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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.
Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.
Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.
Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.
The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.
The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.
It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.
Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).
It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.
It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.
The sunrise and sunset are also shown.
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48-hour forecast
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible Friday evening into at least Monday. Perhaps Tuesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Possible. Severe storms are possible this evening into tomorrow morning. I will monitor Saturday afternoon and night. Severe weather is possible Sunday/Sunday night.
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding is possible with any slow moving storms or heavy storms. Where thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas, then flash flooding risks will increase.
4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.
7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines
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Friday, August 11, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Friday Forecast: Becoming partly sunny. A slight chance of a late afternoon storm over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 3 PM
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
Southeast Missouri ~ 84° to 88°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 88°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Southern Illinois ~ 84° to 88°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 84° to 88°
Far western Kentucky ~ 84° to 88°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 84° to 88°
Winds will be from this direction: West becoming northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some could be heavy.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Possibly becoming numerous if an MCS forms
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 68° to 72°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 68° to 72°
Far western Kentucky ~ 68° to 72°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 68° to 72°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 68° to 72°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be severe.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 1:28 AM
Moonset: 5:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Saturday, August 12, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: Southwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 20%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 30%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: West 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset: 6:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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Sunday, August 13, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 85° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 85° to 90°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 85° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 85° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 85° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 85° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 85° to 90°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 86° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. High
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Sunday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 3:13 AM
Moonset: 6:44 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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- Monitoring the risk of additional severe weather.
- Flash flooding risk.
- Warm conditions.
- Cooler next week. Less humid behind a Monday cold front.
Weather advice:
Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.
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Forecast Discussion
Storm days ahead of us.
If you were not tired of storms, then just wait. You will be before it is over.
We have four straight days of severe weather in the forecast. I am hoping day four (Tuesday) trends away from severe.
Let’s break it down.
Today
Mostly dry today. I can’t 100% rule out a storm over northern portions of southern Illinois later this afternoon.
Tonight into Saturday morning
Check the future-cast radar farther down in the blog.
Thunderstorms will form over Missouri and Illinois. These storms will race southeast into our region late tonight. For some, it will be past midnight.
Some of these storms will produce high wind and hail. There will be an inversion. Warm air aloft. This causes a cap on the atmosphere. That means elevated thunderstorms.
Elevated thunderstorms typically produce large hail, frequent lightning, and torrential rain. If the storms can become surface based, then damaging wind will also be a concern.
The storms have the potential to produce vivid frequent lightning.
Stay weather aware. I will send out some app messages.
Those thunderstorms push to our south Saturday morning.
Flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas. The WPC has us in a risk of excessive rainfall.
Saturday afternoon and night
Additional thunderstorms are likely to form Saturday afternoon and night. Some of these storms could become severe with damaging wind, hail, torrential rain, and frequent lightning.
The SPC has us in a risk of a few severe thunderstorms.
Flash flooding will be possible if thunderstorms repeatedly train over the same areas.
The WPC has us in a risk of excessive rainfall.
Sunday into Monday
A strong cold front will move into the region Sunday afternoon and night. This will spark additional thunderstorms. Some of the storms could produce damaging wind, large hail, torrential rain, and frequent lightning.
There is a risk of training thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday morning. This will enhance rainfall totals. Some areas could exceed three inches of rain.
If storms do train, then flash flooding will be a significant concern.
PWAT values will be very high with this system. PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. We are forecasting tropical PWAT values.
Monitor updates.
The WPC has us in a level one and two out of four risk of flash flooding Sunday PM into Monday AM. This may be upgraded to a level three out of four risk. At least for portions of the region.
Monday night into Tuesday
Additional thunderstorms will be possible over at least Kentucky Monday night and Tuesday. If the front moves through fast enough, then we will end the severe threat before Tuesday. This remains a question.
Dry conditions are likely Tuesday night into Thursday.
I will monitor late next week for additional storm chances.
Stay weather aware over the coming days.
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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.
Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.
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Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
Explanation of tables. Click here.
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Tornado Probability Outlook
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Large Hail Probability Outlook
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High wind Probability Outlook
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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Day Three Severe Weather Outlook
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The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.
24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.
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This animation is the Hrrr Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the NAM 3K Model.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
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Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
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ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of DuPage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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