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This forecast update covers southern Illinois, southeast Missouri, western Kentucky. and northwest Tennessee.
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August 1, 2017
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: Southerly winds at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? For most areas, none. Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 2, 2017
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. Humid. Scattered storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South and southwest winds at 6 to 12 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars for some storms.
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Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. The best chance will be during the evening hours.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered to scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
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Radars
Your local city view interactive radars
http://www.weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
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August 3, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm and humid. A chance for widely scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon.
Temperatures: MO ~ 84 to 88 IL ~ 84 to 88 KY ~ 84 to 88 TN ~ 84 to 88
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty winds during the afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds in thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
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Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A band of late night showers and thunderstorms passing through the region from northwest to southeast.
Temperatures: MO ~ 66 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 72 KY ~ 66 to 72 TN ~ 66 to 72
Winds: South winds at 8 to 16 mph. Winds becoming southwest and then eventually west/northwest behind the cold front (late Thursday night).
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Most likely late.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Small risk for strong winds in thunderstorms
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (the bulk of the activity will be after 10 pm)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B, in case there are some rain showers/storms in the region. The greatest chance for showers and storms will arrive late Thursday night into Friday morning.
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August 4, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Some morning clouds with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low confidence on timing of frontal passage. If the front is slower, then rain chances linger until mid-morning. Becoming partly to mostly sunny as the day wears on. Dew points falling to comfortable levels as the day wears on.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: West and northwest at 8 to 16 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some morning wet roadways and lightning (before 11 am)
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Rain will end from west to east. A band of showers and storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates in case the front is slower than anticipated.
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Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Clearing. Cooler. Less humid. Pleasant night. Great camping weather.
Temperatures: MO ~ 56 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 64 KY ~ 56 to 64 TN ~ 56 to 64
Winds: North winds at 6 to 12 mph early becoming north and northwest at 0 to 5 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 5, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Cooler. Less humid. Some fair weather cumulus clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: North winds at 6 to 12 mph. Winds becoming east/northeast at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Starry night. Cool. Less humid. Nice camping weather. A slight chance for thunderstorms over southeast Missouri after 3 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 56 to 62 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 58 to 64
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming east and northeast at 3 to 6 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None for most of the area. Small risk for wet roadways and lightning over southeast Missouri after 3 am.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: For most of the area, none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
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August 6, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy. A bit warmer. A chance for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low confidence.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 84 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
Winds: North winds at 5 to 10 mph. Winds becoming variable in direction.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Scattered thunderstorms possible. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars.
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August 7, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Warm. A chance for a few thunderstorms.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some scattered wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Low confidence.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: South and southwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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August 8, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 78 to 84 IL ~ 78 to 84 KY ~ 78 to 84 TN ~ 78 to 84
Winds: South winds at 5 to 10 mph.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~ 60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds:Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments possible
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
A severe thunderstorm is defined as a storm that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado. That is the official National Weather Service definition of a severe thunderstorm.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday night. A few storms.
Thursday and Friday: Thunderstorms are possible along an incoming cold front. A few of the storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain and lighting will be the main concern. Small risk for damaging winds.
Saturday into Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms are possible Sunday afternoon and night. Again on Monday. A bit early to know if strong storms will be a concern. Monitor updates.
Welcome to August.
July was hit and miss in the rainfall department (see a longer discussion on the subscriber page ~ here)
As is typically the case, thunderstorms were hit and miss. Portions of the region were wet. Portions of the region were dry. Typical summer.
Temperatures were near normal with above normal dew points (made it feel hotter).
Evansville
Carbondale
Cape Girardeau
We have another strong cold front moving towards the region. It arrives on Thursday night and Friday. This front will deliver additional shower and thunderstorm chances. It will also mean a return to cooler air and lower dew points.
Officially, the Storm Prediction Center, has placed portions of the region in a marginal risk for strong storms on Thursday afternoon and night. Perhaps a few storms with gusty winds. I will keep an eye on it.
Here is the updated lightning forecast for Wednesday through next Tuesday
Rainfall totals, with this next system, will be mixed. A lot of data is showing less than 0.50″. It would not surprise me if some of you walk away with no rain at all. Same as the past thirty days. Hit and miss.
Let’s look at some guidance rainfall totals.
This is the GFS rainfall forecast. It is bullish, but likely overdone. Even it shows small totals in some of our counties.
Keep in mind, this is guidance and not gospel. Models don’t handle exact details all that well. Just use this as a general idea of what might happen.
Again, models don’t agree on totals. Typical.
The EC guidance indicates scattered totals of 0.25″ to 0.50″. Thunderstorms, can always produce higher totals. Notice some of our counties remain dry. Nature of the best during the summer months.
The Canadian model guidance.
Temperatures will be quite warm ahead of the front and cooler behind the front.
Wednesday high temperatures.
Thursday high temperatures.
Check out Friday. The front moves through the region and we cool down. Expect highs in the middle to upper 70’s. If the front slows a bit then lower 80’s will be possible.
The GFS goes hog wild with the cooler air. Perhaps this is overdone for our northern counties.
Dew points will fall, as well.
Remember, dew points control how it feels outside. Sticky? Humid? Uncomfortable?
Here are the Thursday dew points. Humid.
Check out Friday evening. MUCH nicer dew points! We can live with that. Friday night will provide nice camping weather. Saturday into Sunday morning, as well.
Future-cast radar. What radar MIGHT look like as the front passes through the region.
Thursday at 7 pm. A band of showers and thunderstorms along the cold front to our northwest. Rain is moving southeast.
Thursday 10 pm
Friday 1 am
Friday 4 am
Friday 7 am
Rain exits on Friday morning. Cooler and less humid air filters in behind the cold front.
Another system could spark showers and storms on Sunday afternoon and night. I am watching another system around next Wednesday and Thursday. Still some time to monitor both of those systems.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
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The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
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The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
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The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
