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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Not concerned about frost.
Friday night – Decent shot at freezing temperatures in the region. Monitor updates.
Saturday night – Monitor updates.
Sunday night – No concerns for frost
Monday night -No concerns for frost
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms early in the night. Then a slight chance for a shower after midnight. Becoming partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph. Gusts over 30 mph early in the evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early. 20% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible early
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range. Warmer west vs east in the region. Southeast Missouri should be the warmest.
Winds: West winds becoming northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No, but small hail is possible.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if anything at all. Small hail.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Maybe mixed with snow. Chilly temperatures.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% light precipitation
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Nothing significant
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday – Partly cloudy. Cool. A shower possible early in the day. Especially over Illinois and Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-58 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Small chance for a shower/snow shower. Frost or freeze possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: Winds becoming variable at 3-6 mph. Winds are important for Saturday night. If the winds stay up then frost chances decrease.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium to High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze possible.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cool start to the day. Perhaps partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze early in the morning will be possible.
Saturday Night – Some clouds towards morning. Chilly. Frost or freeze again possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s. Monitor updates on Saturday night lows.
Winds: Winds becoming south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost.
Sunday – Some clouds. Warmer. I am monitoring an incoming system for Monday and Tuesday. There could be some warm air advection showers on Sunday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Wet roadways if showers end up developing.
Sunday Night – Mostly cloudy. An increasing chance for some showers after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Monday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds at times ahead of our next system.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We may have to deal with some rain
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Uncertainty on whether severe weather is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Monitor updates on thunderstorm chances.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10 mph. Winds becoming west late at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers and storms are possible Monday and Monday night. Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Uncertainty on whether severe weather is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Winds: West winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
Another chance for rain and storms next Thursday/Friday. Low confidence.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- The main concern in this forecast package will be frost and freeze conditions on Friday and Saturday night
- Another storm system will push into the region Sunday night into Monday
- Another cold snap possible the middle of next week. Go figure.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Showers and thunderstorms will come to an end on Wednesday evening.
Another chance for showers and thunderstorms will occur on Thursday afternoon. Some could produce small hail. Scattered.
The next forecast concern will be cold temperatures. Another blast of cold air will take aim at our region on Friday night and will last into Saturday night. Frost or freeze conditions will again be possible during this time frame.
A frost advisory or freeze warning may have to be issued for portions of the region on both Friday and Saturday night. The coldest air will likely be centered over southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky. But, much of the region may have to deal with at or below freezing temperatures. This is a concern for strawberry farmers and orchards. Monitor updates if you have concerns.
Let me show you the GFS numbers. These are the low temperatures for Saturday and Sunday morning. The EC guidance is about 2-4 degrees warmer than the GFS numbers. Images are from weatherbell.com
Saturday morning lows
Sunday morning lows. Check out the temperatures in Ohio and Pennsylvania. That is just crazy.
There will be some light showers in the forecast Thursday and Friday. Rainfall totals, if any, would be very light.
A larger storm system will impact the region on Sunday night into Monday night. Centered on Monday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Monday. A few strong storms are possible. Still a bit early to know if severe weather is a concern.
Another cold snap next Wednesday. Subject to adjustments since it is still days away. GFS shows more 30s for the region.
The year is starting off fairly slow on the severe weather front. We had a few tornadoes in February and March. But, widespread severe weather has been absent. Let’s hope that continues. Our main severe weather time period is from March into the middle of June. Then again in late October and November. With each passing week we push a little bit closer to summer. But, we first need spring to arrive! The number of cold shots has been quite amazing.
Let’s look at the soil moisture content. Right now we are averaging above normal. Plenty of rain.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
A few thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday evening.
Thursday – Showers are possible. A rumble of thunder and small hail not out of the question
Friday – No storms forecast
Saturday – No storms forecast
Sunday – Severe weather is not anticipated. A few storms possible Sunday night.
Monday – Monitor updates
Tuesday – No storms forecast
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No major changes in this forecast update.
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Frost update for the orchards/others.
Thursday night – Not concerned about frost.
Friday night – Decent shot at freezing temperatures in the region. Monitor updates.
Saturday night – Monitor updates.
Sunday night – No concerns
Monday night -No concerns
Tuesday night – Monitor updates
Another round of thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday night into Monday night. Centered on Monday. We will be monitoring for strong storms. Still a bit early to make a call on that subject. Monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Showers will come to an end on Wednesday evening. A few light showers are possible on/off Thursday into Friday evening. Any showers would be light and rainfall totals would be less than 0.10″.
A larger rain event is possible Sunday night into Monday night. Rainfall totals greater than 0.50″ will be possible. Especially true if thunderstorms develop.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
