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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Sunday – Mostly sunny this morning. Morning frost possible. Increasing clouds through the day. A chance for a late day shower. Mild by the afternoon. Gusty winds at times. High temperatures will range from 58 to 64 degrees. Winds becoming southerly at 10-20 mph. Gusty at times. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No. You should not have any problems on Sunday. Some showers may approach the region Sunday evening. Southwest counties. Elsewhere…rain should hold off until Sunday night.
Sunday night – Increasing clouds. A chance for a shower or thunderstorm. Severe weather is not anticipated. Low temperatures will be in the 50’s. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Early evening plans should be okay. Small chance for a shower moving in from the south/southwest. Better chances later on Sunday night.
Monday – Some clouds. A chance for showers and thunderstorms. Scattered in nature. Severe weather is not anticipated. Highs will be in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s. South winds at 5-10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We could have some showers/storms around.
Monday night – Cloudy with a chance for a thunderstorm. Low temperatures only in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. Southerly winds at 10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We could have some showers/storms around.
Tuesday – Cloudy. A chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? We could have some showers/storms around.
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Frost possible Sunday morning
2. Thunderstorm chances increase on Sunday night
3. Heavy rain and severe weather chances increase later this week
Hello everyone and happy Easter
We will have a cold start to the morning, but we warm up this afternoon (somewhat). Expect most areas to reach into the upper 50’s and lower 60’s. I think we can live with that. We are off to a slow start for spring. But, it will warm up this week!
High pressure dominates are current weather. The high will move off to the east on Sunday afternoon and night. High pressure rotates clockwise. That means when it moves off to the east that our winds will turn around to the south. Southerly wind means more moisture and warmer air.
www.weatherbell.com image
You can see the high pressure moving off to the east on Sunday, on the graphic below. Thus, our winds will start to blow out of the south on the backside of the high.
The good news is that also means we will warm back up.
Highs for Sunday
And on Monday (even warmer by Tuesday with widespread 70’s)
Unfortunately, we are going to have an unsettled pattern over the coming days. Heavy rain and even severe weather will return to the picture by mid/late week.
Rain chances will start to increase tonight and on Monday morning. A warm front will push northward into the region. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be in the forecast. Not expecting severe weather on Sunday night and Monday.
Hazwx.com maps show the return of the rain and storms.
At 1 pm on Sunday you can see the future-cast radar indicates some showers and storms in eastern Oklahoma and Arkansas. This precipitation will push north/northeast.
Then by 10 pm on Sunday night you can see some rain in our region.
Then by 7 am on Monday – future-cast radar. A few showers in the region. Rumbles of thunder possible.
On Tuesday you can see an area of low pressure in the Plains (image below). This low is not going to move very fast. The entire system will sit there most of the week. It will occasionally throw off disturbances that will push into our region. When this happens our chances for rain and storms will increase.
Some severe weather and heavy rain will be possible this week. In particular parts of Missouri and Illinois on Wednesday. Then perhaps the whole area on Thursday/Friday.
Monitor updates, as always. I will need to reevaluate the forecast each day.
This is the Tuesday morning weather map. Some showers and storms possible in our region. Wind fields aloft won’t be all that impressive, thus the severe threat will be minimal until later in the week.
Let’s take a look at the dew points. Remember, meteorologists use dew points to determine how much moisture is in the air. It is a better gauge than humidity.
Once we see dew points in the upper 50’s and 60’s, I start to think about heavier storms.
This is the Sunday dew point map. We are in the 30’s. Dry air. The moist air is confined to the Gulf of Mexico. Way way south. But, watch how quickly it returns. See that little nose of higher numbers over eastern Texas into central Oklahoma?
This is the Monday morning dew point map (below). You can already see that the southerly flow is starting to bring an increase in dew points. By Monday morning dew points are in the 50’s over west Tennessee. That Mississippi River Delta really does a great job. It is easy to bring moisture return to our region.
By Tuesday morning…wow! Dew points into the 60’s over central Illinois and all of Missouri. That was fast. Moisture returned quickly. It will feel more humid this week.
See the extended discussion below for the rest of the week.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
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Increased high temperatures for Tuesday. It could be quite warm. Maybe a few reporting stations will touch 80 degrees. 70’s will be common on Tuesday.
Some frost possible on Sunday morning.
Thunderstorms return on Sunday night and Monday morning. Thunderstorms should remain below severe levels.
Will need to carefully monitor the upcoming week for thunderstorms. Perhaps the best chance of severe weather will arrive with the cold front on Thursday/Friday.
We could also have severe weather on Wednesday. Perhaps our western and northern counties. Monitor updates.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Rivers are on the way up. Recent heavy rainfall will cause sharp rises on some rivers. Monitor updates. We may have another round or two of heavy rain during the upcoming week.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – Frost on Sunday morning? Will we or won’t we have frost. Ground conditions are warm and still wet. Temperatures tonight will dip into the 30’s. If the winds lighten up then frost will be possible. Hopefully our last frost. We shall see.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ONE for Sunday night and Monday. Thunderstorms are possible. Storms should remain below severe levels.
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe thunderstorms are possible
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe thunderstorms are possible
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe weather is not anticipated
Will I need to take action?
Protect sensitive plants for Sunday morning’s frost. We may have frost in the area.
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
Rainfall forecast through 7 am on Monday morning. Some rain possible in our area.
Totals through Friday morning (more will fall after this)
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Stormy forecast for the upcoming week. On and off thunderstorm chances right on through Friday. Some severe storms are possible, as well.
The ingredients will come together for severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday/Friday. Perhaps the chances on Wednesday will be our far western and northwestern counties. Monitor updates.
Thursday and Friday will could all end up in the action. A cold front will push through the region. This front will be accompanied by a line of showers and thunderstorms. Too far out for exact timing.
Instability should be present. Wind fields aloft will also increase.
Officially the Storm Prediction Center has outlined parts of our region for severe weather during this time frame.
This is the Wednesday outlook. Mostly to our west and northwest, but monitor updates. The area outlined is where the SPC believes severe weather could occur. Keep in mind that this is still days away. The outlined area could shift around a bit (same for the second image).
Then by Thursday…chances increase for severe weather concerns. This will continue into Friday, as well. This event could be more intense than the last one (for some areas).
The SPC is very confident that Thursday could bring higher end severe weather, including tornadoes.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
