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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning will be possible Tuesday night into Thursday night. Peak chances appear to be late Wednesday into Thursday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Low risk. Monitor. I am monitoring Wednesday.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time. Just the ongoing river flooding.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
5: Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 78° SE MO 74° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 78° NW TN 76° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. High.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 53° to 56° NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:22 AM
Moonset: 1:05 PM
The phase of the moon:
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April 6, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% MO Bootheel ~ 0% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% South IL ~ 0% West KY ~ 0% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain: N/A
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 78° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 9. High.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 10% West KY ~ 10% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none. Isolated, at best.
Timing of the rain: After midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : AM
Moonset: : PM
The phase of the moon:
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April 7, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming cloudy. A few AM showers. Showers and thunderstorms likely during the afternoon.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 70% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% South IL ~ 70% West KY ~ 70% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous.
Timing of the rain: Scattered morning. Becoming more widespread during the afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 74° to 76° South IL 74° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce gusty wind and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% MO Bootheel ~ 70% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% South IL ~ 70% West KY ~ 70% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% NW TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the rain: Any given time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 52° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° West KY 52° to 55° NW TN 53° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce gusty wind and small hail.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Check radars.
Moonrise: 4:43 AM
Moonset: 3:13 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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April 8, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% MO Bootheel ~ 30% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% South IL ~ 40% West KY ~ 30% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: At any given point in the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 10 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming west at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 5:14 AM
Moonset: 4:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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April 9, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 10% MO Bootheel ~ 10% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: At any given point in the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 72° to 75° South IL 72° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 75° West KY 73° to 76° NW TN 74° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: West 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:30 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° SE MO 48° to 52° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest becoming west at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 5:14 AM
Moonset: 4:15 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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April 10, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: At any given point in the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° SE MO 68° to 72° South IL 68° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 6 to 12 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:28 AM
Sunset: 7:26 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 45° to 50° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° West KY 46° to 48° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest 6 to 12 mph. Higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:08 AM
Moonset: 6:14 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
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April 11, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Sunday Forecast: Partly sunny. A slight chance of showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: At any given point in the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 75° SE MO 70° to 72° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70° to 74° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:26 AM
Sunset: 7:27 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A slight chance of light showers.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% MO Bootheel ~ 20% I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% South IL ~ 20% West KY ~ 20% NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Any given time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 55° SE MO 50° to 54° South IL 50° to 54° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 54° NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
Moonrise: 6:32 AM
Moonset: 7:11 PM
The phase of the moon: New
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These graphics are changed out between 9:45 AM and 10:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 10th. A small risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night. Gusty wind and hail would be the primary concern. Monitor updates.
The risk is higher as you travel further south and southwest.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Monitor thunderstorm chances Wednesday. I can’t rule out strong thunderstorms, but confidence in that is currently low.
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Weather Discussion
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- Warmer today into Wednesday.
- Mid-week cold front with showers and thunderstorms.
- Cooler behind the cold front with some scattered showers. Lower confidence on the Thursday into Saturday forecast.
I hope everyone had a nice Easter. I did.
We have a warmer day today and tomorrow. Widespread middle to upper 70s. It will feel great after our recent cold snap.
The good times won’t last long as a cold front arrives Wednesday and Wednesday night.
A few scattered showers are possible late Tuesday night over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Most likely, the bulk of the region will remain dry Tuesday night.
Shower and thunderstorm chances ramp up quickly Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon.
Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rain and lightning. There is a low-end risk of severe thunderstorms.
The Storm Prediction Center has been shifting the risk zone further south. I will keep an eye on trends.
I can’t completely rule out a severe thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon and evening.
The cold front will advance eastward Wednesday night.
The main area of low pressure is going to stall out over Missouri Wednesday night into the weekend.
It appears that it will cut off from the jet-stream. If that happens it will help keep clouds and scattered precipitation in our local area.
Those scattered clouds and showers could last into Sunday (if the upper-level low does form and meander in the region).
Rain totals will likely range from 0.5″ to 1.00″. There could be higher totals in thunderstorms, as always.
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In case you missed it. Here was the summer outlook.
I am watching drought conditions in the United States.
The percentage coverage of drought is now the greatest since 2012.
This graphic shows that.
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The long-range team has been updated.
Click on the images to enlarge them.
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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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There are a lot of summer forecasts that are similar. Hot and dry for a decent portion of the United States.
Where will that heat be centered? That may be the bigger question.
Thunderstorm complexes, called mesoscale complex systems, can ride along the edge of the heat ridge.
Here is an interesting article on convective systems and heat waves. Click here for that.
Flash flooding and severe weather can occur along the edge of the heat ridge.
This image is from 2018 and is simply an example.
Again, WHERE that heat ridge sets up is key to where severe storms and heavy rain will occur. Around the edge of it.
Radar from that event. We had widespread wind damage from this June, 28, 2018 thunderstorm complex (Derecho).
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June through August overall forecast.
We are already dealing with drought. Here is the latest drought monitor.
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And here is the preliminary June through August general forecast from the long range team.
Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 66 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 5th through April 11th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 47 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.70″ to 1.00″
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This outlook covers April 12th through April 18th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.60″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers April 13th through April 26th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
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March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
And the preliminary March outlooks
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
Precipitation Outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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Precipitation Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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