April 29, 2024: Scattered thunderstorms today. Additional shower and thunderstorm chances later this week. Warm.

Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section

Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible today and this evening. Lightning chances return late Wednesday night/Thursday into Friday night. I will need to monitor Saturday into Sunday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? LOW RISK. There is a low end risk of a few storms producing high winds today into this evening. I will monitor Thursday onward.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? LOW RISK. Locally heavy rain is possible today with any thunderstorms that form. There is a low risk of a storm producing enough rain to briefly cause issues with ditches and low spots. I will monitor late week.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? NO.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Monday through Monday night: 3. Very low risk.
Tuesday: 5. Medium risk.
Tuesday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

An area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to bring a widespread wetting rain as it moves slowly eastward across the Quad State today and tonight. Light winds and dry conditions are expected Tuesday, then south winds will lead to a significant warm up for Wednesday and Thursday. Another storm system will then bring a good chance of thunderstorms to the region from late Thursday through Friday. A cold front will briefly turn the winds from the north for Saturday, then south winds return for Sunday.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

.

Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Monday Forecast: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 90%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 70%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 90%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 90%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 90%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 72° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 72° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 72° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 72° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 72° to 75°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 73° to 76°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 73° to 76°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor updated forecasts and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
.

Monday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 70%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous early. Tapering west to east overnight.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 54°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 54° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 53° to 56°
Southern Illinois ~ 54° to 58°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 55° to 60°
Far western Kentucky ~ 55° to 60°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 55° to 60°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 55° to 60°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 12:52 AM
Moonset: 10:00 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Tuesday Forecast: Partly cloudy. Most likely Tuesdays will be dry. Some data paints a tiny chance of storms over eastern portions of western Kentucky. See graphic. I will keep chances very low.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 80° to 84°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 80° to 84°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
.

Tuesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Again, most likely dry. Some data paints small chances of precipitation as you draw closer to St Louis. I kept chances locally very low.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 20%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely dry. An isolated chance far north. Again, odds favor dry conditions.
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time.
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 62°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 62°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 62°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 62°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 62°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 62°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 7 to 14 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 1:41 AM
Moonset: 11:10 Am
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
Southeast Missouri ~ 83° to 86°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 83° to 86°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Southern Illinois ~ 83° to 86°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 83° to 86°
Far western Kentucky ~ 83° to 86°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 83° to 86°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 83° to 86°
Winds will be from this direction: South southwest 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 83° to 86°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
.

Wednesday Night Forecast: Partly cloudy. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 10%
Southeast Missouri ~ 10%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 10%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 10%
Southern Illinois ~ 10%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 10%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 10%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
Southeast Missouri ~ 60° to 65°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60° to 65°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Southern Illinois ~ 60° to 65°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 60° to 65°
Far western Kentucky ~ 60° to 65°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 60° to 65°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 60° to 62°
Winds will be from this direction: South southeast 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:23 AM
Moonset: 12:23 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warm week ahead of us.
2. Shower and thunderstorm chances today into this evening.
3. Dry conditions Tuesday and most likely Wednesday, as well.
4. Thunderstorm chances return Thursday into the weekend.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

** NEW SERVICE ** I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.

We also have a new service to compliment your www.weathertalk.com subscription. This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.

WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is in a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning. It only calls you if your home is inside the warning polygon. If you are outside the polygon it will not disturb you.

More information on the WeatherCall subscription service here.

https://weathercallservices.com/beau-dodson-weather

Beau’s Forecast Discussion

About half of the region was impacted by showers and thunderstorms last night. A few of the storms were severe in southeast Missouri earlier this morning.

All of that activity has died down.

Rainfall totals have varied from above an inch to nothing.

That matches up with the forecast, thus far.

Now, the rest of the region will experience showers and thunderstorms today. As we move through the morning and afternoon hours, we will see radar light up with showers and storms.

A few of the storms could be locally intense with gusty wind. The threat of actual severe weather is minimal, at best. I can’t completely rule out a severe thunderstorm warning for the most intense storms, but the Storm Prediction Center (as of 6 am) has not outlined our region. I will monitor it.

Rainfall totals today will vary greatly. From less than 0.10″ to more than an inch. Similar to what happened last night. Thunderstorms will enhance rain totals, as always. If you end up under a couple of storms then you could easily pick up an inch of rain.

Here is what the National Weather Service is forecasting for rain totals. You can see they have a band or two of heavier streaks of precipitation.

We are in drought. We need rain. I know many of you are asking me or telling me that you need more rain.

Double click the image to enlarge it.

Showers and storms will continue into this evening, before tapering off west to east.

Tuesday into Wednesday is shaping up to be mild and dry. The chances of precipitation will be 10% or less.

Rain chances begin to ramp back up late Wednesday night into Thursday as a series of upper level disturbances and fronts begin to interact with low level moisture across our region.

We are going to have shower and thunderstorm chances from late Wednesday night straight on through the weekend.

Peak chances appear to be Thursday night/Friday and Sunday night/Monday.

It won’t rain all of the time, of course. But on and off chances of precipitation. This might make it a bit more difficult if you have outdoor plans or planting.

It is a bit early to know if this weekend’s thunderstorm chances will bring a low level severe weather threat. For now, the Storm Prediction Center has not outlined our region for severe storms, but that could still change. I will need to monitor data over the next couple of days.

I will monitor Thursday night/Friday and then Sunday night/Monday.

Next week could be stormy, as well. It appears a slow moving frontal system will bring on and off thunderstorm chances to the region. Data points to a bit more instability to work with. If that happens, then we could see some severe thunderstorm threats developing. Monitor updates. We have plenty of time to monitor trends.

—-> I will be off work the first week of June.

I am taking my dad to Normandy, France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. During that time, I will be away from the computer. Just a heads up!

My Great Uncle, Robert Dodson, was a meteorologist who parachuted in to forecast for D-Day and Operation Overlord. We are going over to commemorate the event.

Staff Sergeant Robert A. Dodson enlisted in the Army in August 1941 and trained as a weather observer at New Orleans Army Bomber Base in September 1941.

In April 1944, Sergeant Dodson was assigned to the 21st Weather Squadron in Ascot, England and a month later he volunteered jump school training. As his paperwork was being processed, the jump school was shut down in preparation for “D-Day”. Undaunted, Sergeant Dodson and his commanding officer convinced the 82nd Airborne Division, located at Manchester, England, to make room for one more soldier. Sergeant Dodson became a member of an Air Support Party from Ninth Air Force attached to Headquarters, 82nd Airborne Division, which consisted of an Officer in Charge, five communications men who acted as forward air controllers, a driver, and a weather observer, equipped with a half-track and a “veep” (radio equipped jeep). Sergeant Dodson received a minimum of mock-up training before making his first and only jump.

At 0230hrs on 6 June 1944, Sergeant Dodson jumped with Force “A” of the 82nd Airborne Division commanded by Brigadier General James M. Gavin. The sky was moonlit and practically clear when he landed about a mile northeast of St. Mere Eglise, France in a field where cattle were grazing. One other man had landed in the same field with him and the two of them set out at once toward the head of the stick, in spite of a knee injury Sergeant Dodson sustained during the jump. As they proceeded they picked up eight other members of their outfit one at a time. Things were progressing according to schedule and they had yet to make contact with the enemy. They found three injured men along the way, gave them first aid, and continued on. Along the way they recovered their equipment which they unpacked, selected a VHF radio, and camouflaged the rest of the equipment in a hedgerow before finally linking up with the command post which had relocated to St. Mere Eglise.

The Germans counterattacked, and during thirty-six hours all members of the Air Support Party acted as riflemen. When the siege was lifted, Sergeant Dodson began his weather observing duties. Each hour he sent by radio the present weather, wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling and cloud heights, temperature, and dew point. For the last elements he was equipped with a shielded psychrometer and psychometric tables, while all other elements were determined visually. This work continued until 21 June, when Sergeant Dodson was evacuated to the hospital at Bouteville for treatment on the knee he injured during the jump. He later returned to his unit, which returned to England when it was relieved on 13 July. Sergeant Dodson, who made his first trip to France during the war with a parachute as a weather observer with the 82nd Airborne Division, returned to France with the headquarters of Ninth Air Force and the 21st Weather Squadron, serving out the rest of the war as chief dispatcher at the motor pool. He left the service in September 1945.

Sergeant Dodson’s military decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, Purple Heart, Europe-Africa-Middle East Campaign medal with 4 bronze service stars (for the Normandy, Northern France, Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns), American Defense Service Medal, and Distinguished Unit Citation. The Air Weather Service recognized Sergeant Dodson’s World War II service in July 1987 by naming its Specialized Support Award in his honor.

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
.

48-hour precipitation outlook.
..

_______________________________________

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.