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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
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April 29, 2017
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Flash flood watch. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storm could be severe. Heavy rain likely. Flash flooding likely in areas that are already flooded. Additional areas may flood, as well. If you live in a flood prone area then be alert for rising water. Warm. Windy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 74 IL ~ 65 to 72 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 35 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Wet roadways. Some storms could be severe with hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Monitor updates. Flash flooding.
Is severe weather expected? Yes.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 100% IL ~ 100% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? have a plan B, in case it rains.
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April 30, 2017
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Windy. Partly to mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be heavy. Some severe storms possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 74 to 78 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 74 to 78 TN ~ 74 to 78
Winds: South winds at 15 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways. Some storms could become severe with hail and damaging winds. A non-zero tornado risk, as well. Heavy rain possible. Flooding possible. High winds possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Some storms could be severe.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 90% TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Showers likely. Some evening thunderstorms possible. Cooler. Rain and storms ending west to east. Windy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Winds becoming west and northwest behind the front at 10 to 25 mph with gusts to 38 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Evening storms could be strong with lightning, gusty winds, and hail. Once the main line passes then just remaining showers.
Is severe weather expected? Perhaps early. This will depend on how fast the front moves through the region.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 70% KY ~ 70% TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread ahead of the front. Becoming scattered as the night wears on.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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May 1, 2017
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny and cooler. Windy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: West and southwest winds at 15 to 35 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear and cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 45 to 50
Winds: West winds at 4 to 8 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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May 2, 2017
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
Winds: Southwest and west winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 15 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
Is severe weather expected? No.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 50 to 55 IL ~ 50 to 55 KY ~ 50 to 55 TN ~ 50 to 55
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Saturday night: Severe thunderstorms are possible with damaging winds, hail, and short lived tornado. High risk for flash flooding in areas already having issues. Flash flooding possible elsewhere, as well
Sunday: A cold front will enter the region on Sunday and Sunday night. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Severe weather is possible. Monitor updates.
Weather analysis for the next few days:
Life threatening flash flooding is ongoing across portions of Missouri and Illinois. Some areas picked up 4 to 8 inches of rain on Friday night and Saturday morning. Significant flooding is occurring.
Here is a graphic from WSIL TV 3
Additional heavy rain is on the way. This will only make matters worse in some areas. Expect major rises on area rivers over the coming short and mid term period. The larger rivers will also be on the rise.
Avoid flooded roads.
A line of thunderstorms will push into our region from Missouri and Arkansas late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. The line may slow down a bit as it enters our area. Heavy rain is a major concern for areas already experiencing flash flooding.
Training of showers and storms is a possibility. That will cause flooding concerns to be enhanced.
The atmosphere is juiced. It is rare to see dew points in the 70’s during the Month of April. That is what is occurring. Heat index values on Saturday afternoon were nearly 90 degrees over extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. Portions of southeast Missouri, as well.
The line of storms could produce damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Monitor watches and warnings.
Here was the 3 PM Saturday radar of the squall line approaching from the west. Utilize the local city view radars (links at top and bottom of this page)
During the overnight hours heavy rain may continue. It is possible rain will be on radar right on into Sunday morning. You can expect widespread 0.50″ to 1.5″ of rain across the region. Pockets of 2″ to 4″ likely. Isolated areas could receive higher amounts. This is on top of the rain that has already fallen. Some areas will top ten inches of rain since Friday.
On Sunday the cold front will finally move into the area. This will bring another chance for severe weather. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be on radar throughout the day.
It is possible that another squall line will form along the cold front. There remain some questions about this. Flash flooding is a concern on Sunday, as well. Again, the atmosphere is juiced.
The main concern on Sunday would be damaging winds and perhaps an isolated tornado risk. It is uncertain how unstable the atmosphere will become on Sunday. Clouds and ongoing precipitation could hold instability in check. If that were the case then the risk for severe weather would be less. Monitor updates, as always.
Monitor updates frequently through the weekend.
Avoid flooded roadways.
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We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions
