Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. 

SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.

48-hour forecast

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April 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday Forecast:  Intervals of clouds.  Windy.  Cool.   Scattered showers.  Rain may be mixed with graupel or snow.  No accumulation, of course.  A rumble of thunder possible.  Small hail possible in thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered.  Coverage will be higher east of the MS River vs west of the MS River.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52°  /  SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° /  South IL 45° to 50°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48°  /  West KY 45° to 50° /  NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 15 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 30° to 40°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Isolated lightning.  Small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset:  7:24 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  An evening shower.  Clearing.  Colder.  A freeze will be possible.  Frost possible if the wind subsides.  Either way, it is going to be chilly.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 10% /  the rest of South IL ~ 10%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered early.
Timing of the rain: Before 9 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 33° to 36° /  SE MO 30° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 32° /  South IL 32° to 34° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° /  West KY 33° to 36° /  NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: West northwest 10 to 20 mph early.  Becoming west 6 to 12 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways early.  Frost/freeze.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  First Quarter

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April 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Partly to mostly sunny.  Chilly with windy conditions.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56°  /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 50° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 55°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54°  /  West KY 52° to 55° /  NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset:  7:25 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly clear. Patchy frost.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° /  SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 30° to 34° /  South IL 32° to 34° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° /  West KY 34° to 36° /  NW TN 34° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Light wind
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 28° to 34°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Frost.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:08 PM
Moonset: 2:42 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 10, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday Forecast:  Mostly sunny during the morning.  Some afternoon clouds.  Warmer.  Breezy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 68° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 72°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 72°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset:  7:26 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.  A chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 30% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 6 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° /  SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° /  South IL 52° to 54° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° /  West KY 53° to 56° /  NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:07 PM
Moonset: 3:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 11, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Monday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 72° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 70° to 72° /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74°  /  West KY 70° to 74° /  NW TN 72° to 74°
Winds will be from the: South southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset:  7:27 PM
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Monday  night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 56° to 60° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 55° to 60° /  South IL 55° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 56° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 2:09 PM
Moonset: 4:01 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 12, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Tuesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /  the rest of South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76°  /  SE MO 72° to 74° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 74° /  South IL 72° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 75° /  NW TN 74° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:25 AM
Sunset:  7:28 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Mostly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 60%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /  the rest of South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° /  SE MO 60° to 62° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 58° to 62° /  South IL 58° to 62° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° /  West KY 60° to 62° /  NW TN 60° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 3:13 PM
Moonset: 4:34 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 13, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast:  Partly sunny.  A chance of thunderstorms. Windy. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 70%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 72° to 75° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 72° to 75° /  South IL 73° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74°  /  West KY 73° to 76° /  NW TN 73° to 76°
Winds will be from the: Southerly winds at 15 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  Some storms could be intense.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:24 AM
Sunset:  7:29 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 70%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% /  the rest of South IL ~ 60%  /  West KY ~ 60%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60%  /  NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° /  SE MO 45° to 50° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 45° to 50° /  South IL 45° to 50° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 50° /  West KY 46° to 50° /  NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: Southwest becoming west 15 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
Moonrise: 4:18 PM
Moonset: 5:02 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 14, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast:  Decreasing morning clouds.   Becoming sunny.  Cooler.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° /  South IL 63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7.  High.
Sunrise: 6:22 AM
Sunset:  7:29 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 40° to 44° /  NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the:
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 5:23 PM
Moonset: 5:29 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 15, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Friday Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° /  South IL 63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:21 AM
Sunset:  7:30 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 40° to 44° /  NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the:  West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:31 PM
Moonset: 5:56 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waxing Gibbous

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April 16, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify?  Low confidence
Saturday Forecast:  Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 68°  /  SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° /  South IL 63° to 66°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64°  /  West KY 63° to 66° /  NW TN 63° to 66°
Winds will be from the: West southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:19 AM
Sunset:  7:31 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% /  the rest of SE MO ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /  the rest of South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 45° /  SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° /  South IL 40° to 44° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° /  West KY 40° to 44° /  NW TN 42° to 45°
Winds will be from the:  West northwest 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:40 PM
Moonset: 6:24 AM
The phase of the moon:  Full

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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down.  Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook.  You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

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Today through April 15th:  I am closely monitoring next Tuesday and Wednesday.  Warmer air will push into the region.  Dew points will also be on the rise.  Some of the thunderstorms could be strong.   Monitor updates over the coming days.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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Forecast Discussion

An unsettled seven days of weather ahead of us.  Let’s break it down.

We are waking up to chilly temperatures.  Most of the region has temperatures in the 30s.

Light rain and rain/snow showers are showing up on radar.

Here was the 7 am radar.  Double click on the images to enlarge them.

All of this precipitation is pivoting around a large upper level low.  We have been talking about this for several days.

You can see it on these satellite images.

I drew some arrows to show you the wind flow.  Thankfully, this system is moving along and is not cut-off.  Sometimes, these upper level lows become cut-off and can stall over a region.

Another view.  Water-vapor imagery.

Our weather today will be dominated by cold temperatures (well below average), gusty winds, clouds, scattered rain and snow showers, and even a rumble of thunder.

If a thunderstorm forms then it could produce snow pellets and small hail.

Rain totals today, for the most part, will be below 0.20″.  Light precipitation.

Winds will gust above 20 mph.

Check out today’s temperature departures.  How many degrees below average will today be?

Over 20 degrees below seasonal norms.  Chilly!

Check out this afternoon’s wind-chill temperatures.  Spring?  Is that you?

Brrr.  Not the best weather day for outdoor activities.

All of this mess with push off to the east tonight.

I do expect some clearing sky conditions overnight.   How fast the clouds clear will influence how cold it will be late tonight/early tomorrow morning.

I am forecasting widespread lower to middle 30s.  A light freeze will be possible in some locations.  I can’t rule out frost, but winds will need to subside in order for frost to form.  Either way, a chilly night ahead of us.

As of 7 AM, the NWS has issued freeze warnings for the dark purple zone.  This may need to be expanded.

Another frost or freeze advisory is possible Saturday night.  Keep that in mind.  Widespread frost is likely Sunday morning.

Saturday will deliver mostly sunny sky conditions.  Some fair-weather clouds possible, but I do expect a lot of sunshine.

It will be chilly with below average temperatures.  Dry.  Gusty winds.

Here is the cloud forecast.  Blue represents clouds.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

Saturday night into Sunday morning will be cold with a chance of frost.  Winds will subside.

Finally, we warm up Sunday!  Sunshine and warm temperatures will make Sunday the pick day of the weekend.  Same as last week.

Sunday night through Thursday:

Unsettled weather.

Confidence in the Sunday night through Thursday time frame is high when it comes to temperatures and wind.  Confidence in the exact timing of shower and thunderstorm chances is low to medium.

A change in the weather pattern will mean southerly winds developing next week.  That equals warmer temperatures.  It also means an increase in moisture at all levels of the atmosphere.

Dew points will be on the rise.  Remember, dew point is a better measure of moisture in the atmosphere vs relative humidity.

We use dew points when forecasting severe weather.

A multi-day severe weather event is going to happen next week across the central United States.

The big question is what days will severe weather potentially impact our region.

All the ingredients for severe weather will be there next week.

At this time, it appears the chances of highest Wednesday/Wednesday night.  I will keep an eye on Tuesday.

We will have at least scattered shower and thunderstorm chances Sunday night, Monday, Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night, Wednesday, and Wednesday night.

It certainly won’t rain all of the time.  Scattered activity.

That activity will increase and become widespread right ahead of the cold front.  Again, that is likely to not push across the region until Wednesday/Wednesday night.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the central United States for severe thunderstorms Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

Monday’s severe weather outlook.

Tuesday’s severe weather outlook.

Wednesday’s severe weather outlook.

Here are their comments.  They are favoring the EC model guidance.  It is slower than the GFS model guidance.

The EC model brings the cold front through the region late Wednesday night.  A blizzard for the Northern Plains.

You can see showers and thunderstorms pushing across our region on the EC model.  This is 1 AM Thursday.

On the other hand, the GFS is much faster with this system.  It brings the front through our region Wednesday morning and afternoon.

It looks like this at 1 AM Thursday.  Notice the front is already well to our east.

There are differences in the model packages when it comes to timing.

Both models show dew points surging northward next week.

Notice this weekend’s dew points are low.

And then notice what dew points look like by Wednesday.  Much higher dews.  That is a lot of fuel for thunderstorms to tap into.

Locally heavy rain will be possible.  We will need to monitor the severe weather risk.

National view of dew points (Wednesday night).

PWAT values will be high next week, as well.  Especially ahead of the cold front.  PWAT is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.  We use it to monitor the risk of heavy rain.  You can see it surging northward ahead of the cold front.

Wind fields will increase as this system pulls into the region, as well.

850 mb winds.  5000′ feet aloft.  I always monitor 850 mb wind fields when forecasting severe weather.  You can see the yellow over our region Wednesday night.  Increasing wind fields.  That is an ingredient for severe weather, as well.

Monitor updates as we move into next week.  I can’t rule out some severe weather risks.

Rain totals through next week.  This may need adjusting.  First forecast thoughts.

As always, thunderstorms can produce locally higher totals.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time.  12z=7 AM.  18z=1 PM.  00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.

These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 8th through April 13th

Click on the image to expand it.

These are usually updated between 9:30 and 10:30 AM

 

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 67 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 14th through April 20th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around  72 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″

This outlook covers April 22nd through May 5th

Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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