April 18, 2018
The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.
An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.
During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).
The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.
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April 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southeast at 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 18
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Otherwise, clear sky conditions and mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 52 to 55
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:42 PM
May 1, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 77 to 84 IL ~ 77 to 82 KY ~ 77 to 82 TN ~ 77 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southwest wind 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 62 IL ~ 58 to 62 KY ~ 60 to 63 TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none.
Winds: South 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:43 PM
May 2, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Windy. Quite warm. An isolated thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 85 IL ~ 80 to 85 KY ~ 80 to 85 TN ~ 80 to 85
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South and southwest wind 12 to 25 mph and gusty.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Odds favor it remaining dry. Isolated wet roads and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check updates and radars
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Increasingly cloudy sky conditions. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 72 IL ~ 66 to 70 KY ~ 66 to 70 TN ~ 68 to 72
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Winds: South and southwest at 8 to 16 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Isolated wet roadways and lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? A low-end risk of isolated strong thunderstorms.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
Sunset: 7:44 PM
May 3, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. The greatest chance may be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. The chances would then increase eastward during the late afternoon and evening. A strong thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 80 to 84 IL ~ 80 to 83 KY ~ 80 to 84 TN ~ 80 to 84
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Lightning. A strong thunderstorm possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. A few strong storms possible during the afternoon.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts and radars
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~62 to 65 KY ~ 64 to 66 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. A few storms could produce heavy rain and gusty winds.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be strong. The overall severe weather risk is limited. Monitor updates, as always.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
May 4, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 76 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: Southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Winds becoming west and northwest late in the day.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. Clearing overnight. Any remaining rain will exit to the east.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 55 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Ending. None.
Winds: West and northwest wind at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:46 PM
May 5, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:55 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 53 to 56 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light and variable
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:47 PM
May 6, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 77 IL ~ 73 to 76 KY ~ 74 to 76 TN ~ 75 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:54 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 7, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Light winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:53 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:48 PM
May 8, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunrise: 5:52 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of showers.
Temperatures: MO ~ 55 to 60 IL ~ 55 to 60 KY ~ 55 to 60 TN ~ 55 to 60
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?
Sunset: 7:49 PM
RAIN TOTALS
Click images to enlarge.
WPC/NOAA seven day rain forecast
Most of this falls Thursday into Friday.
Notice, there are differences in all the guidance packages.
GFS model guidance seven-day rain forecast
Canadian model guidance seven-day rain forecast
EC model guidance
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Monday through Tuesday night: Severe weather is not anticipated. Small chance of lightning over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Tuesday night.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: A few thunderstorms are possible area-wide. If a storm forms it could produce heavy rain, lightning, small hail, and gusty winds. The risk of severe weather is small.
Thursday through Friday night: Thunderstorms are likely to occur Thursday into Friday. A few of the storms could be intense. There is a risk of a few severe thunderstorms. Monitor updates.
Saturday and Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
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Weather Headlines
- Nice weather today into Tuesday night. Warm days and cool nights.
- Monitoring a low-end risk of thunderstorms Wednesday.
- Rain chances increase Thursday into Friday.
- Dry weekend anticipated (Saturday and Sunday)
We are in planting season. We haven’t been worried about the lack of rainfall over the past 90 days. We have received too much rain across our region.
The drought monitor map shows drought confined to southern Iowa and then back into the southwest United States. Portions of Kansas and Oklahoma have been hit hard by drought conditions.
The SPI index is a better way of measuring moisture. Let’s look at the charts.
First, here is the 90-day precipitation totals. Just look at how wet our region has been.
This next map is the 30-day SPI index. You can see we range from neutral conditions to moderate wetness. A few small patches of severe wetness.
This next graphic is the 90-day SPI index. You can see that over the last 90 days were exceptionally wet. The 30-day map above shows you that we have received some improvement, but could still use a break from the rain.
This next map (below) is the 30-day percent of normal precipitation. Our region ranges from 100% (normal) to 150% above normal in the rainfall department. Too wet.
There are a few patches of drier conditions, over the last 30 days, across southeast Illinois and a couple of small patches in the Missouri Bootheel, Kentucky, and Tennessee. You have to look hard to find them.
This next map (below) is the 90-day percent of normal precipitation. Our region ranges from 110% to 150% above normal in the rainfall department. Too wet.
It has also been cool. As a matter of fact, April will go down as one of the cooler April’s in the record books.
Where you see the 126 is where it is the coolest April in 126 years.
Click to enlarge. This is the Midwest map.
The good news is that we will remain dry today and Tuesday. Most of us will also remain dry Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
A few showers may develop late Tuesday night across southeast Missouri and northwest portions of southern Illinois. The chances are limited. I can’t rule out lightning.
Wednesday will deliver quite a bit of sunshine and warm conditions. The atmosphere is forecast to become unstable. There won’t be much in the way of lift. This raises the question as to whether a thunderstorm or two might form. For now, the chances at any given spot are low. Plan on dry conditions. A couple of heavy thunderstorms could form. The area of impact would be rather limited.
Let’s keep an eye on it. For the most part, plan on dry weather Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Rain chances increase as we move into Thursday, Thursday night, and Friday.
A cold front, responsible for several days of thunderstorms to our west, will push into our region Thursday night/Friday. This front will then become the focus of showers and thunderstorms.
A few of the thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rain. PWAT values will be high. That means plenty of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.
If thunderstorms were slow moving or train over the same areas then a few locations could receive more than an inch of rain.
Here are the GFS model guidance PWAT values for Wednesday night into Friday. Notice them increasing on Thursday and Friday ahead of the cold front.
The higher PWAT values tend to pool ahead of fronts. That can enhance rainfall totals.
The timestamp is located in the upper left portion of the graphic.
Let’s take a look at CAPE numbers. CAPE is basically energy for thunderstorms to tap into. Higher CAPE levels typically lead to increasing severe weather concerns. Notice how they spike well to our west. Several severe thunderstorms are likely to impact the Central Plains over the coming days.
Thankfully, the CAPE numbers won’t be as great in our region. We will have some thunderstorms to deal with but a widespread severe weather event appears unlikely. Monitor updates, as always.
Here is the CAPE animation. Timestamp upper left.
The greatest chance of rain will be Thursday afternoon into Friday afternoon. Moving from west to east across the region. Hopefully it will move out by Friday evening. It appears it will. Monitor updates on the timing.
At this time, Saturday and Sunday are shaping up to be dry and mild. Some guidance attempts to pop a few showers over the weekend. For now, however, I am not in agreement with those models. I have kept the weekend rain-free. I will monitor trends.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 640
Tonight’s WeatherBrain is the Emergency Response Meteorologist for the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters, Jennifer McNatt. Also joining us is Elinor Lutu-McMoore, the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS office in Pago Pago, American Samoa.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Thermal, CA, & Death Valley, CA, and 15 at Estcourt Station, ME
- Kevin checks out phased-array radar prototype
- Discussion on issue of differing graphics from different weather agencies
- Gulf coast tornadoes on 4/22
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
