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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Friday night – Freeze warning covers most of the region. A freeze is possible.
Saturday night – Monitor updates. Freeze conditions are again possible.
Sunday night – No concerns for frost
Monday night -No concerns for frost
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday night – Monitor updates
Thursday night – Monitor updates
Friday Night – Freeze Warning (see graphic below) Partly cloudy. A few showers early in the evening. Sprinkles. Frost or freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: Winds becoming variable at 3-6 mph. Winds are important for Saturday night. If the winds stay up then frost chances decrease.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze possible.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cool start to the day. Perhaps partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: North winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze early in the morning will be possible.
Saturday Night – Some clouds towards morning. Chilly. Not as cold as Friday night.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range.
Winds: Winds becoming southeast at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost or freeze.
Sunday – Some clouds. Warmer. Windy, at times. I am monitoring an incoming system for Monday and Tuesday. There could be some warm air advection showers on Sunday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 10-20 mph. Gusts to 35 mph in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30% mainly in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but a few showers can’t be ruled out.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if showers end up developing.
Sunday Night – Mostly cloudy. An increasing chance for showers. Perhaps a thunderstorm towards morning. More likely through the day on Monday.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph with gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to becoming widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but some showers possible
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Monday – Cloudy. Widespread showers. Maybe a rumble of thunder.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds at times ahead of our next system. Winds becoming more west late in the day.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 42 to 46 degree range
Winds: Winds becoming northwest and north at 8-16 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers and storms are possible Monday and Monday night. Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Mainly early in the day. Most of the rain should be over by Tuesday.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: North winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Freeze warning for Friday night and Saturday morning
- Saturday night will be cold, as well. But, perhaps not as cold.
- Small chances for showers on Sunday
- Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday night and Monday
The main weather story for the short term will be the cold temperatures Friday night into Saturday morning. A freeze warning covers almost the entire area. Expect upper 20s to lower 30s by Saturday morning. Many areas will remain below freezing for a few hours late Friday night and early Saturday morning.
Here is the freeze warning outline (in blue)
Saturday will be a decent day across the area. It won’t be warm. But, it could be worse. Turn on the news and watch the snowflakes flying across several areas of the United States. I guess we can’t complain about our weather.
Here is the NAM model guidance for Saturday morning low temperatures
Here are the high temperatures for Saturday afternoon. I did not like the NAM models forecast. They were too low for Saturday afternoon. So, I picked another chart for those temperatures.
Sunday will be a bit warmer on southerly winds. A small chance for a stray shower on Sunday.
Sunday temperatures at 1 pm. Quite mild. And, temperatures will rise a few more degrees after 1 pm. Middle to upper 60s quite possible on Sunday. Not too bad for early April.
Rain and thunderstorm chances increase into the likely category by Monday and Monday evening. This as a system pulls out of the southwest and moves towards our region. We should be on the cool side of this event. Odd, yes. And, that means mostly rain with some embedded thunderstorms possible. Some downpours not out of the question. Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ are possible with this next system. And, local amounts may top one inch. Especially true in thunderstorms.
Officially the Storm Prediction Center had us outlined for severe storms on Monday. But, I just don’t see enough instability. I see in their latest update they removed us from the risk zone.
We should remain on the cool side of this system. Thus, I do not expect severe thunderstorms. What a quiet quiet spring this has been. Very unusual. We will take it! And, we will hope it continues.
We should dry out by Tuesday morning. That will leave us with colder temperatures for the middle of next week. Will it be cold enough for another frost/freeze? Stay tuned. I can’t rule it out. Still several days to monitor temperature trends.
I am not tracking any severe weather systems through the middle of next week.
Let’s look at the GFS guidance on the rain event for early next week. The GFS does bring a few showers into the area on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps scattered. Most of Sunday should be okay. But, I can’t rule out some light showers later in the day into Sunday night.
This first image is for Sunday at 7 pm. Some green over our area. Maybe a few showers. More likely on Sunday night and especially Monday.
This next map is for Monday morning at 7 am. Solid chances for showers in the region. Maybe a rumble of thunder.
Monday evening at 7 pm. Green is rain. There could be some bands of heavier rain on the north side of the system. We will monitor for that.
This next map is for Tuesday morning at 7 am. Still some showers in the region. Precipitation should be on the way out by Tuesday.
This last map is for 1 pm on Tuesday. Still a few showers on the GFS guidance. We will see how fast it exits.
I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Saturday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday – A few storms possible late Sunday night (more likely on Monday)
Monday – Thunderstorms are possible. Not anticipating severe weather.
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
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No major changes in this update.
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Frost update for the orchards/others.
Saturday night – Monitor updates.
Sunday night – No concerns
Monday night -No concerns
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday night – Monitor updates
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday night into Monday night. Centered on Monday. Right now the severe weather risk appears small. As always, monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday night into Monday night. A few light showers possible on Sunday afternoon. But, the main activity will be centered on Monday.
Rainfall totals of 0.50″-1.00″ appear likely from the Monday event. And, locally higher totals are possible if thunderstorms do develop.
Official rainfall forecast graphic from the WPC. This could have adjustments (they have been adjusting it over the past few days).
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
