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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a blend for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Tuesday to Tuesday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today through Saturday PM.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low-risk. Some storms could produce gusty wind.
* The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Slow moving thunderstorms could cause temporary flooding issues.
4. Will there be a chance of a frost or freeze? No.
5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Not at this time.
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August 11, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. It won’t rain all day but there could be a few rounds of storms on radar. Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and storms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 90° to 94° SE MO 86° to 90° South IL 86° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 92° West KY 88° to 92° NW TN 90° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 96°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
Moonset: 1:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Last quarter
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August 12, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° SE MO 85° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 8 to 9. High.
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:50 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:15 AM
Moonset: 2:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 13, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° SE MO 85° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Variable direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: East at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 12:50 AM
Moonset: 3:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 14, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 85° to 90° SE MO 85° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 90° to 95°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:30 AM
Moonset: 4:33 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 15, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Saturday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 86° to 92° SE MO 85° to 90° South IL 85° to 90° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 85° to 90° West KY 85° to 90° NW TN 85° to 90°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 94°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 70° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 70° West KY 66° to 72° NW TN 68° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 2:18 AM
Moonset: 5:30 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 16, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Sunday Forecast: Intervals of sun and clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 83° to 86° South IL 83° to 86° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 83° to 86° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:13 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° MO 63° to 66° South IL 63° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 3:14 AM
Moonset: 6:24 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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August 17, 2020
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Low confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. An isolated thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° SE MO 80° to 85° South IL 80° to 85° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 82° to 85° West KY 83° to 86° NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 85° to 90°
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain and gusty wind.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:14 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 60° to 64° NW TN 62° to 64°
Wind direction and speed:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 65° to 70°
Coverage of precipitation:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:17 AM
Moonset: 7:12 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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What is the UV index?
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- Warm and muggy.
- A chance of thunderstorms over the coming days. Locally heavy.
Click to enlarge the graphics.
Remember, this is an average across our local area. The county by county will vary. See the detailed forecast above for each area.
Click graphics to enlarge them.
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Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through August 15th: A few storms could produce strong and gusty wind over the coming days. Organized severe weather appears unlikely. Monitor updates.
Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather advice:
Updated August 11, 2020
The heat has returned. Use care, as always. A few thunderstorms will be possible this week. Lightning will be the primary concern. Locally heavy rain.
Download the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app from the app store. Search for Weather Talk by the Fire Horn. Download it. Install it. It is for subscribers. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome
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Weather Discussion
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- Warm and humid.
- Unsettled weather with several chances of showers and thunderstorms.
- Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
The main weather story over the coming days will be periodic thunderstorm chances.
We had an organized MCS move across the region last night with gusty wind and heavy rain. A few reports of wind damage were received, as well.
That organized MCS was part of a larger system that produces hundreds of millions of dollars in damage from Iowa into northern Illinois and Indiana. Winds of 80 to 115 mph were reported in the above mentioned areas.
There were numerous farms that lost their entire corn crop because of the high winds.
Thankfully, we did not have to deal with those type of winds.
Over the coming days we will have several fairly weak disturbances move across our area.
These disturbances will mix with the warm and humid air. That means showers and thunderstorms.
The tricky part of the forecast, as always, will be how much coverage will there be.
For now, I have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.
There could be one or more organized periods of thunderstorms, as well. If an MCS develops then we will have to deal with something like we had last night. Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some with high wind and torrential rain.
Forecasting MCS’s usually come down to the last 12 to 24 hours. In other words, they aren’t typically forecast more than a day in advance.
If you have outdoor activities into the weekend and early next week then you will want to monitor the latest updates.
Highs will be partially depedent on cloud cover and precipitation. Highs in the middle 80s to around 90 degrees will be the general rule. Overnight lows around 70 degrees.
Fairly typical temperatures for the month of August.
A cold front will push into the region Saturday night and Sunday. This is not a strong front, but may help lower dew points and humidity levels. We will have to see just how far south it pushes.
It appears that we will dip below normal in the temperature department next week. Fingers crossed.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
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This animation is the Hrrr model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the SPC WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the 3K American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Green is rain. Blue is snow. Pink and red represent sleet and freezing rain.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 89 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers August 11th through August 17th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.60″ to 0.90″
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This outlook covers August 18th through August 24th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. For example, if your average rainfall is 1.00″ and the graphic shows 25%, then that would mean 0.25″ of rain is anticipated.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 64 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.40″ to 1.70″
This outlook covers August 25th through September 7th
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Precipitation outlook
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LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Click to enlarge all of the images below
These graphics are updated Monday through Friday between 8:30 AM and 9:30 AM.
NOTE: These may not be updated on Saturday and Sunday.
Click the image below to enlarge it.
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Summer outlook
Click to enlarge it. Then, you can read it better.
June through August
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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Click on the images to enlarge them
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.
You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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