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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Monday night – Some clouds. A chance for an evening thunderstorm.
Temperatures: Lows in the 60’s to lower 70’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. Gusty at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars in case there are a few storms.
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
What impact is expected? Scattered storms with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. Cooler. Less humid. Only a slight chance for a morning shower remaining over our southern and southeastern counties. Only a 10% chance for an afternoon shower.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph. An occasion gust to 15 mph possible.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation?
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny and nice. Below normal temperatures. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and cool. Nice weather.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation
What impact is expected? None
Thursday night – Partly cloudy and nice. Pleasant weather for August.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly sunny. Nice weather for August. Perhaps a little warmer and a little more humid.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Friday night – A few clouds. Nice weather for August, once again.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60’s .
Winds: East and northeast winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is low/medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Saturday – Partly sunny. Again, nice weather for August. A bit warmer and a little more humid as winds turn around to the south.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 80’s.
Winds: Southeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? Not expecting precipitation, but lower confidence
What impact is expected? None
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Nice weather anticipated on Tuesday through at least Friday.
2. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
The big story is the much anticipated drier and cooler air mass. I promised you more below normal temperature days in August than above normal. We will see how that forecast goes. The upcoming week will deliver a long streak of below normal temperature days. Woohoo!
I believe you are going to enjoy this weather. Imagine this in August. Lower humidity and below normal temperature days.
Precipitation chances Tuesday through Friday will be very low. I can’t rule out a stray shower on Tuesday, but believe the risk if only around 10%.
Some calm weather for the weatherman!
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Highlights
1. The rest of the work week
Expect nice weather to continue through this week.
I will be watching for southerly flow to return on Saturday and Sunday. When the winds turn from the north to the south you can expect a bit more moisture. If this does occur then I can’t rule out a few storms popping up.
The next big front might arrive next Tuesday or Wednesday. Long way out and confidence on this is about 40%. I will keep an eye on it.
Enjoy this wonderful week!
I am thinking September will bring above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation.
A bit soon for the fall forecast. But, I am already watching trends. Same for winter.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Other than some Monday evening storms, I am not expecting precipitation Tuesday through Friday. Small chances around Saturday and Sunday.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO for Tuesday.
Monday evening: A few storms possible
Tuesday: Not expecting storms
Wednesday: Not expecting storms
Thursday: Not expecting storms
Friday: Not expecting storms
Saturday: Small chance for a thunderstorm (10%)
Sunday: Small chance for a thunderstorm (10%)
No concerns! Expecting some very nice weather over the coming days.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
