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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️
April 9th to April 15th
Current risk: MONITOR.
Current confidence level: Medium.
Comments: I am monitoring next Tuesday.
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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook
1. Is lightning in the forecast? POSSIBLE. I will monitor this coming weekend and next week. I do have scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast this weekend. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lower chances over Kentucky/Tennessee. See the rain probability graphics below.
Thunderstorm chances should increase Monday into Tuesday night (perhaps Wednesday). Right now, peak chances appear to be centered around Tuesday. Monitor updates.
2. Are organized severe thunderstorms. MONITOR. I am monitoring next week. In particular, I am watching Tuesday. Check back for updates.
3. Is significant or widespread flash flooding in the forecast? NO.
4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.
5. Will the temperature rise above 90 degrees? NO.
6. Is the heat index forecast to rise above 100 degrees? NO.
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⛈️ Here is the short-range thunderstorm concern meter.
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⛈️ Here is the extended thunderstorm concern meter.
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Here is your bus stop forecast
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This morning
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This afternoon
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Tomorrow morning
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Tomorrow afternoon
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Seven-day outlook graphic.
See the video and graphics below for more details specific to your county. This is a broad-brush overview of the entire region.
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Forecast discussion
- Warmer temperatures.
- A few showers and thunderstorms across mainly southeast Missouri and southern Illinois from Friday into Monday morning. The chances are lower in Kentucky and Tennessee.
- Those thunderstorm chances will increase across the entire region from Monday into Tuesday night. Perhaps Wednesday.
- It is still too early to know if severe weather will be a concern, but I am monitoring Tuesday.
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What is the primary weather concern today and tonight?
No weather concerns through tonight.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible tomorrow.
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Here are the early morning current conditions. These are the 4 AM readings.
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A quiet weather pattern continues across the area. No significant weather concerns through tonight.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday into Sunday. Mainly west of the Mississippi River and north of the Ohio River. See the graphics below.
Don’t expect much, and many areas will simply remain dry.
It will be quite warm from Wednesday into next week. Above-average temperatures. The eighties will return to the forecast.
A stronger system will approach the region early next week. That should increase the probability of showers and thunderstorms.
There are some signals for stronger thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday, but this is still several days out. Monitor updated forecasts.
For now, let’s just enjoy the quiet weather!
Here are the expected rain totals from Friday through early Saturday morning. As you can see, it is centered over Missouri and Illinois. Lower totals south and east of the Ohio River.
Keep in mind, this will shift eastward as we move through Monday and Tuesday. Perhaps Wednesday, as well (depending on the speed of the front).
Double-click on images to enlarge them.
Central view of our region.
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Missouri view
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Let’s look at those rain probabilities.
What is the % chance of rain? A lot of the chances are for southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (through Sunday, at least). Then, chances begin to increase across the rest of the region as we move into Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
This first graphic is the % chance of rain from Friday 7 AM to Friday 7 PM
Double-click images to enlarge them.
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What is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Friday to 7 AM Saturday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Saturday to 7 PM Saturday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Saturday to 7 AM Sunday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Sunday to 7 PM Sunday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Sunday to 7 AM Monday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Monday to 7 PM Monday
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This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 PM Monday to 7 AM Tuesday
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It is possible that the Tuesday onward numbers increase. This will depend heavily on the placement of the cold or stationary front.
This next graphic is the % chance of rain from 7 AM Tuesday to 7 PM Tuesday
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Again, it is too soon to know if severe thunderstorms will be a concern. I will know more over the coming days.
A lot of the data keeps the threat of severe weather to our west on Monday and Tuesday.
Monitor updated forecasts.
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
This model pops most of the storms east northeast of our region (on Thursday PM)
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
RRFS Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
EC Model
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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu. 12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.
Green is rain. Yellow is moderate rain. Orange indicates locally heavy rain.
Double-click the animation to enlarge it.
NAM Model
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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.20″
Six to Ten Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s. Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below-average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 43 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.30″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.
Blue is below average. Red is above average. The no color zone represents equal chances.
Green is above average precipitation. Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation. Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
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