Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the threat of heavy rain and potentially a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.

Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG.  CLICK HERE.

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April 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  Medium confidence
Thursday  Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms.  Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 80%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% /    South IL ~ 80%  /  West KY ~ 90%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100%  /  NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation:  Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 72° to 74°  /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 74°  /  NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.  Locally heavy rain.  A few intense thunderstorms are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Have a plan B.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast:  Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms ending west to east.   Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 20%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 50%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered.  Ending west to east.  There remains questions about the timing of this system pulling away from our region.
Timing of the rain:  Mainly before midnight.  Monitor.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° /  SE MO 46° to 52°  /  South IL 48° to 52° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° /  West KY 50° to 54° /  NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars and updates.
Moonrise: 11:11 PM
Moonset: 7:57 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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April 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Friday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74°  /  SE MO 70° to 74°  /  South IL 70° to 74°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74°  /  West KY 72° to 74°  /  NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° /  SE MO 46° to 50°  /  South IL 48° to 52° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° /  West KY 48° to 52° /  NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 8:50 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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May 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Saturday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Mild.  A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78°  /  SE MO 73° to 76°  /  South IL 73° to 76°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76°  /  West KY 74° to 78°  /  NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8.  Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast:  Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 0%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% /    South IL ~ 0%  /  West KY ~ 0%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0%  /  NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° /  SE MO 52° to 55°  /  South IL 52° to 55° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° /  West KY 52° to 55° /  NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed:  Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:10 AM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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May 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  High confidence
Sunday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny during the morning.  Increasing PM clouds with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% /    South IL ~ 20%  /  West KY ~ 20%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20%  /  NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80°  /  SE MO 74° to 78°  /  South IL 74° to 78°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78°  /  West KY 76° to 78°  /  NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 8 t0 16 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but check the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 56° to 60°  /  South IL 56° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 58° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 10:54 AM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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May 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  LOW confidence
Monday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 80°  /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78°  /  West KY 76° to 82°  /  NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Monday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A  chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 56° to 60°  /  South IL 56° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 58° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:00 AM
Moonset: 12:00 PM
The phase of the moon:  Last Quarter

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May 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  LOW confidence
Tuesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 40%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% /    South IL ~ 40%  /  West KY ~ 40%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40%  /  NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 80°  /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78°  /  West KY 76° to 82°  /  NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A  chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 56° to 60°  /  South IL 56° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 58° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 1:05 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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May 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify?  LOW confidence
Wednesday  Forecast:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.  A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82°  /  SE MO 76° to 80°  /  South IL 76° to 80°  /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78°  /  West KY 76° to 82°  /  NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph.  Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast:  Partly cloudy. A  chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30%  /  MO Bootheel ~ 30%  /    I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% /    South IL ~ 30%  /  West KY ~ 30%  /   NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30%  /  NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:  Scattered
Timing of the rain:  Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° /  SE MO 56° to 60°  /  South IL 56° to 60° /  Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° /  West KY 58° to 60° /  NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed:  South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:18 AM
Moonset: 2:09 PM
The phase of the moon:  Waning Gibbous

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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through May 5th. A few intense storms are possible today with high wind.  Another chance of thunderstorms Sunday through Wednesday.  Some storms could be severe.  Monitor updates.

The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the threat of heavy rain and potentially a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.

Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG.  CLICK HERE.

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Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

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It was a long day yesterday and last night.  I will keep it brief today.

Rain and thunderstorms will taper from west to east this morning.  Rain will linger long over southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.

Some new development is possible by late morning into the afternoon.  Locally heavy rain will continue to be a concern.  Some storms could produce high wind, as well.  The tornado risk is again low.

There was a tornado last night in Henry County, Tennessee.

Here were the app messages that I sent out.  The rapid-fire tornado messages are always helpful.

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There was a tornado that caused damage.  Here are some photos.

There was a strong radar signature for a tornado.  You can see the hook echo from Henry County, Tennessee.

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Rain totals have been extreme across portions of the region.  A widespread one to three inch rain event has occurred.  Some locations, however, received less than a half-inch of rain.  The forecast was for several bands of very heavy rain and then lower totals in some counties.  That is what happened.

Here are the 7 AM rain totals (still raining over much of the region).

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Avoid flooded roadways.

There is a low-end risk of severe thunderstorms today.  The primary concern will be high winds.  A low tornado threat.

We will need to monitor this afternoon in case storms refire along the incoming cold front.  That is a possibility.

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This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

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This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

 

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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

 

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 29th through May 5th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 6th through May 12th

Click on the image to expand it.

 

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

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THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

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Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″

This outlook covers May 7th through May 20th

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Precipitation outlook

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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