
Hrrr model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
3K model
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.25″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOTreplace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.
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https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather
Want to receive the daily forecast/other products on your Beau Dodson Weather app?
Did you know you have four options in your www.weathertalk.com account
You will then receive these via your Beau Dodson Weather app.
Just log into your www.weathertalk.com account
Click the NOTIFICATION SETTINGS TAB
Then, turn them on (green) and off (red)
🌪️ Number 1 is the most important one. Severe alerts, tornado alerts, and so on.
Number 2 is the daily video, blog, livestream alerts, and severe weather Facebook threads on severe days or winter storm days.
Number 3 is the daily forecast. I send that out every day during the afternoon hours. It is the seven-day forecast, hazardous weather outlook, fire outlook, and more.
Number 4 is to receive the daily video, blog, and other content on NON-severe weather days (every day without severe threats in other words)
GREEN IS ON
RED IS OFF
I am going to start going live during bigger severe weather events.
Check it out here https://www.youtube.com/user/beaudodson
Click the subscribe button (it’s a free subscription button), and it will alert you when I go live. I will also send out alerts to the app when I go live for an event.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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We do have some sponsors! Check them out.
Roof damage from recent storms? Link – Click here
INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!
⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
Weather Talk is one of those ways! Now, I have another product for you and your family.
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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?
Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!
Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!
Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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