April 30, 2019: Non-subscriber update.

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Today: Lightning is possible. The greatest chance of lightning today and tonight will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances as you move further east/southeast. A few storms Tuesday night could produce quarter size hail and 50 mph wind gusts. A low-end risk of higher winds. The greatest concern would be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
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Tomorrow: Lightning is likely tomorrow and tomorrow night. A few storms could also produce hail and high winds. Monitor updates.

Wet fields will be the concern with shower and thunderstorm chances lasting into at least Friday and perhaps Saturday.
Warm week ahead. Windy, as well.
Active pattern for the next few weeks with frequent rain chances.

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Today through Thursday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is likely Tuesday into Thursday night. The greatest risk on Tuesday and Tuesday night will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Then risk shifts across the region as we move into Wednesday/Thursday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Possible. I am monitoring Tuesday afternoon/night (over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois) and then Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Some storms could be intense with hail and high winds. Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Isolated. There is an isolated flash flood risk. The greatest concern would be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This is where last weeks rain accumulated into the one to three-inch range. Some areas can’t handle heavy rain.

Friday through Tuesday

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning on Friday into Saturday. There is lower confidence concerning Saturday’s forecast.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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I adjusted temperatures upward by a few degrees today.

I adjusted the Friday into Saturday forecast numbers. Added higher rain probabilities.

April 30, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. Breezy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A few storms could be intense over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois late this afternoon into tonight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° SE MO 76° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° West KY 80° to 84° NW TN 80° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 30% to 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 10% Western KY 10% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. The greatest coverage will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances increase late in the day and especially Tuesday night across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. A period of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity is likely tonight across MO/IL.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads and lightning in the above-mentioned areas. A few storms could be intense during the afternoon over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. The bulk of the storms may hold off until Tuesday night. Locally heavy rain where storms do occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars in southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Concern elsewhere is not as great.
UV Index: 6 to 9 (depends on clouds) High to very high. Will vary based on clouds.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Mild. Breezy. Showers and locally heavy thunderstorms likely from southeast Missouri into southern Illinois. Lesser chances as you move east and southeast.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° SE MO 64° to 66° South IL 64° to 66° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° West KY 64° to 66° NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 70% IL 60% over southwest southern Illinois and 30% over southeast Illinois Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: A line of showers and thunderstorms. Numerous over Missouri and Illinois. The line will weaken as it moves further east. The best chance of rain will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances decrease as you move east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Some storms could produce hail and high wind. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Elsewhere, monitor updates and radars.
Sunset: 7:44 PM
Moonrise: 4:11 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:41 PM

May 1, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:

Mostly cloudy. Some pockets of sunshine. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. If storms form they could be locally intense. Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms form.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° SE MO 76° to 80° South IL 75° to 80° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph and gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 50% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Have alternative outdoor plans.
UV Index: 3 to 6 (depends on clouds) Moderate to high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could be strong. Heavy downpours are possible where storms occur.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° SE MO 63° to 66° South IL 62° to 64° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 63° to 66° West KY 63° to 66° NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 6 to 12 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. A few storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates. Have alternative outdoor plans.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
Moonrise: 4:40 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 3:38 PM

May 2, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Showers and locally strong thunderstorms. Some heavy downpours are again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 74° to 78° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° West KY 76° to 80° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning. Some storms could be intense. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor updates.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps a period of numerous showers and storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° SE MO 56° to 60° South IL 56° to 60° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 64° NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: S to SW at 8 to 16 mph. Wind becoming southwest and west at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 64°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 50% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning. Locally heavy rain where storms occur.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would have a plan B and monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:07 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 5:36 PM

May 3, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 76° SE MO 70° to 75° South IL 70° to 75° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° West KY 75° to 78° NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 82°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor radars and updates.
UV Index: 3 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are again possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60° NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 60°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
Moonrise: 5:36 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Crescent
Moonset: 6:36 PM

Saturday: Low confidence. Cloudy. A 40% to 50% chance of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. It appears showers may linger into the weekend. A stalled frontal boundary is the reason. I will continue to update this part of the forecast. Saturday night the rain chances should come to an end. High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s. Low temperatures in the middle 50s. North and northwest wind during the day at 5 to 10 mph. North wind 5 to 10 mph at night. Fog possible if sky conditions clear.

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Sunday: Medium to high confidence. Some morning clouds. Becoming mostly sunny. Warm. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Variable winds. Light.

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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly cloudy. A 30% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Monitor these rain probabilities. They will likely need adjusting as confidence in the final forecast increases. Warm. High temperatures in the upper 70s. Low temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds less than 15 mph. Variable in direction.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Wind forecast

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Agriculture Forecast

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Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Lightning is possible today over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lightning is possible tonight over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Smaller chances across the rest of the region. Lightning is possible area-wide Wednesday into at least Thursday night.

Some storms late this afternoon into tonight could be intense with hail and high winds across southeast Missouri and mainly southwest Illinois.

A few storms could reach severe limits on Wednesday/Wednesday night area-wide. Hail and high wind would be the primary concern. Overall, this appears to be a marginal severe weather set-up. As always, monitor updates. It only takes one storm to cause problems.

Thursday through Monday: I can’t rule out some intense storms on Thursday. Monitor updates. Lightning is possible Friday into Saturday.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Warm weather to continue.
Shower and thunderstorm chances. Coverage ramps up tonight across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
Showers and thunderstorm chances area-wide Wednesday into at least Thursday night.
Rain may linger into Friday and Saturday.

Current conditions.

Today and tomorrow.

The big weather story over the coming days will be the warm temperatures and rain chances.

Today will likely be the warmest day of the week. Numerous locations will see temperatures rise into the lower 80’s. A few middle 80’s are possible.

There will be a few showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance of rain will be over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Chances decrease as you move further east and southeast.

A line of showers and intense thunderstorms will push into southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois late this afternoon into tonight. Some of the storms could produce gusty winds. Isolated severe thunderstorm warnings can’t be ruled out. Locally heavy downpours.

The line will be weakening as it pushes into my forecast counties. That is good news.

It is likely that this line of showers and thunderstorms will fall apart as it enters southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Rain chances will, however, increase area-wide on Wednesday into Thursday night. See below for the Thursday into the weekend forecast.

Rain Wednesday and Wednesday night could be locally heavy. An isolated severe thunderstorm warning is also possible. The main concern will be quarter size hail and a few reports of wind gusts above 50 mph. The overall severe weather risk appears marginal. Not a zero risk. Monitor updates. It only takes one severe storm to cause problems.

Long Range

Thursday through Monday.

Rain chances will be with us Thursday and Thursday night, as well. Locally heavy rain is again possible. A few strong storms can’t be ruled out.

Unfortunately, the trends over the last 36 hours have been to linger rain chances into Saturday.

The reason for this is a stalled frontal boundary. It had appeared that the front would sag far enough south to prevent rain from occurring Friday night into Saturday.

The trend, however, has been to slow the front even further.

If this trend continues to rain chances will, as well. I have added rain and storms into the Friday, Friday night, and Saturday forecast. There could still be adjustments. If you have outdoor plans then monitor updates. Don’t give up, quite yet.

As we move through the next two weeks it does appear that on and off rain chances will continue. Locally heavy rain, at times.

I know many of you would like to have several days of dry weather.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

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Here is the WRF-NSSL model guidance.

Here is the high-resolution Hrrr model guidance.

Time-stamp upper left.

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.Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model.

Time-stamp upper left.

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Here is the NAM future-cast radar. NAM is another model. This is the lower resolution version.

Time-stamp upper left.

Here is the GFS long range animation.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

I pay BAMwx to help with videos.

They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

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Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

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WeatherBrains Episode 692

Tonight’s WeatherBrain features Dr. Harold Brooks from the National Severe Storms Laboratory. Dr. Brooks earned his undergraduate degree in physics and mathematics at William Jewell College outside of Kansas City and performed graduate study at Columbia University. Dr. Brooks earned his PhD on thunderstorm modeling at the University of Illinois.

In addition, our second Guest WeatherBrain Dr. Victor Gensini of Northern Illinois University joins us this week. Dr. Gensini earned his Masters Degree on severe thunderstorm climatology, and wrote his dissertation on severe thunderstorms and climate change. His current focus is on sub-seasonal to seasonal variability, and how that drives weather patterns across the United States. Gentleman, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

Differences in severe weather events in Tornado Alley and Dixie Alley
Future product in-between Watch and Warning to warn residents of manufactured homes?
National Weather Round-up
The Astronomy Report from Tony Rice
and more!

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