August 10th 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

.

7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATON TO LOCATION.

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

.

Tuesday to Tuesdasy

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Today through Friday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce wind damage over the upcoming week. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely. There is an isolated tornado risk if a storm can latch onto a boundary.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce excessive rain. Locally heavy downpours can drop an inch or two of rain in less than thirty minutes. Same as recent weeks.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? Yes. Monday into Thursday. Expect 100 to 105 degrees. Occasionally, higher.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

August 10th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms possible during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 94° / SE MO 92° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 94° / South IL 92° to 94° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 94° / West KY 92° to 94° / NW TN 92° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:53 PM
.

There is a small chance that a line of thunderstorms forms over central Missouri and central Illinois Tuesday afternoon and evening and then moves into our region. If that were to happen, then I would need to raise rain chances.

Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance of thunderstorms. Some storms could be intense, especially over our northern counties.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight. Chances are lower after midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the weather radars.
Moonrise: 8:06 AM
Moonset: 9:32 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 11th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Isolated thunderstorms are again possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 92° to 95° / SE MO 92° to 95° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 92° to 95° / South IL 92° to 95° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 92° to 95° / West KY 92° to 95° / NW TN 92° to 95°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:52 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Warm and humid. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 9 PM. Chances are lower after 9 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 9:12 AM
Moonset: 10:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 12th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. Hot and humid. Scattered thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Storm chances will be higher during the PM vs the AM hours.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 94° to 96° / SE MO 94° to 96° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 94° to 96° / South IL 94° to 96° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 94° to 96° / West KY 94° to 96° / NW TN 94° to 96°
Wind direction and speed: From the southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 100° to 110°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 10. Very high
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
Sunset: 7:51 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy Warm and humid. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° / SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° / South IL 72° to 75° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° / West KY 72° to 75° / NW TN 672° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest at 5 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 73° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 10:20 AM
Moonset: 10:29 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 13th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warm and humid. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 50% / the rest of SE MO ~ 50% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / the rest of South IL ~ 50% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 88° to 94° / SE MO 88° to 94° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 88° to 92° / South IL 88° to 92° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 88° to 94° / West KY 88° to 94° / NW TN 88° to 94°
Wind direction and speed: From the west southwest at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 96° to 104°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. Very high
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
.

Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Turning a bit cooler and less humid. A cold front will push through the region.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / the rest of South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Higher chances before midnight vs after
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 66° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 66° to 72° / South IL 66° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 66° to 72° / West KY 66° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, Monitor updates.
Moonrise: 11:27 AM
Moonset: 10:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 14th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Not as humid. A slight chance of a shower.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None for most areas. An isolated shower or thunderstorm possible over the Missouri Bootheel, Kentucky, and Tennessee.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northwest at 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
.

Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:37 PM
Moonset: 11:31 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent

August 15th, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 10% / the rest of SE MO ~ 10% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% / the rest of South IL ~ 10% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 84° to 88° / SE MO 84° to 88° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 84° to 88° / South IL 84° to 88° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 84° to 88° / West KY 84° to 88° / NW TN 84° to 88°
Wind direction and speed: From the west northwest at 10 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 84° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:12 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
.

Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: North at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:47 PM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: First Quarter

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click the images to enlarge them.

Agriculture outlook from the University of Kentucky.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Temperature and heat index/livestock heat-stress.

Temperature, humidity, and dew point. Remember, dew point is what makes it feel muggy outside. Dew points in the 70s are oppressive.

Double click these graphics to enlarge them. These graphics are from Monday. Tuesday’s graphics will be updated after 10:30 AM or as soon as they are finished.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Kentucky

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. These graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

.

.

.Tennessee

Check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page. This graphics below are auto-generated. My actual forecast may vary from these.

The seven-day graphic at the top of the page is the one I hand make. See that one for my personal forecast.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Today through August 13th: There is a chance of a few thunderstorms producing wind damage. There is also an isolated tornado risk. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Sometimes these storms can latch onto a boundary and rotate.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
.

72-hour precipitation outlook.
.
.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Discussion

1. Hot and muggy.
2. Thunderstorm chances.
3. Cold front arrives Thursday and exits the region Friday night.
4. Cooler and drier Saturday and Sunday.

Weather advice:

Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.

If you must work outside, then be careful with high heat index values. It will be muggy this week.

Monitor watches and warnings. A few storms could be severe this week.

Weather Discussion

The last 24-hours was a bit more quiet than the previous 24-hours.

We did have a few showers and thunderstorms on radar yesterday and last night. Nothing too extreme other than some locally heavy summer rains. Most areas were dry.

We have a series of disturbances pushing through the region over the coming days. Models are not in agreement as to whether we will actually experience much in the way of measurable rainfall from these systems.

Thunderstorms later today and tonight:

The models have waffled back and forth concerning the potential for some severe thunderstorms later today and tonight.

At one point, the Storm Prediction Center had outlined the entire region for severe weather today. This morning they drastically cut that outlook area and shoved it north. This is just an indicator of the lower than average confidence on the eventual outcome of the chance of thunderstorms later today and tonight.

I am watching these thunderstorms in Kansas. This is the 6:30 AM radar (live radar while I am typing the blog).

Those could be the focus for new storms as they move into Missouri throughout the day. If they hold together then they could form a squall line (line of thunderstorms) and push east/southeast. I will be monitoring them.

I have low-end thunderstorm chances. There is the possibility that a line of storms could form in Missouri and Illinois and push into our region. The odds of that happening, however, appear low. I will monitor trends in the guidance and adjust the forecast if necessary.

The model guidance is split on the subject. See the future-cast radars below. You can see they differ dramatically.

For now, I have lower-end thunderstorm chances. Scattered thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm chances will continue into Friday evening/night. The timing of the cold frontal passage will need to be monitored.

A cold front will push through the region Thursday and Friday. This front will help enhance shower and thunderstorm chances. Peak chances will likely be Friday and Friday evening along and right behind the cold front.

Some models hang the front in the region through Sunday. For now, I have the front pushing southward Friday. If the front were to hang up then rain chances would continue through at least Saturday.

I have low-end shower/thunderstorm chances Saturday to cover the possibility that we have a few remaining showers and thunderstorms.

Heat and high dew points (muggy)

The other weather story, through Thursday, will be the heat and high dew points.

It is going to fell like summer. Anyone that receives rain will be even muggier. Dew points will be the air you wear type numbers. Not the best for outdoor work.

The high dew points will combine with temperatures in the 90s for heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees. There will be pockets of 105 to 110 degrees. Hot.

Your body cares about the heat index. The heat index is what your body responds to. These numbers can be dangerous if you are outside too long.

Double click images on this page to enlarge them.

Heat index values will be high over the coming days. Uncomfortable and at times, dangerous.

Today

Tomorrow

Thursday

Friday

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.