Friday morning update
Thunderstorms are likely today. A few of storms could be intense with high winds. Most storms will remain below severe levels. Low end risk for damaging winds.
Locally heavy rain will occur under the thunderstorms. Some areas could pick up 1/2 to 1″ of rain per 30 minutes.
It now appears both Saturday and Sunday will remain dry. This is a change from previous forecasts. Thunderstorm chances may increase Sunday night and Monday as a warm front moves northward from Tennessee.
9:15 AM Radar
Storm tracking links
Interaction national radar
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/interactive/
Your live local city view interactive radars
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
Your Live Paducah City Interactive City View Radar
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/radar_paducah.htm
Your Live Poplar Bluff Interactive City View Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_pbluff.htm
Your Live Mt Vernon Interactive City View Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_mtver.htm
Your Live Northeast Arkansas and Missouri Bootheel City View Interactive Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_memphis.htm
Live Bootheel Interactive City View Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_dyers.htm
Your Live Purchase Area Interactive Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_hoptown.htm
Live Northwest Kentucky and Southeast Illinois City View Interactive Radar
http://weatherobservatory.com/radar_evans.htm
Visible satellite (only to be used during the day)
http://weather.weatherobservatory.com/maps/sats/vis/latest/uslowerohvalley.html
Live lightning tracker with zoom and pan features. You can see each bolt and adjust your viewing area. Lightning tracking website
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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 10, 2017
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered evening showers and thunderstorms over mostly southeast Missouri. Smaller chances elsewhere. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds variable at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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August 11, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for damaging winds.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Any remaining showers and thunderstorms will come to an end. Cooler north vs south. A boundary will divide the area.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 68 (cooler northern counties vs south) IL ~ 60 to 70 (cooler northern counties vs southern) KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph. winds becoming west/southwest.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? A few storms could produce strong winds. Low severe weather risk.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but I would check radars and updated numbers.
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August 12, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. A small chance for a thunderstorm. Most of the region should be dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 82 to 86 IL ~ 82 to 86 KY ~ 82 to 86 TN ~ 82 to 86
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Small chance for wet roadways and lightning along the KY/TN border southward.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Isolated shows and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds mostly northerly.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates.
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August 13, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: North and northeast winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely, but monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates
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August 14, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance for scattered thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 84 IL ~ 76 to 84 KY ~ 76 to 84 TN ~ 76 to 84
Winds: East winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates. There will be a cold front near our region. Rain is possible.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 15, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: North and northeast winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans.
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August 15, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
Winds: Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Variable less than 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Thursday night through Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
We will have thunderstorms in the forecast, but the severe weather risk is low. Lightning will be the main concern. A couple of storms could produce high winds, but the overall risk is low.
If stronger storms were to occur they would most likely be on Friday and again on Sunday.
A fairly active weather pattern over the coming days. Plenty to monitor.
A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible this evening and tonight. The best chance would be over northern parts of southeast Missouri and a sliver of southwest Illinois. Majority of the region will have lower rain chances and should remain dry.
See local radars to check on precipitation
Looking ahead
We have a few weak disturbances to monitor over the coming days. Each will deliver rain and thunderstorm chances. The problem is timing and coverage.
I have two peak time periods for showers and thunderstorms. One of those will be Friday and the other will be Sunday.
This has not been an easy forecast. At one time Saturday appeared to be a widespread rain event. Now, guidance is showing sunshine. This is one reason I have been telling everyone to check back frequently for updates.
Confidence is lower than normal in the overall forecast. Timing these weak disturbances is tricky. Even trickier is how much rain coverage to paint on the weather map.
We do need rain. Much of the region is and has been drier than normal for the past four to six weeks. Yes, some of you have experienced decent rain, but many have not.
Here is the updated drought monitor map (click to enlarge)
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I did make some adjustments this morning (esp for Saturday). I was thinking today is when confidence would grow (as far as the details).
There might be a bit of a temperature range Saturday. This will depend on the placement of the frontal boundary.
Forecast lows for Saturday morning.
Hurricane Franklin will continue to push into Mexico over the coming days. It appears that the moisture for Franklin will remain to our south and southwest. Occasionally, systems like this will push moisture into our region. It appears that is unlikely with Franklin.
Franklin
Here are the updated six to ten day temperature and precipitation probability maps.
What is the percentage chance of them averaging normal, below normal, or above normal.
Six to ten day temperature outlook for Tuesday, August 15th through Saturday, August 19th
As you can see, probabilities favor below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation.
Six to ten day precipitation outlook for Tuesday, August 15th through Saturday, August 19th
Eight to fourteen day temperature outlook for Saturday, August 19th through Wednesday, August 23rd
Eight to fourteen day precipitation outlook for Saturday, August 19th through Wednesday, August 23rd
Eclipse Weather
Ensembles are showing rain and clouds for the eclipse. It is still way too early for a real forecast, but I don’t like the ensembles. They would indicate poor viewing conditions. Let’s hope they are wrong.
This is the same model, but run with slightly different beginning parameters. The goal is to see how many of the panels agree. Large agreement raises confidence in the forecast. We are pushing the envelop for extended range. PLENTY of days to monitor. Plenty of days for adjustments. Confidence in the forecast probably won’t rise until next Thursday.
The EC guidance is drier than the GFS guidance. Battle of the models. Long way off, still.
Right now, the yellow boxes indicate a model run that shows clouds and rain. Obviously, this is not great news. The good news, however, is that we still have many days left for adjustments and changes.
Fingers crossed.
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I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
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In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
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