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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the threat of heavy rain and potentially a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.
Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE.
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. For now, I have Sunday with a chance of thunderstorms, but below severe levels. I am watching Monday and Tuesday. A few storms could become severe. Monitor updates.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain is possible Sunday into Wednesday. I can’t rule out some issues if heavy thunderstorms develop on those days.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 8:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:10 AM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing PM clouds with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 76° to 78° / NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 8 t0 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 10:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:00 AM
Moonset: 12:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
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May 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 1:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:18 AM
Moonset: 2:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
These maps will be updated between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM. Check back.
THESE ARE THURSDAY’S GRAPHICS
These maps will be updated between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM. Check back.
THESE ARE THURSDAY’S GRAPHICS
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through May 5th. Another chance of thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday. Some storms could be severe. Monitor updates.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:
Avoid flooded roadways.
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Weather Discussion
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- Dry and nice today and Saturday
- Rain chances return Sunday through Wednesday. It won’t rain all of the time.
- Monitoring thunderstorm chances Monday and Tuesday.
7 AM Friday
I updated all the graphics
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A fairly calm pattern today and tomorrow. Get outside and enjoy it.
Our next weather maker will show up Sunday and linger into Wednesday. It is more than one system.
It is not going to rain all of the time. There will be plenty of lulls and dry periods, as well.
Locally heavy rain will be possible throughout the period. Thunderstorms, as well.
The highest instability (CAPE/energy) will arrive Monday and Tuesday. I can’t rule out some severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates. Otherwise, expect this series of events to produce 0.5 to 1.5″ of rain. There could be much higher totals if a thunderstorm complex develops or training of thunderstorms occurs.
Training is when one thunderstorms after another moves over the same areas. This enhances rain totals.
Check out the Wednesday/Thursday thunderstorm event. These are radar estimated rain totals. They varied and there were bands of heavier totals.
Those bands represent where training occurred. Notice what a difference that can make.
Click on the images to enlarge them. Scale is on the left.
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There was a tornado last night in Henry County, Tennessee.
Here were the app messages that I sent out. The rapid-fire tornado messages are always helpful.
NWS of out Memphis, Tennessee, posted this graphic of the Henry County tornado.
Tornado path
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Satellite this morning is showing our region is mostly free of clouds. Check out the thunderstorm complexes in the warm and muggy air to our south.
Those red and deep red areas of heavy rain and storms.
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NOAA’s temperature and precipitation outlook for the 6 to 10 day people.
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And the 8 to 14 day outlooks from NOAA. Our in-house graphics can be found further down in this blog update.
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Some of Wednesday’s incredible hail that fell in Oklahoma and Texas. Can you imagine?
The hail destroyed cars, windows, and roofs. In some cases, the hail went through people’s roofs. Impressive, to say the least.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 53 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 30th through May 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 7th through May 13th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 56 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 10th through May 23rd
This will be updated between 8 and 9 AM
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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