August 11, 2024: Monitoring storm chances. Warming trend this week.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is likely this week. That will occur as early as tonight and tomorrow over our western counties. Then, we will have on and off chances through at least Friday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I can not rule out some severe thunderstorms this week. There is not a strong signal for severe weather, but I am monitoring Tuesday night through Thursday. Mid-week. Monitor updates, because confidence in timing and placement remains lower than usual.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? MONITOR. Locally heavy rain is possible this week. Mainly mid-week. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, then some local flood issues could develop. Confidence in the timing and details remains lower than usual.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will temperatures rise above 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 100 degrees? NO.

7. Will the heat index (feels like temperature) exceed 110 degrees? NO.

8. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

9. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

10. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Sunday: 3. Very low risk.
Sunday night: 3. Very low risk.
Monday: 3. Very low risk.
Monday night: 3. Very low risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

Below normal temperatures and dry conditions with minRHs 38-45% continuing today. High pressure moving through will keep surface winds light, with little dispersion aloft as well. Showers and storm activity trends lighter on approach Monday, but daily chances through the week could bring heavy rain midweek and a few stronger storms.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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** A tricky forecast this week. Adjustments to rain probabilities will likely be needed. Monitor updated forecasts. There will be time periods where I will need to bump up the probabilities into the 40% to 60%+ range. For now, I have broadbrushed them in the 30% to 40% range. **

Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 78° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 84°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 78° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 84°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 82° to 84°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 78° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of a late night showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: After midnight
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 64°
Southeast Missouri ~ 62° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 62° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 62° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 12:53 AM
Moonset: 11:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent.

Monday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 76°
Southeast Missouri ~ 74° to 78°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 75° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 74° to 78°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 78°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 78° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 78° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 78°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 78° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Monday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 62° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 62° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 1:56 PM
Moonset: 11:45 PM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 86° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Tuesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 64° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 64° to 64°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North northeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 3:00 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 82° to 85°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 82° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 65° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 65° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 65° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 4:04 PM
Moonset: 12:25 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous

Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:56 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Intervals of clouds with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 65° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 65° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 65° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars.
Moonrise: 5:06 PM
Moonset: 1:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warmer weather ahead. A bit muggier, as well.
2. I am closely monitoring the chance of showers and thunderstorms this week.
3. Complicated forecast when it comes to timing of the rain and intensity. Confidence remains lower than usual.
4. A few storms could produce heavy rainfall totals and perhaps strong/gusty winds. Monitor updates in case a few severe storms develop mid-week.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

WOW, what a weekend it has been!

Yesterday, many reporting stations dipped into the 50s. This morning (Sunday) most locations reported lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

You really could not ask for nicer weather. Especially considering it is the second week of August!

Today will be nice, as well. Get outside and enjoy it. A few clouds here and there, but quite a bit of sunshine in most locations. No rain concerns today.

A complicated forecast unfolds tonight through Friday.

As you know, summer thunderstorm complexes are a pain to forecast. We typically don’t have a handle on them until the last 24 hours. That does not make it easy on forecasters to give you an accurate precipitation probabilities beyond 24 hours.

Summer thunderstorm complexes are called MCS’s. This is how we receive most of our summer rainfall. Without MCS’s, farmers would be in quite a bit of trouble. So, we need these thunderstorm clusters/complexes.

A series of thunderstorm clusters will move across the Missouri and Ohio Valleys tonight through Friday.

Rain probabilities are highest tonight and tomorrow morning over southeast Missouri and extreme southwest Illinois. I have them around 30 to 40%.

Here is the Hrrr model. This shows you possible rain totals through Monday night. Heavier west vs south and east.

Then, we will have several chances of showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Friday. I have been focusing in on Tuesday night through Thursday for the highest rain probabilities across the region.

I have capped rain chances in the 30% to 40% range.

With time, I will likely increase certain time periods into the 40% to 60%+ range. For now, however, confidence is not high enough for me to do that.

The bottom line is that we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the new work-week. If you have outdoor plans, then be sure and monitor the most up to date weather information. Monitor the most up to date rain probabilities. Monitor the Beau Dodson Weather radars (links below).

A few of the thunderstorms could be intense this week. There is not a strong signal for a severe thunderstorm outbreak or episode. There are low-end signals that a few storms could produce downburst winds or straight line winds.

At this time, the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe weather. With that said, they have left open the possibility of adding a severe weather zone in future-updates.

That would be a bit more likely Tuesday through Thursday vs tonight, tomorrow, or Friday.

I will monitor all of the data and continue to update the forecast numbers.

Remember, you can receive the daily forecast on the Beau Dodson Weather app. You have to turn that on by logging into www.weathertalk.com and then go to your settings. You can turn what products you want on and off. Green is on. Red is off.

Temperatures will be warm this week, but not exceptionally hot. It will be a bit more humid this week compared to the last several days.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly. If you end up under a thunderstorm or a train of thunderstorms, then some locations will pop above three or four inches of rain. Generally, however, I am expecting seven day totals in the 0.50″ to 1.50″ range.

Here is the latest WPC NOAA rainfall forecast. Again, totals will vary greatly depending on where storm clusters track.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.