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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible this afternoon into early Saturday morning.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching this afternoon and tonight. A few storms could reach severe levels.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. A few storms could produce locally heavy rain this afternoon into early Saturday morning.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Some could be intense.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 50% MO Bootheel ~ 50% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 40% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Afternoon
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 80° to 82° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 76° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. Gusty wind in storms. Hail in storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% MO Bootheel ~ 100% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% South IL ~ 90% West KY ~ 90% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 55° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 7 to 14 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 5:14 AM
Moonset: 4:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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April 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: A chance of morning showers and thunderstorms. Intervals of clouds. Cooler. Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 40% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered/ending early in the day.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 64° to 68° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph. Higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Precipitation will end early in the morning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars early in the day.
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. A chance of a light shower over northern portions of southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 10% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered (northern counties). Lower chance across the rest of the region.
Timing of the rain: Before 4 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 46° to 48° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 8 to 16 mph before midnight. West after midnight 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:08 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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April 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few clouds from time to time.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: West 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? N0
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 46° to 50° South IL 46° to 50° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° West KY 48° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:32 AM
Moonset: 7:11 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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April 12, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 10% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% South IL ~ 10% West KY ~ 10% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Timing of the rain: None
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset: 7:28 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 45° to 50° SE MO 40° to 45° South IL 40° to 45° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:56 AM
Moonset: 8:09 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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April 13, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 62° to 65° South IL 62° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:23 AM
Sunset: 7:29 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:22 AM
Moonset: 9:07 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 14, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 30% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point of the day
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° SE MO 60° to 65° South IL 60° to 65° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 64° to 68°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset: 7:30 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a light showers. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° SE MO 42° to 45° South IL 42° to 44° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 44° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 44° to 48°
Wind direction and speed: North 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:50 AM
Moonset: 10:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 10th. A few storms could reach severe levels this afternoon and tonight. Overall, the risk appears to be lower-end. With that said, it only takes one bad storm to ruin the day. Let’s keep an eye on it.
The risk is higher over southern Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:
Thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight could produce locally heavy rain, lightning, gusty wind, and even hail. Monitor updates in case a storm or two reaches severe levels.
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Weather Discussion
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- Thunderstorm chances today and tonight.
- Rain ending Saturday.
- Cooler temperatures into next week.
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The primary weather story over the next 24 to 36 hours will be an area of low pressure that is going to rapidly deepen and move into the Ohio Valley.
This will drag a cold front into our region Friday night and Saturday morning.
This front will be the focus of showers and thunderstorms.
Rain totals are going to vary and confidence is low (in final totals).
Showers and thunderstorms to our south could interrupt the flow of moisture into our region. If this happens, then rain totals will be lower.
You can see that on the NAM future-cast radar. We will just have to see how this unfolds later today and into the overnight hours.
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Let me show you three models and then the NWS rainfall forecast.
NAM model
NAM 3K model
Hrrr model
WPC model (NWS)
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We will also have to deal with gusty gradient winds Friday into Saturday. That will be because of the area of low pressure moving across the region. It will tighten up the pressure gradient.
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A warm front will also drift northward through Arkansas Friday morning and afternoon. The warm front will help produce lift.
Showers and thunderstorms, some intense, are forecast to form over southern Missouri Friday afternoon and evening.
A few storms could form just about anywhere in the region Friday afternoon and evening (the chance appears higher, however, over southern Missouri).
The storms will then move northeast at 30 to 40 mph.
A few of these storms could produce heavy rain, frequent lightning, gusty wind, and even hail.
There is a lot of disagreement about how intense the storms will be.
Thunderstorms to our south may rob of us moisture. If that happens, then the threat of severe storms will be lower.
The primary area of low pressure will push into the region Friday night. This will bring increasing chances of thunderstorms.
We will need to monitor southern Missouri into far western Kentucky and northwest Tennessee for the threat of a storm or two producing damaging wind gusts and hail. The main time frame would be 3 PM Friday afternoon through 3 AM Saturday morning,.
The area of showers and thunderstorms will push across the entire area before sunrise Saturday.
There may still be some showers left over western Kentucky and southwest Illinois before 10 AM Saturday, but the bulk should be over.
If the system speeds up slightly then almost all of Saturday (after sunrise) will be dry.
See the future-cast radars below.
That will then leave us with mostly dry conditions Saturday night into Monday.
I do have low-end light shower chances over our northern counties (see the text forecast at the top of the blog). That is because of an upper level low that will be near the Great Lakes.
How far south that low drifts or is located will determine if some light showers actually occur.
Cool conditions next week with on and off light shower chances.
Our sustained warmth is still not in the weather cards.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 10th through April 15th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers April 16th through April 22nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers April 23rd through May 6th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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