9 AM
SPC has shifted the risk further east for later today.
Once we get through this mornings storms then perhaps the next severe weather threat will be a bit to our east/southeast.
Will be close. Will need to monitor.
Currently storms in west KY have some severe thunderstorm warnings. These storms are producing high winds and heavy rain.
New outlook from SPC
Note the red area has shifted east.
Still, some chances for storms in yellow (later today – once this round moves out). But, greatest risk has shifted east a bit.
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are averages.
Friday – Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some storms could be severe (esp southern half of the region). Rain ending from west to east later this afternoon. Falling temperatures late in the day. Highs will mainly be in the 60’s to lower 70’s. Southwest winds at 10-15 mph becoming northwest at 10-25 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy. Widespread showers and thunderstorms. Some locally heavy rain.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Friday night – Rain ending over eastern counties. Clearing late. Colder. Lows in the 30’s. Northwest winds at 10-20 mph decreasing late to 5 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Showers should come to an end. They will linger the longest over our eastern and southern counties.
Saturday – Mostly sunny. Chilly start to the morning. I can’t rule out frost. Morning temperatures will start out in the 30’s and rise into the 50’s to lower 60’s during the afternoon. Damp ground conditions for outdoor activities. North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Saturday night – Mostly clear and chilly. Lows will be in the upper 30’s to lower 40’s. Light winds. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Sunday – Partly cloudy. Chilly start to the day, but warming up a bit by the afternoon. Increase in clouds late in the day. Damp ground conditions for outdoor events. Temperatures rising into the 60’s. South winds at 10-15 mph. My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No.
Rain chances return Sunday night into most of next week. Monitor updates.
Eclipse Forecast – Clearing is expected Friday night. It does appear clouds will have thinned out and moved on off to the east during the eclipse. The greatest chance for clouds would be over our far eastern counties (Daviess County, KY down towards Todd County, KY). Hopefully the clouds will exit those areas, as well.
When? Saturday morning. The moon may set before the start of the total eclipse, keep that in mind.
More information on the eclipse – click here
Central Daylight Time (April 4, 2015)
Partial umbral eclipse begins: 5:16 a.m. CDT
Total eclipse begins: 6:58 a.m. CDT
Greatest eclipse: 7:00 a.m. CDT
Total eclipse ends: 7:03 a.m. CDT
Moon may set before start of total eclipse
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Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Overnight heavy rains may have caused some flooding. Use care if roads have water over them.
2. Rain and storms will continue on/off today.
3. Chilly tonight with a chance of scattered frost
4. Next week could be a stormy one. Monitor updates closely. Flooding is a concern.
Let’s focus on today (then discuss the holiday weekend)
We will have showers and thunderstorms on Friday morning. Some of them will be on the heavy side.
Expecting some sort of complex of storms to roll across southern Missouri early on Friday morning into the mid-morning hours (2 am through the 9 am time frame). This line could have some line segments and bowing echoes. Strong winds would be possible if this occurs.
Instability may increase as the day wears on. That means that additional thunderstorms may develop. A few storms could produce high winds and hail. I can’t rule out a tornado. An area of low pressure will be moving through our region, that means wind fields will be a bit more favorable today for severe storms.
Monitor updates as we move through the day. Complicated set-up on Friday for forecasting severe weather. Cloud cover will make a big difference. If we end up socked in with clouds and rain then the threat goes down. More sun and the threat goes up.
Another concern will be flooding. Some places picked up 1-3″ of rain yesterday late morning and early afternoon. Then additional rains fell overnight. Avoid flooded roadways.
Colder air arrives later today. Temperatures will fall over our northwest and northern counties this afternoon.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Clickable warning map – click your county
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1. Flooding. Overnight rains will have caused rises on creeks and rivers. Ditches may be overflowing, as well. Avoid flooded roadways if you were in one of the counties that picked up 3″+ of rain.
2. At least a chance today for some additional severe thunderstorms. Main concern would be hail and high winds. I can’t rule out a tornado, as well. The main concern will be southern counties. See graphics below.
3. Perhaps some scattered frost tonight (Friday night).
4. I am already concerned about next weeks weather. Storms and heavy rain possible. Still early for details, but I don’t like the look of the charts. Monitor updates.
Graphic for early morning hours…we may see another round during the late morning and early afternoon hours. IF that does develop then it could produce severe weather. Whether this second round of storms does form is highly dependent on instability building. If the sun comes out, behind the morning round, then chances for severe weather will increase.
The late morning and afternoon concerns (again – highly dependent on instability rebuilding)
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Rivers may rise again next week as heavy rain develops. Closely monitor the latest weather information as we move forward.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Smithland Lock and Dam
Umbrellas today! No doubt about that.
Monitor updates if severe storms develop. See the graphics for the areas of most concern.
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – The wild card in this forecast is going to be frost. Will some locations see frost later tonight (Friday night). Temperatures will drop into the 30’s. If the winds die down then the risk for frost will increase.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is THREE/FOUR (for portions of the region). See graphics for details.
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – There is a risk for a few storms becoming severe.
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather risk
Sunday Severe Weather Outlook – No severe weather risk.
Monday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Monitor updates
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
How much will it rain? Too much is the answer. We do not need this rain. But, it is what it is. Additional rainfall total will total in the 0.50″-1.50″ range. This is on top of what fell overnight. Flood watch continues for the region. Additional heavy rains are likely next week. Closely monitor updated forecasts over the coming 7 days.
Totals will vary greatly over the region.
This graphic includes what fell on Thursday night…keep that in mind.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
I have a lot of concerns about next weeks week. Both severe thunderstorms and flooding rains. If the models are correct then multiple rounds of storms will occur between Sunday night and next Wednesday or Thursday. This would cause flooding in our region.
The charts show a front stalling out over our region. Instability will certainly not be a problem next week. High dew points and PWAT values equal heavy rains.
If you live in flood prone areas then you will want to closely monitor the latest weather forecasts.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
For the most up to date maps – click here
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
