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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Friday afternoon – A good chance for showers and thunderstorms. A break in the evening hours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
Winds: East and northeast at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southeast towards evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous. Especially the southern three quarters of the region.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Friday Night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Especially late. Evening hours may end up dry.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% chance for precipitation.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small chance for hail.
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A 50%-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some intense storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case storms do redevelop.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates because some storms could become severe.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Hail possible. Tornado risk is low, but not zero.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Need a lightning tracker website? Here you go
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms ending early in the day. Becoming partly cloudy. A few afternoon showers and thunderstorms are still possible.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% early in the day. 40% in the afternoon.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be rain to deal with early in the day. We should be drying out as the day wears on.
Is severe weather expected? Small chance for intense storms.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty winds near any storms that form.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog possible. Small chance for a remaining shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog. Wet roadways.
Monday – Partly sunny. Perhaps some morning fog in spots
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe isolated towards the afternoon hours. Southern counties. That would be near the KY/TN border.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy morning fog
Monday Night – Some clouds possible. Cool. A shower possible. Perhaps best chance would be near the KY/TN border.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered perhaps
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways possible.
Tuesday – Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday Night – Some clouds possible. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 50s
Winds: Winds west and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Partly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday Night – Some clouds possible. Cool. A shower possible. Mainly over our northeast and eastern counties. That would include southeast Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some wet roadways.
Thursday – Partly cloudy. Mild. A small chance for a shower during the morning hours.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe wet roadways. Otherwise, none.
Thursday Night – Partly cloudy. Cool.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 5 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday – Partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: Northeast at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Showers and storms on Friday and Friday night
- Strong storms Saturday afternoon and night?
- Mostly dry weather Monday into Thursday
- Watching another system towards next weekend
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
The main weather story will be the ongoing showers and thunderstorms that are moving into and through the area. We have an area of low pressure that will push into the Missouri Valley on Saturday and Saturday night. The system will be weakening as it moves northeast.
Be sure and check out the interactive city view radars. You can monitor hail, wind, rainfall totals, precipitation movement, storm tracks, watch, warnings, and more! Just pick your local city and watch the storms. Track the rain
Expect some showers and thunderstorms tonight into Saturday morning. Then, a lull is anticipated. Whether additional storms form during the afternoon is questionable. Instability is forecast to build on Saturday afternoon and evening. CAPE values may top 2000. CAPE is a measure of energy for thunderstorms. But, the question will be the trigger. With the system weakening on Saturday afternoon it will mean wind fields will be weakening, as well. But, everything combined should provide at least a medium chance for scattered thunderstorms redeveloping.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday night and Saturday morning then be sure and have a plan B. Saturday afternoon and night is questionable on precipitation coverage. I suppose I would encourage you to have a plan B for that time period as well. But, I would personally not cancel afternoon plans. Again, monitor updates in the event heavy storms do redevelop.
Thunderstorms that do develop on Saturday afternoon and night could be intense. Hail is the main concern. Also, perhaps some strong winds. Severe weather can’t be ruled out. Confidence is medium that storms will redevelop Saturday afternoon and night. Monitor updated forecasts.
Some showers will continue into Sunday. I believe the thunderstorm risk on Sunday is low. And, showers should be coming to an end. If we are lucky then much of Sunday might end up dry. No promises on that. I do expect some showers.
Rainfall totals from Friday into Sunday could vary quite a bit. But, generally 1/2-1″ appears likely. Then pockets of 1-2″ expected.
Cool weather into next week. Overnight lows well down into the upper 40s and lower 50s. And, mostly upper 60s and lower 70s for highs. Not hot weather.
I am monitoring another storm system for next weekend. Model guidance shows the potential for more thunderstorms. Whether that system arrives on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or Monday is still a question mark. Too far out for confidence. I am confident there will be another system.
May might end up with above normal precipitation if this pattern continues. Several storm systems to monitor over the coming weeks. Some with heavy rain.
There are some indications of a stormy pattern at the end of May, as well. We seem to be in a pattern where we have active, active, active, a lull, then active again. Been that way since November.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There will be a level two risk for severe weather on Saturday afternoon and night.
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Friday night: Severe weather threat is low. Perhaps a few storms. Lightning will be the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates
Saturday night and Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Mainly on Saturday night. Hopefully Sunday we will dry out. Monitor updates.
Monday – Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Next Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates. Storms are again possible next weekend.
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No major changes in this forecast update.
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Some intense storms are possible this weekend. Especially on Saturday afternoon and night. Monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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Rain chances will go up during Friday evening and overnight hours. Some heavy storms can’t be ruled out. Atmosphere will be unstable on Saturday afternoon and night. Heavy storms are possible.
Rainfall totals from Friday into Sunday could vary quite a bit. But, generally 1/2-1″ appears likely. Then pockets of 1-2″ expected.
Current broad-brushed rainfall totals. Keep in mind that intense storms can drop a LOT more rain
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
