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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
FROST FORECAST:
Frost update for the orchards/others.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Small chance for frost.
Friday night – Decent shot at freezing temperatures in the region. Monitor updates.
Saturday night – Monitor updates.
Tuesday Night – Increasing clouds. Perhaps a shower or thunderstorm after midnight. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle to upper 40s.
Winds: East and southeast winds at 5-10 mph. Becoming south/southeast. Gusts to 16 mph after midnight.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated. If the front advances quicker than anticipated then I will have to increase the rain chances a bit.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways if showers do develop.
Wednesday – Mostly cloudy. Breezy. A chance for showers and some thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusts to 35-40 mph. Winds may turn more westerly late in the afternoon.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps widespread at times.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some rain likely
Is severe weather expected? Severe weather risk is small.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Wet roadways. Gusty winds near the heavier thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms early in the night. Then a slight chance for a shower after midnight. Becoming partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 40s.
Winds: Winds west and northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% early. 20% after midnight.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers possible early
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Thursday – Mix of sun and clouds. A slight chance for a shower during the late afternoon hours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 56-64 degree range. Warmer west vs east in the region. Southeast Missouri should be the warmest.
Winds: West winds becoming northwest at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15-20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%-20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways if anything at all.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. A shower possible. Maybe mixed with snow. Chilly temperatures.
Temperatures: Lows in the 36 to 42 degree range
Winds: Winds northwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40% light precipitation
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? Nothing significant
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Friday – Partly cloudy. Cool. A shower possible early in the day. Especially over Illinois and Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the 52-58 degree range
Winds: West/northwest winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty at times.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways.
Friday Night – Partly cloudy. Small chance for a shower/snow shower. Frost or freeze possible. Monitor updates.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 20s to middle 30s
Winds: Winds becoming variable at 3-6 mph. Winds are important for Saturday night. If the winds stay up then frost chances decrease.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium to High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze possible.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Cool start to the day. Perhaps partly cloudy in the afternoon.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: North/northeast winds at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Frost or freeze early in the morning will be possible.
Saturday Night – Some clouds towards morning. Chilly. Frost or freeze again possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 30s. Monitor updates on Saturday night lows.
Winds: Winds becoming south at 4-8 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Monitoring for frost.
Sunday – Some clouds. Warmer. I am monitoring an incoming system for Monday and Tuesday. There could be some warm air advection showers on Sunday afternoon or evening.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Wet roadways if showers end up developing.
Sunday Night – Mostly cloudy. An increasing chance for some showers after midnight.
Temperatures: Lows in the 50s
Winds: Winds south at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
Monday – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 60s
Winds: Southerly winds at 8-16 mph. Gusty winds at times ahead of our next system.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Widespread
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We may have to deal with some rain
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Uncertainty on whether severe weather is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible. Monitor updates on thunderstorm chances.
Monday Night – Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 10 mph. Winds becoming west late at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Some showers and storms are possible Monday and Monday night. Have a back up plan.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Uncertainty on whether severe weather is a concern.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning possible.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A shower possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s.
Winds: West winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways.
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The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- High pressure moving away. Warmer Tuesday night
- Cold front approaches on Wednesday with showers/storms
- Colder Thursday into the weekend
- Frost on Friday night? Or freeze?
- More rain/storm chances Sunday-Monday night. Centered on Monday/Monday afternoon/evening.
The cold high pressure center that delivered a frost/freeze to portions of the region on Monday morning is moving off to the east. Since the high is shifting eastward our temperatures will be on the rise. High pressure rotates clockwise. Thus, when a high moves off to our east, our winds turn southerly. That also means moisture will be on the increase.
A cold front will push into the area on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front.
Shower chances increase late tonight over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. But, the bulk of the rain arrives on Wednesday. A few storms could be strong over Kentucky and Tennessee. The risk for severe weather is small, but not zero.
Rainfall totals of 0.05″-0.40″ appear likely with this event. Some areas will not pick up much rainfall. The least amount of rain is forecast for northwest Tennessee.
Keep in mind, thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rainfall. Thus, totals over 0.40″ can occur in storms.
The atmosphere will be a little unstable on Wednesday over the area. Nothing dramatic. But, just enough for thunderstorms. The heavier storms could produce pea to dime size hail and 40-50 mph wind gusts. Lightning, of course. Again, the threat for actual severe weather is small. Severe weather is defined as winds of 58 mph or greater, one inch or larger hail, and/or tornadoes.
The front pushes off to our east on Wednesday night. Colder/cooler air will filter into the region for the rest of the week.
I am concerned about overnight lows on Friday night and Saturday morning. Guidance is showing 20s and 30s. This time the colder air could spill further south and west. Recent cold events have been centered over southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky. This cold snap will encompass a larger portion of the area. If you have sensitive vegetation concerns then monitor updates.
There remains some questions as to wind speed on Friday night and Saturday morning. Wind stays up then frost chances go down. Monitor updates.
Saturday night could also be chilly. Not confident on numbers, just yet. Our eastern counties would most likely be colder than our western counties. The high will be pushing eastward. Colder air associated with the area of high pressure.
Another storm system will approach our region on Sunday – Tuesday. This system could spark widespread showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps centered on Monday. Still too early to know if severe weather is a concern. Monitor updates as we move forward.
Also, a few showers will be possible as early as Sunday afternoon and night.
Let’s look at some maps
These are high resolution WRF model maps from weatherbell.com
What might radar look like on Wednesday? Let’s break it down. Colors represent precipitation. Yellow and red colors are heavier than green colors.
Here is the 7 am map. Most of the precipitation is still to our west. Maybe a couple of showers over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Bulk of the rain arrives later in the day.
This next image is for 1 pm on Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms marching eastward through the region.
Remember, this is a models interpretation of what radar might look like. It is never exact. Just take a general idea from it.
This next image is for Wednesday afternoon around 2-3 pm. Quite a bit of activity over the region.
This next image is for 3-4 pm
This next image is for 4-5 pm. You can see the precipitation ending from west to east. A few showers left behind the main band.
This next image is for 6 to 7 pm
This last image is for 7 pm on Wednesday evening. Most of the rain has ended. A few showers possible Wednesday evening.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Tuesday Night – Small chance for thunderstorms after midnight. Mainly over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Level ONE/TWO threat for storms on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Lightning would be the main concern. Storms will push eastward early Wednesday night.
Thursday – No storms forecast
Friday – No storms forecast
Saturday – No storms forecast
Sunday – Monitor updates
Monday/Tuesday – Monitor updates
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Updated temperatures and rain probabilities. Otherwise, no major changes.
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Frost update for the orchards/others.
Tuesday night – Frost is not anticipated
Wednesday night – Not concerned about frost.
Thursday night – Frost is possible.
Friday night – Frost and/or freeze will be possible.
Saturday night – Monitor updates
Sunday night – Frost is not anticipated
Some thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Locally strong storms can’t be ruled out. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday. Rainfall totals will be on the light side. I am expecting mostly 0.05″-0.40″ amounts. Thunderstorms can always produce locally heavy rain totals.
Here are the official rainfall forecast totals through Wednesday night.
Another rain system is likely to push into the region on Sunday – Tuesday. Perhaps centered on Monday. Monitor updates. Heavier rain will be possible with that event.
Here are the rainfall totals through next Tuesday. These numbers are COMBINED with the above. So, these would be the totals including the Wednesday event.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
