August 1, 2023: Flash flood threat increasing.

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Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

Note:
** A difficult forecast. There will be periods of extremely heavy rain for some counties. Flash flooding likely. Monitor updates and your Beau Dodson Weather App over the coming week. **

Statement from the National Weather Service

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 /333 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023/

...Multi-Day Rain and Thunderstorm Threat Poses a Flash Flood
Risk...

Storms may develop as early as pre-dawn Tuesday across parts of
southeast Missouri. More thunderstorms are expected to develop
Tuesday night over southeast Missouri. With another, potentially
heavier round over parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky
Wednesday night. Daily thunderstorm chances then persist until a
larger scale storm system approaches from the west on Sunday.

Thunderstorms are forecast to move from northwest to southeast
particularly through Wednesday morning, potentially training over
the same areas which would lead to significant rainfall totals.
Areas across southeast Missouri are drier and would be able to
handle more rain without flooding, but may still see enough rain
to cause flooding. Areas of southern Illinois and western
Kentucky as well as southwest Indiana have seen much heavier
recent rainfall and would be vulnerable to flash flooding.

Areas that experienced historic flooding recently may also have
debris/trees/brush in creeks and streams that may back up drainage
system and cause water to rise faster than it normally would.
Citizens and communities are encouraged to clear storm drainage
systems ahead of the arrival of this system. Maintain awareness of
the potential threat and check back for updates. Flash flood
watches will almost certainly be issued in the coming days,
possibly across the entire area in the hours preceding flood
risk. The timing, placement, and magnitude of each day`s event
should get clearer as each day evolves.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

Today’s almanac numbers from a few select local cities.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

Then, it shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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48-hour forecast

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Tuesday to Tuesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today into the weekend. Stay weather aware.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Yes. Storms over the coming days could produce gusty wind and hail. Some severe weather can’t be ruled out.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Flash flooding is likely this week. Some counties could receive more than six inches of rain. Monitor updates throughout the week as the forecast becomes more in focus. I will be sending out Beau Dodson Weather App messages.

4. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? Monitor.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.

6. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? No.

7. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? No.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines

Tuesday, August 1, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mainly over southeast Missouri this morning.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over mainly southeast Missouri
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 84°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 82° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 84°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 82° to 84°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 84° to 88°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 88°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather App
UV Index: 9. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 8:03 PM
.

Tuesday night Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Mainly late at night.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
Southeast Missouri ~ 64° to 68°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 64° to 68°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 62° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 64° to 68°
Far western Kentucky ~ 64° to 68°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 64° to 68°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 64° to 68°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms. Flash flood potential.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and check the Beau Dodson Weather App
Moonrise: 8:35 PM
Moonset: 5:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Wednesday, August 2, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be highest before noon. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 84°
Southeast Missouri ~ 82° to 85°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 84° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 84°
Southern Illinois ~ 82° to 85°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms. Flash flood potential.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 7. High
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:02 PM
.

Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Especially late at night. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60%
Far western Kentucky ~ 60%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 68° to 72°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 68° to 72°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: East southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms. Flash flood potential.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:12 PM
Moonset: 6:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Thursday, August 3, 2023
Confidence in the forecast? High Confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
Southeast Missouri ~ 88° to 90°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 88° to 92°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Southern Illinois ~ 88° to 90°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 88° to 90°
Far western Kentucky ~ 88° to 90°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 88° to 90°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 88° to 92°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 88° to 92°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms. Flash flood potential.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 9. Very high
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 8:01 PM
.

Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 20%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: South 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty wind near storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:44 PM
Moonset: 8:05 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights

1. Warm temperatures.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances.
3. Flash flooding is a major concern for some counties.
4. Severe weather potential.

Weather advice:

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Forecast Discussion

Today’s Average Regional Forecast Numbers

Temperatures will vary based on cloud cover and precipitation. Keep that in mind.

Flash flood threats.

Good day, everyone.

I hope you had a nice Monday!

The weather is about to turn on us, again.

Our June forecast was for drought.

Our July forecast was for it to be extremely wet and very stormy for the region. The Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service had their second wettest July on record.

Most of the region experienced substantial rain during the Month of July. A few spots, however, received less.

Some counties approached TWENTY inches of rain! Again, just an incredible month of weather.

Here is the July rainfall total estimates.

Double click images to enlarge them.

The Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service also issued the 2nd most severe weather warnings for any given month! April 2011 was number one.

That is just unreal for a summer month. This is supposed to be the quiet time of the year. Highly unusual.

August is going to come roaring in with more flash flooding and some severe weather.

Let’s break it down.

This morning, a large MCS has delivered 3 to 6 inches of rain to portions of central Missouri. Flash flood warnings continue in that area. That is outside of my forecast zones. That is where it was forecast to track.

You can see that MCS on this morning’s IR satellite.

You are looking at cloud top temperatures. Red and deep red represent very cold temperatures. Thunderstorms towering 60,000+ into the atmosphere.

Some of those showers and thunderstorms will make their way into my far western counties. Towards Butler County, Missouri.

I do not expect the storms to be severe.

The rest of today will deliver a lull in shower and thunderstorm activity.

Tonight, thunderstorms will rapidly develop in northern and eastern Missouri. The heavy thunderstorms will track southeast into at least southeast Missouri and perhaps into portions of Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

This will be yet another MCS (thunderstorm complex).

The farther west you travel the higher the probability of rain tonight into tomorrow morning.

Let me show you some model graphics.

Here is where this morning’s flash flood event is occurring.

To our west. That model is overdone in southeast Missouri. You can see that band, but that seems unlikely.

Here are two models for tonight’s event.

This one shows the heaviest rain remaining over Missouri.

And this one is a bit farther east.

The exact location needs to be monitored. A few counties west or east will make a big difference in rain totals for your location.

This band of rain will produce pockets of 3 to 5 inches of rain. Locally higher. Flash flood warnings may be necessary in some counties.

Those showers and thunderstorms will linger into tomorrow morning.

Then, there will be a bit of a lull tomorrow afternoon as the atmosphere recharges.

Wednesday night a large thunderstorm complex will develop over Missouri and Illinois. It will track southeast into our region.

The EC model lightning data shows this nicely.

This complex will drop pockets of 3 to 6 inches of rain. Potentially higher. This will likely trigger additional flash flood warnings in our region.

That system is forecast to track right over us.

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible in the region Thursday, but there will be somewhat of a decrease in activity as the day wears on.

We will then have to watch Thursday night for another MCS/thunderstorm complex. This one may push a tad farther to the east. But, would still include portions of southern Illinois into western Kentucky.

The EC tracks the Thursday night event right over our area, again.

How far west or east that MCS tracks will be determined by what happens Wednesday night and Thursday morning.

Stay updated on the latest weather information via your Beau Dodson Weather app over the coming days.

Some of the thunderstorms could produce isolated wind damage, as well. Widespread severe weather is unlikely through Friday.

Occasionally, these overnight thunderstorms can produce downburst winds. That can cause pockets of tree and power line damage.

Another system will bring scattered thunderstorms to the region Saturday and Sunday. Perhaps higher coverage Sunday.

Sunday’s thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, damaging wind, and hail. Frequent lightning, as well. Sunday’s event has a higher chance of producing severe weather. Monitor updates.

Any of the thunderstorms today through Sunday could be prolific lightning producers.

Rain totals of 3 to 6 inches will be possible in some counties between now and Sunday night. There could be pockets of six to ten inches of rain, as well.

Please avoid flooded roadways. Each year people die driving through flood waters. Don’t become one of those people.

It will be warm through Sunday, but the extreme heat and high heat index values will stay to our southwest behind the thunderstorm complexes.

The WPC/NOAA has outlined our region for a flash flood risk into the weekend.

Today’s excessive rainfall outlook (flash flood outlook)

Tomorrow tomorrow night’s excessive rainfall outlook (flash flood outlook)

Thursday and Thursday night’s excessive rainfall outlook (flash flood outlook)

Here is a statement from the Paducah, Kentucky, NWS

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
233 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 /333 AM EDT Tue Aug 1 2023/

...Multi-Day Rain and Thunderstorm Threat Poses a Flash Flood
Risk...

Storms may develop as early as pre-dawn Tuesday across parts of
southeast Missouri. More thunderstorms are expected to develop
Tuesday night over southeast Missouri. With another, potentially
heavier round over parts of southern Illinois and western Kentucky
Wednesday night. Daily thunderstorm chances then persist until a
larger scale storm system approaches from the west on Sunday.

Thunderstorms are forecast to move from northwest to southeast
particularly through Wednesday morning, potentially training over
the same areas which would lead to significant rainfall totals.
Areas across southeast Missouri are drier and would be able to
handle more rain without flooding, but may still see enough rain
to cause flooding. Areas of southern Illinois and western
Kentucky as well as southwest Indiana have seen much heavier
recent rainfall and would be vulnerable to flash flooding.

Areas that experienced historic flooding recently may also have
debris/trees/brush in creeks and streams that may back up drainage
system and cause water to rise faster than it normally would.
Citizens and communities are encouraged to clear storm drainage
systems ahead of the arrival of this system. Maintain awareness of
the potential threat and check back for updates. Flash flood
watches will almost certainly be issued in the coming days,
possibly across the entire area in the hours preceding flood
risk. The timing, placement, and magnitude of each day`s event
should get clearer as each day evolves.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today through April 18th: A couple of the Saturday afternoon and night thunderstorms could produce damaging wind and hail. The tornado risk is low, but not zero. Mainly over Missouri for the tornado risk. The line will weaken with time as it moves farther east.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Tornado Probability Outlook

Large Hail Probability Outlook

High wind Probability Outlook

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
..

_______________________________________

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Green represents light rain. Dark green represents moderate rain. Yellow and orange represent heavier rain.

This animation is the Hrrr Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

This animation is the FV3 Model.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 90 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 70 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
.

Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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