Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 4, 2025: More severe weather. More flooding.

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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

Zoom National Radar
ZoomRadar

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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 4th through April 10th

Current risk: YES.  There is a risk of severe weather today, tonight, and Saturday.  I can’t rule out a few tornadoes this afternoon and tonight.

Current confidence level: MEDIUM.

Comment:   

Let’s look at today’s graphics.   A level two, three, and four risk.  Supercells are possible.

Hatched means significant severe.

Southern counties for today and tonight.

Damaging wind concerns today and tonight

Tornado risk today and tonight.   Hatched means EF2 or higher tornadoes.

Hail risk today and tonight.  Hatched means golf ball size or larger.

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Let’s monitor Saturday’s severe risk.  We will need to monitor how fast the front moves tomorrow.  That will shut down the severe weather risk.  Hopefully, it moves faster and we can shunt the severe farther southeast.


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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   Lightning is likely into Saturday night.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  YES.  There is a risk of severe weather today into Saturday evening.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? YESSignificant flash flooding is expected.  Significant river flooding is likely.  Flash flooding is likely into Saturday.  Locally, very heavy rain is anticipated.  Some counties could exceed eight inches of rain in total.  Monitor updates.

I am expecting a widespread 5 to 10 inches of rain.  Then, pockets of higher than ten inches will be possible.

That includes what has already fallen.

This graphic is from the NWS.

Totals will vary, of course.  These are extreme numbers.

I expect a widespread 5 to 10 inches and then pockets higher than 1o inches.

Remember, with each passing wave of rain, these numbers will decrease.  You then add in what has already fallen to the future-cast projections.

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4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.  

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees?  NO.  

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Friday update

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Forecast discussion.    

  •   An active 48 hours ahead of us.
  •   Severe storms are likely later today and tonight.  Another risk on Saturday.  Monitor warnings, as always.
  •   A significant flood and flash flood risk will develop into the weekend.
  •   Monitor watches and warnings.  A watch means to pay attention.  A WARNING means to seek shelter or take action.

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Your weatherman is tired.  I know many of you are tired, as well.

We have more weather to go.

Today into tomorrow will bring more heavy rain and severe weather.

We are now back in a level 2, 3, and 4 severe weather risk.  That is a significant risk.

Supercells are again possible this afternoon and tonight.  Some of the hail could be very large.  Some of the tornadoes could be strong.

In addition to that, flash flooding is a significant concern.  An additional four to eight inches of rain is anticipated over much of the region.

This is on top of the one to ten inches that has already fallen.

All of this will lead to major to catastrophic flooding in some areas.

I expect hundreds of roads to flood over the coming days.  Please avoid flooded roadways.  We don’t want you driving into the water and becoming stranded.

Stay updated on all of the latest watches and warnings.

Notice the wide range of temperatures today.  Temps will be highly dependent on the placement of the warm front.

Once the warm front moves north, you will feel the dew points rise.  Temperatures will rise.  That will place you back in the unstable air.

We will be closely watching the radars today for the development of supercells and lines of storms.  Those could be severe.

Stay weather aware.

More storms on Saturday, but they will start to move out Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A few remaining showers on Sunday, but nothing serious.  Many areas will remain flooded.

It will turn colder on Sunday.  I can’t rule out frost next week in some counties.

Perhaps a few showers towards the middle of next week.

Stay abreast of the latest warnings into tomorrow night.

Avoid flooded roadways.

Don’t do this.  You put yourself and others at risk.

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Friday flood outlook.  Another moderate and high risk.

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Saturday flood outlook.  A high risk.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=6 am. 18z=12 pm. 00z=6 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

This is the Hrrr model.


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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 62 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 40 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 63 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
.
More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

.
We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

.
I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
.
WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
.
.
More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar


If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

 

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

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