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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Thursday night – Not concerned about frost.
Friday night – Freeze warning covers most of the region. A freeze is possible.
Saturday night – Monitor updates. Freeze conditions are again possible.
Sunday night – No concerns for frost
Monday night -No concerns for frost
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday night – Monitor updates
Thursday night – Monitor updates
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Evening showers. Showers could produce strong and gusty winds and small hail. A few lightning strikes possible. Then, precipitation ending late. A 20% chance for light showers after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts to 25 mph in the evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% light precipitation
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday – Partly cloudy. Cool. A small chance for a shower. Mainly over southern Illinois and western Kentucyk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 54-58 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts above 20 mph at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday Night – Freeze warning (see graphic below) Partly cloudy. Small chance for a shower/snow shower over our eastern counties. Frost or freeze possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: Winds becoming variable at 3-6 mph. Winds are important for Saturday night. If the winds stay up then frost chances decrease.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze possible.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cool start to the day. Perhaps partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze early in the morning will be possible.
Saturday Night – Some clouds towards morning. Chilly. Frost or freeze again possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the 34-38 degree range. Monitor updates on Saturday night lows. It might be colder for some of our local counties.
Winds: Winds becoming south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost.
Sunday – Some clouds. Warmer. I am monitoring an incoming system for Monday and Tuesday. There could be some warm air advection showers on Sunday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 20-25 mph in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20% in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Wet roadways if showers end up developing.
Sunday Night – Mostly cloudy. An increasing chance for some showers after midnight. Perhaps a thunderstorm towards morning. More likely through the day on Monday.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Monday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds at times ahead of our next system.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We may have to deal with some rain
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Uncertainty on whether severe weather is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Monitor updates on thunderstorm chances.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10 mph. Winds becoming west late at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers and storms are possible Monday and Monday night. Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Uncertainty on whether severe weather is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Mainly early in the day. Most of the rain should be over by Tuesday.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Winds: West winds at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- The main weather story will be the freeze potential for Friday and perhaps Saturday night
- Another system approaches our region on Sunday night and Monday.
- Good chance for rain and some storms on Monday and Monday evening.
- More cold air next week?
First I want to let everyone know the following:
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
The main weather story for the coming days will be another shot of cold air. Seems par for the course this spring. Just how many cold snaps have we had over the last few weeks? Several. And, they just keep on coming. And, there are more down the pike.
SPRING
Freeze watch Friday night:
Friday night temperatures will likely dip into the upper 20s to middle 30s over the region. Data is mixed on wind speeds. If the wind can stay up then frost chances go down. And, the air will be quite dry on Friday night and Saturday morning. This could also mitigate the frost potential. Thus, a freeze could be the most probable outcome.
A freeze watch has been issued for most of the region. See the graphic above. A freeze watch means that temperatures will dip below freezing for several hours. And, this could hurt sensitive vegetation.
Saturday will deliver another cool day. Saturday night we might have to deal with frost or freeze conditions again. Perhaps centered over our eastern counties. That means southeast Illinois into the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky. I believe southeast Missouri may stay above freeze. Monitor updates in case additional freeze watches/warnings have to be issued. Confidence on Saturday night temperatures is lower than the confidence in Friday nights forecast. Friday night I do believe many of us dip down to the freezing mark (or below).
Another shot of cold air is possible next Tuesday night through Thursday night. Still a bit early to know if we will dip below freezing. GFS would suggest we go below freezing on Wednesday morning.
A storm system will approach our region on Sunday night and Monday. Winds will turn southerly on Sunday. And, a few warm air advection showers will also be possible. Light, if they develop at all. That would mostly be on Sunday afternoon. Perhaps a 20% chance.
Rain and thunderstorm chances increase considerably by Monday. A widespread precipitation event is likely to occur. Rainfall totals of 0.30″-0.60″ will be possible. And, heavier totals are possible if thunderstorms develop. The severe weather risk on Monday appears low. Monitor update, as always. The GFS is showing a band of 1-2″ of rain over our region Sunday night into Tuesday.
Showers and storms should end late Monday night. Tuesday will deliver a few clouds and perhaps a remaining shower. Cooler by Tuesday.
I suppose one good point of all the cold weather has been the lack of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes. I know the cold can be damaging and costly, as well. I suppose this is a trade-off.
Let me show you the GFS guidance when it comes to temperatures for the coming days. Keep in mind that this is just one models opinion on lows and highs. They could vary a bit.
Saturday morning lows (these temps may vary by several degrees). Just because you may see temperatures above freezing at your location does not mean that will be the case. Prepare for a possible freeze.
Sunday afternoon. A bit warmer 🙂
Monday. Can you find the cold front pushing in from the north? Probably so!
Cooler on Tuesday.
We do it all over again next Wednesday morning.
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Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Friday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Saturday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Sunday – A few storms possible late Sunday night (more likely on Monday)
Monday – Monitor updates. A few storms are possible. Likely not severe.
Tuesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday – Severe weather is not anticipated.
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Updated winds and temperatures. Added the freeze watch graphic.
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Frost update for the orchards/others.
Friday night – Freeze likely on Friday night.
Saturday night – Monitor updates.
Sunday night – No concerns
Monday night -No concerns
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday night into Monday night. Centered on Monday. Right now the severe weather risk appears small. As always, monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Small chance for a light shower on Friday and Friday evening. Precipitation totals would be less than 0.05″.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday night into Monday night. A few light showers possible on Sunday afternoon. But, the main activity will be centered on Monday.
Rainfall totals of 0.30″-0.60″ appear likely from the Monday event. And, locally higher totals are possible if thunderstorms do develop.
Official rainfall forecast graphic from the WPC. This could have adjustments (they have been adjusting it over the past few days).
Here is what the GFS is showing for rainfall. It is the heaviest of the models.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
