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Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.
SEE THE DAILY DETAILS (REGION BY REGION) FURTHER DOWN IN THIS BLOG UPDATE.
48-hour forecast
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Monday night and Tuesday. Another chance of lightning Tuesday night and Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I will keep an eye on Wednesday afternoon over our far eastern counties. That would be Christian and Todd Counties, mainly. A few stronger storms may attempt to push into that area. For now, I am watching it. The risk is low.
I am watching next Monday and Tuesday. Some stronger storms are possible depending on the position of the area of low pressure.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.
4. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? No.
5. Is measurable snow or ice in the forecast? No.
6. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
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April 4, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Numerous morning showers. Showers ending west to east through the day. Showers main linger a bit longer over our southern counties. Check the radars.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 70% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous (esp early in the day)
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time. The bulk of the rain will likely be during the morning hours. Becoming more scattered during the afternoon.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 62° to 64° / NW TN 62° to 64°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:37 AM
Sunset: 7:20 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will be higher from late evening into the overnight hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous as the night wears on.
Timing of the rain: Mostly after midnight. Widely scattered before midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 48° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 50° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Winds will be from the: East southeast 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 8:28 AM
Moonset: 11:01 PM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 5, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Coverage will be higher during the morning hours vs afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 60% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous.
Timing of the rain: Coverage will be highest before 12 PM. Becoming scattered after 12 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° / SE MO 64° to 68° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 66° to 70°
Winds will be from the: Southeast to south 8 to 16 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:35 AM
Sunset: 7:21 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered over most of the area. A bit more numerous from Poplar Bluff northward to Ste. Genevieve and over towards Mt Vernon.
Timing of the rain: Scattered before midnight. Increasing coverage from northwest to southeast after midnight.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 48° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 48° to 50° / South IL 46° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 46° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Winds will be from the: South southwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
Moonrise: 9:01 AM
Moonset:
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 6, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 40% / the rest of SE MO ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Highest coverage before 2 PM. Ending west to east.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 64° to 66° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 64° to 66° / South IL 64° to 66° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 66° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 66° to 68°
Winds will be from the: Southwest to west 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A couple of storms could be strong towards Christian and Todd Counties.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and check the radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:34 AM
Sunset: 7:22 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of an early evening showers. Some clearing late.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the rain: Before 7 PM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 40° to 44° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 40° to 44° / South IL 40° to 44° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 44° / West KY 42° to 44° / NW TN 42° to 44°
Winds will be from the: West 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 9:33 AM
Moonset: 12:02 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 7, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Partly sunny before noon. Increasing afternoon clouds from west to east. Windy.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 58° / SE MO 54° to 56° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 54° to 56° / South IL 54° to 56° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 58°
Winds will be from the: Southwest to west 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 55°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:32 AM
Sunset: 7:23 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of a few showers. Shower chances will be higher late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / the rest of South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After 11 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 42° to 44° / SE MO 38° to 42° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 36° to 40° / South IL 40° to 42° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40° to 42° / West KY 40° to 42° / NW TN 40° to 42°
Winds will be from the: West 7 to 14 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 35° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 10:23 AM
Moonset: 12:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Crescent
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April 8, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Windy. Cool. A chance of scattered showers. A rumble of thunder possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 20% / the rest of SE MO ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / the rest of South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 70% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Coverage will be higher east of the MS River vs west of the MS River.
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° / SE MO 50° to 52° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 44° to 48° / South IL 50° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars.
UV Index: 3. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:31 AM
Sunset: 7:24 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Clearing. Colder. A chance of frost if clouds clear and winds subside.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° / South IL 32° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 33° to 36° / NW TN 33° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 25° to 35°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 11:12 AM
Moonset: 1:54 AM
The phase of the moon: First Quarter
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April 9, 2021
How confident am I that this day’s forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 54° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 52° to 54° / South IL 52° to 54° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 54° / West KY 54° to 56° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Winds will be from the: Northwest 8 to 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7. High.
Sunrise: 6:29 AM
Sunset: 7:25 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? MO Bootheel ~ 0% / the rest of SE MO ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / the rest of South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 34° to 36° / SE MO 32° to 34° / I-64 Corridor of South IL 32° to 34° / South IL 32° to 34° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 32° to 34° / West KY 33° to 36° / NW TN 34° to 36°
Winds will be from the: Light wind 4 to 8 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 32° to 38°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:08 PM
Moonset: 2:42 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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** The farming portion of the blog has been moved further down. Scroll down to the weekly temperature and precipitation outlook. You will find the farming and long range graphics there. **
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Today through April 10th: Severe weather is not expected today or Tuesday.
I am watching Wednesday afternoon over our far southeastern counties. That would include Christian and Todd Counties. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms near these two counties.
The risk appears low. The risk is greater to our south and southeast. I will monitor trends.
Severe weather is not expected Thursday through Sunday.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- An unsettled week of weather.
- On and off shower and thunderstorm chances.
- Colder Thursday night into the weekend.
- Monitoring weekend frost chances.
Weather advice:
Make sure you are using the Beau Dodson Weather Talk app and not text messages. We can’t rely on Verizon and ATT to send out the text messages in a timely manner. Thus, we made the app. See links at the bottom of the page.
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Forecast Discussion
An unsettled week of weather ahead.
The good news is that it is not going to rain all day and night (in any given 24-hour period).
We are going to have a series cold fronts move through the region. Upper-level lows. Low pressure centers. A variety of weather producers.
Each one of these will bring clouds and scattered showers and occasionally thunderstorms.
The first system arrives this morning. You can see the rain on radar.
The bulk of the rain will be over my mid-morning across our northern counties. Our southern counties is where the showers may linger into the afternoon hours. Especially the further south you drive.
It appears the bulk of the precipitation will become more and more scattered as we move into the afternoon hours.
Late Monday afternoon into the evening hours should end up mostly dry (outside of perhaps a couple of showers in the area).
It appears the chance of lightning Monday morning and afternoon is low.
Another system arrives Monday night and Tuesday morning. This one has a bit more energy and could produce some rumbles of thunder and some heavier downpours.
That system will push off to the east as we move through Tuesday afternoon and evening.
See the future-cast radars further down in the blog.
Some of the model guidance has been pushing the Tuesday event further and further south. For now, I have fairly high precipitation probabilities. I do believe we see some showers and thunderstorms. Even if the bulk stays to our south.
Another system arrives late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Scattered showers will accompany it.
Some lightning is possible Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, as well.
We should dry out Wednesday afternoon.
A large upper level low arrives late Thursday night into Friday afternoon. This will bring colder air into the region with scattered showers.
Frost is possible Friday night if the clouds clear and the winds subside.
When all is said and done, Monday through Friday’s precipitation totals will likely range from 0.5″ to 1.00″.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the HRW FV3 high resolution model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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.This animation is the higher-resolution 3K NAM American Model.
Double click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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This next animation is the Canadian Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
Occasionally, these maps are in Zulu time. 12z=7 AM. 18z=1 PM. 00z=7 PM. 06z=1 AM
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Double click the graphics below to enlarge them.
These graphics are usually not updated until after 10 AM
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 65 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 42 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 4th through April 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Red/orange is below average. Green/blue is above average. Blue is much above average.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 44 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.20″
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This outlook covers April 10th through April 16th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.80″ to 2.40″
This outlook covers April 15th through April 28th
Precipitation outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
SPRING OUTLOOK
Temperatures
Precipitation.
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Monthly Outlooks
March Temperature Outlook
March Precipitation Outlook
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April Temperature Outlook
April Precipitation Outlook
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May Temperature outlook
May Precipitations Outlook
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SUMMER OUTLOOK
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
June through August temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
June Temperature Outlook
June Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
July Temperature Outlook
July Precipitation Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal
August Temperature Outlook
August Precipitation Outlook
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These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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