Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

6 PM

Tornado watch will cover much of the area tonight.  Monitor local media, the NWS, or my Beau Dodson Facebook page for the most up to date information.

I will be doing live threads on Facebook.  The best weather information you are going to find on-line in this region.

 

3 PM Update

Everything below seems to be on track.  The only question is the timing.  I updated the time map, but still a little uncertain on exact times.  This map is give or take 1-2 hours.

Thunderstorms will move in later this evening and cross much of the area by late tonight.

9 AM update

April 9, 2015: Good morning, everyone. We have one more stormy day ahead of us.

Highlights…

1. Severe weather event later today
2. Colder by Friday morning with temperatures into the 40’s

Some of you have not witnessed much in the way of severe weather this week. That is how severe events usually go. Some people get slammed and others don’t see much.

Yesterday there were powerful supercells that moved through parts of Missouri and Illinois. Grapefruit size hail fell in some locations of southeast Missouri. At least one possible tornado touched down in southeast Missouri, as well.

The main cold front arrives tonight. This will clean out the atmosphere and leave us in a cold air-mass on Friday morning (temps into the 40’s)

But, first…we have a severe weather event that will hit our area later today and tonight.

There are still some questions about how unstable the atmosphere will become today (or won’t).

If you have followed me for any time at all you will know that sunny sky conditions on a severe weather forecast day is always bad news. The more sun…the more energy for storms to work with.

Right now we have widespread clouds and precipitation in the area.

We have an MCV moving out of southwest Missouri towards us, as well. That is basically a dying complex of storms that has left an area of low pressure behind. As it moves east we will likely see additional thunderstorm development along its path. That means even more clouds.

The MCV, which can be viewed on the Springfield, MO radar, is moving northeast at 30-35 mph. It will enter our region by late morning and early afternoon.

The MCV will likely spark some thunderstorms. These storms could be severe.

Later tonight the cold front sweeps through the region. A squall line will develop along the cold front from Illinois back into Missouri and Arkansas. This line of storms will move east/southeast at speeds of 20-40 mph. Individual cells within the line will move northeast at 40 mph.

I suspect our region will be placed under a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch later today and for much of tonight. A couple of periods of storms will be possible.

The atmosphere will be capable of producing several reports of hail and damaging winds in our region. I can’t rule out tornado warnings, as well. Perhaps QLCS tornadoes? Maybe. These are brief tornadoes that are usually embedded in the leading edge of squall lines. Typically they can be found in bowing echoes from line segments within the squall line.

Again, there are questions about how unstable the atmosphere might become. If we remain socked in with clouds and on/off precipitation then the severe weather threat goes down a little bit (still will be some severe storms). If the sun does come out and we heat up…the severe weather event will be worse.

Today/tonight is a WEATHER AWARE day. That means to pay attention to frequent updated forecasts, watches, and warnings.

I will post a few now-cast threads. Now-cast threads are 3-5 threads with live information (and Q&A).

Timing of the event…

We could have thunderstorm development at any given time today.

The MCV will move through our area between 11 am and 2 or 3 pm. A band of storms could form over eastern Missouri from this and move through southern Illinois. Not sure how far south that band will extend.

These times are approximate. Keep in mind the line of storms has not even formed yet (the main line). These times may need to be adjusted as we move forward.

The main squall line, however, should reach the western parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois between the hours of 5:30 PM and 7 pm.

The line of storms will approach the rest of southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and the Missouri Bootheel/northwest Tennessee between 7 pm and 10 pm.

The line will reach my eastern forecast counties after that. Some questions on what time it reaches Daviess County, KY down towards Hopkinsville, KY. Sometimes these lines speed up a bit as they sweep eastward. Keep that in mind.

Again, I will post several threads today with updates. I will probably wait until late afternoon to post a now-cast thread. If severe weather develops sooner than expected then I will post a live thread.

I bring you the best coverage in the Tri-State Region when it comes to severe weather.  If you don’t have Facebook then consider signing up for an account.  I post live threads on Facebook and you can post questions to me.  I answer them all.

Here are some graphics for today…

Hazard Graphic For Today/Tonight

My timing estimates (give or take 1-2 hours)

3 PM Future-cast satellite. You can see the black area represents sun.  If the sun comes out then we heat up.  If we heat up then severe weather risk goes up.

Forecats CAPE values for this evening.  Remember, CAPE is energy for the thunderstorms.  These are high CAPE numbers and represent plenty of energy for severe thunderstorms.

 

Let’s look at some future-cast radar images from weatherbell.com

This is what radar might look like later today and tonight.

This is around 3 pm.  You can see some storms well ahead of the line.  We will have to monitor those storms, as well.

The image below is the future-cast radar for the 7-8 pm time frame.  This is what one model believes the radar will look like later this evening.

This is the 10 pm time frame (below)

This is the 12 am future-cast radar.  What radar might look like around 12 am tonight.  Line of storms moving through the area.

Then finally, this is the 3 am time frame.  Keep in mind that the storms could move faster than expected.

 

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.

Remember that weather evolves.  Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.

The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region.  These are averages.

Monitor updates.  A squall line will sweep through the area Thursday evening and night.  This line of storms could have sporadic large hail, damaging winds, and even isolated tornadoes. 

Thursday – A chance for a strong thunderstorm early in the day into early afternoon.  Then we will be watching a line of storms form during the late afternoon and evening hours.  High temperatures in the 70’s.  Southerly winds at 10-25 mph.   My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.

Morning School Bus Stop Weather – A chance for a storm.  Mild.  Temperatures in the 60’s.  Gusty winds.
—————————————————————————————-
Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – A chance for a storm.  Mild.  Temperatures in the 70’s.  Gusty winds.

Thursday night – Cloudy.  A squall line will sweep through the area.  Severe thunderstorms possible.  Lows will be in the 40’s by Friday morning.  Winds southerly at 10-25 mph turning northwesterly late. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B

Friday – Some sun!  Cooler.  Highs only in the 60’s.  Northerly winds at 10-15 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but a jacket might be in order.

Friday night – Mostly clear and cool.  Lows in the 40’s (upper 30’s possible far northern and northeastern counties).  Light winds.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

Saturday – Partly sunny with highs in the 60’s.  East winds at 10 mph.  My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No

The School Bus Stop Forecast is brought to your by Shawnee Professional Services.  For more information click here

Current Temperatures Around The Local Area

Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more!  Click here

 

An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…

Highlights

1. Big story today will be thunderstorms.  A squall line tonight will push through the region.  Heavy rain, wind, hail and even isolated tornadoes will be possible with the line of storms.
2.  Colder by Friday morning with temperatures in the 40’s!
3.  Dry most of Saturday and part of Sunday
4.  Another round of storms possible Sunday through much of next week.  Multiple rounds of precipitation.  I am concerned about heavy rainfall.

Well, our cold front is finally going to sweep through the area.  After days of showers and thunderstorms for the area.  The front will bring an end to the severe weather concerns.

But, first…

We will have a couple of storms this evening (Wednesday).  Isolated storms could produce hail and strong winds.  Mostly over SE MO and southern IL.

On Thursday we should see  a lull in the precipitation on Thursday late morning and/or afternoon.  The atmosphere will recharge some.  A few scattered storms will be possible.

By Thursday afternoon (late) a line of storms will start to take shape over Illinois and Missouri.  This line will move eastward during the evening and overnight hours.  It should clear most of our area around midnight Friday morning.  Perhaps lingering over our far southeast counties.

Exact time-line is tough to say.  I am thinking far southern IL (Marion, IL south to Paducah, KY to Mayfield, KY) and west Kentucky will experience the squall line between 5 pm and 11 pm.

Individual cells could occur way before that.  If supercells form ahead of the squall line then it could be earlier.  Everyone should monitor weather conditions from the afternoon hours right on into the overnight hours.

The line of storms will move into an unstable atmosphere with strong wind fields.  The best dynamics will be to our north, but enough instability will cover our region to support hail, damaging wind gusts, and even a tornado or two.  Tornadoes would most likely be embedded within bowing line segments of the squall line.

A tornado or severe thunderstorm watch may have to be issued for the region on Thursday evening and night.  Warnings are likely, as well.  Monitor the latest weather information from your trusted weather sources.

Friday will bring dry conditions and cooler.  Morning temperatures will dip into the 40’s!

Saturday will be dry and mild.  Temperatures by Saturday afternoon will rise well into the 60’s.

Sunday morning will be dry.

Another large storm system approaches our region on Sunday afternoon and night.  This system will be slow to move out.  We may have rain and storm chances for much of next week.  See the extended discussion below.

Today’s Severe Weather Hazard Graphic (this graphic is for the afternoon and overnight storms on Thursday)

Some maps for today – as we analyze the severe weather potential.

Let’s look at some weatherbell.com maps

First – the future-cast radar from 4 pm this afternoon through the overnight hours.  You can see the line of storms forming in Illinois and Missouri

There are some isolated storms forming over southern Missouri, as well.  We will need to watch these single cells ahead of the line.  Sometimes they can produce a bit more severe weather.

Then around 7 pm in the evening.  A line of storms from Illinois back into Arkansas.  Some cells ahead of the line, as well.  Again, we will need to monitor all of the storms for severe weather concerns.

 

Then around 10 pm.  The line is moving off to the east.

Let’s look at the storm motion charts.  What direction will the storms move and how fast.

These are from Hazwx.com

Early in the evening the storms should move east/northeast at 10-25 mph.  The storms will start to move more east/southeast the later into the night we move.

This map below is for around 1 am.  You can see the barbed lines…those represent the direction storms are moving and the speed.  Each line is 10 knots.  If the line is pointing from the west to the east then the storm is moving east.  3 lines on the end of the stick means 30  knots.  According to this chart, the storms will be moving east/southeast at 30 knots late Thursday night.

Let’s look at PWAT values.  They are very high ahead of the cold front.  What are PWAT values?  Glad you asked!

What are PWAT values?  Great question!  I found this blog post that explains it quite well.  Click here for more information on PWAT values.

It is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere.  The numbers on these charts are very high.  That means that any storms that form will drop torrential downpours.

You can track the cold front via these maps.  Just watch the higher numbers sweep eastward

This map is for 3 PM.  You can see abundant moisture ahead of the cold front.  The cold front is back in Missouri.   Notice the lower numbers over the northwest half of Missouri.  That is behind the front.

Then by 4 pm.  Front continues to sweep eastward.  High PWAT numbers over our area.  If a storm forms then it will produce heavy rain.

Then by 7 pm.  The front is upon many of us.  It is moving east.

Then you can see we are behind the front later on Thursday night.  PWAT values crash.  The drier air moves into the region.

CAPE values will also be quite high ahead of this system.  There is some question about how much cloud cover and morning convection will occur in the region.  But, I believe this will move on out to the east during the day.  That should allow some sunshine.  If the sun comes out then we become more unstable.  Warming produces higher CAPE values.

What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather?  I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it.  For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here

Here are the CAPE maps from weatherbell.com

You can see high numbers by the middle of the afternoon.  This map is for around 3 pm.

This map is for around 7 pm in the evening.  You can see some very high CAPE numbers in eastern Arkansas.  High numbers into our region.  Plenty of unstable air for thunderstorms to feed on.

Then the numbers diminish the later into the night we ride.  Typically we cool off in the evening and overnight hours.  That is one reason CAPE numbers decrease.

The Hazwx.com supercell composite numbers for our region on Thursday afternoon and evening.  A spike in those numbers.  Some supercells are possible ahead of an perhaps embedded in the line of thunderstorms.

Supercell thunderstorms typically produce the higher end severe weather.  Large hail, high winds, and even isolated tornadoes.

Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page

 

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A squall line will move through the area Thursday evening and night.  A few reports of damaging wind, hail, and an isolated tornado will be possible with the line of thunderstorms.  This will bring an end to our severe weather concerns…for a few days.

I am watching Sunday night into next week for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  Heavy rain is a concern.  Some severe storms can’t be ruled out.  Monitor updates as we move forward.

 

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Visit their web-site here.  Or click the ad below!  Facebook page.

 

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Visit their web-site here.  Or, you can also visit their Facebook page.

 

 

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The School Bus Stop Forecast is brought to your by Shawnee Professional Services.  For more information click here

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Here are the current river stage forecasts.   You can click your state and then the dot for your location.  It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.

Rivers are going to be on the rise.  This may go on for awhile with additional heavy rain over the next 7-8 days.

Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…

Here are some current forecast hydrographs.  These will be updated each day with new information.

 

Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours?  Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.

Thunderstorm threat level is  THREE/FOUR
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook –  Severe storms likely
Friday Severe Weather Outlook –  No severe weather
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook –  Monitor updates
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates

 

 

 

How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?

Heavy downpours will cause a wide variety of rainfall totals across the area today into tonight.  Rainfall totals of 0.50″ to 2″ will be possible.  Where storms train you can pick up even more.  Same as the last few days…some locations will pick up a lot of rain in a short amount of time.

 

 

This section of the blog is speculative forecast information.  Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation.  Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.

The focus continues to be on a large storm system taking shape for Sunday night into most of next week.  It will sit out in the Central United States.  We will see multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms with this system.  There may end up being several areas of low pressure move to our west and northwest.

We will be on the warm side of this system.  Heavy thunderstorms are possible and I can’t rule out additional severe weather.

Monitor updates.

I will try to focus a bit more on the event next week in the next few updates.  Focus today is on the current severe weather concerns.

 

We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.

If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com

WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —

We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.

Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here

NOTE:  Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes).  Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.

Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan:  Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here

 

For the most up to date maps – click here

 

 

 

Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky.  They have a lot of maps and information on their site.  Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.

 

Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).

The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).

The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook.  Note the dates are at the top of the image.  These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be.  They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.

 

Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?

I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s.  I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns.  My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS).  I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.  Just need to finish two Spanish classes!

I am a member of the American Meteorological Society.  I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.  And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.

I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.

There is a lot of noise on the internet.  A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation.  Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.

My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.

• Communicate in simple terms
• To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
• Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
• Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
• Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events

I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.  In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.  I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.

If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.

I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.

Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more

This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog

 

Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.

 

WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions

 

WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras

 

Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view

 

 

You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.