April 28, 2021. Beau’s subscriber’s weather blog update. Not a subscriber? Go to www.weathertalk.com/welcome Once subscribed, download the WeatherTalk app in the app store

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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.

The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the threat of heavy rain and potentially a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.

Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE.

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Wednesday to Wednesday

1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Wednesday, Wednesday night, Thursday, and then Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. There is a chance of a few severe thunderstorms today and tonight. A lower risk Thursday. I am watching next week, as well.

The primary concern would be damaging wind and perhaps an isolated short-lived tornado. Remember, it only takes one severe thunderstorm to ruin the day. Monitor updates. Instability is in question with this event.

The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Locally heavy rain is likely Wednesday into Thursday. If thunderstorms train over the same areas, then some locations could exceed two inches of rain. There is disagreement among the models as to the exact placement of the heaviest rain totals. It is possible there are two areas of higher totals. One across portions of SE MO and south IL and a second max from the Bootheel into Kentucky. This will need to be monitored. Locally heavy rain is likely with this event. Some locations could top four inches of rain. Some of the data shows greater than five inches.

4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.

5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.

6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.

April 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could produce gusty wind and heavy rain.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% / MO Bootheel ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 70% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous/widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 75° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few intense thunderstorms are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% / MO Bootheel ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 90% / NW TN ~ 90%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous/widespread
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few intense thunderstorms are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:56 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible. Precipitation will taper NW to SE through the late morning and afternoon hours.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain. A few intense thunderstorms are possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms ending west to east. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 20% / MO Bootheel ~ 20% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending west to east. There remains questions about the timing of this system pulling away from our region.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight. Monitor.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 54° / SE MO 46° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 50° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Moonrise: 11:11 PM
Moonset: 7:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

April 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 70° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 8:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild. A nice day.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:00 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:10 AM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 2, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Increasing PM clouds with a chance of a shower or thunderstorm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 12 PM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 78° / West KY 76° to 78° / NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 8 t0 16 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Sunset: 7:46 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways and lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Moonrise: 1:17 AM
Moonset: 10:54 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 3, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Sunset: 7:47 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:00 AM
Moonset: 12:00 PM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter

May 4, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Sunset: 7:48 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:46 AM
Moonset: 1:05 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

May 5, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? LOW confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm. A chance of a few thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 82° / SE MO 76° to 80° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 78° / West KY 76° to 82° / NW TN 76° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest wind 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 75° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 5:56 AM
Sunset: 7:49 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 30% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 56° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: South at 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 55° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 3:18 AM
Moonset: 2:09 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)

Double click on the images to enlarge them.

Graphic-cast

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Illinois

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

Kentucky

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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.Tennessee

During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.

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Today through May 3rd.

The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the threat of heavy rain and potentially a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.

Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE.

Some thunderstorms could be severe with damaging wind being the primary concern. There could be an area of higher risk over portions of southern Illinois, Kentucky, far southeast Missouri, and northwest Tennessee. There is higher than normal uncertainty about the placement of the greater risk zone.

The Storm Prediction Center is closely monitoring the situation for both today and Thursday. There may have to be a higher risk zone introduced. That would likely be a slight risk (level 2 of 5). Let’s keep an eye on it.

Locally heavy rain is likely with this event. Some locations could top three inches of rain. Some of the data shows greater than four inches.

Another thunderstorm episode is possible next Tuesday or Wednesday. Several days to monitor that event.

Today’s outlook (below).

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.

The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.

The black outline is our local area.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.

The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.

24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:

Locally heavy rain Wednesday into Thursday. Some roadways could flood. Training showers and thunderstorms will be the culprit. Training is when thunderstorms repeatedly move over the same areas.

Some thunderstorms could produce high winds.

Weather Discussion

1. Flash flood watch for portions of the region.
2. Very heavy rain likely with this event in SOME counties. More than four inches likely for some.
3. Widespread one to three inch rain event.
4. I had to add shower/storms to the Sunday forecast into next week. Heavy rain likely at some point from that series of storm systems, as well.
5. River flooding concerns are rising.

7 AM Wednesday

I updated all of the graphics.

The SEVERE WEATHER BLOG has been activated for the threat of heavy rain and potentially a couple of severe thunderstorm warnings.

Here is the link for the SEVERE WEATHER BLOG. CLICK HERE.

Flash flood watch. More counties may be added.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are developing on radar. As of this writing, at 6 AM, there were numerous showers and storms already showing up from Texas into Illinois. This will only increase through today and tonight.

Some of the high resolution models indicate bands of greater than four inches of rain. A flash flood watch was issued for portions of the region. I can’t rule out more counties being added.

Even though recent ground conditions have been mostly dry, rains of this magnitude could cause problems. River flooding is likely in some areas due to the widespread nature of the heavy rain.

There remain some questions about the exact placement of the heaviest rain totals. For now, portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois continue to be signaled for a band of three to five inches of rain. Locally higher possible.

As far as far southeast Missouri, the Bootheel, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee…we should remain on alert for the potential of very heavy rain, as well.

Either way, a widespread one to three inch rain event is likely. This could flood some roadways.

The GFS ensemble plumes are showing a medium reading of 2.57″ for Paducah. This continues to rise with each run of the GFS model. It is a strong signal for locally heavy rain.

I continue to monitor the risk of a few severe thunderstorms. The primary concern would be damaging wind gusts, although a brief tornado can’t be ruled out. This is highly dependent on surface instability rising. CAPE is what we call that. Surface CAPE is normally associated with severe thunderstorms.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined our region in a marginal risk. That would be upgraded to a level two (slight risk) if we had a bit more CAPE to work with. Let’s monitor it.

PWAT values will be high for an extended period of time. This is a locally heavy rain signal.

Hrrr model PWAT anomaly animation. A long stretch of moisture with this next system (mid-week). That is an indication that some locally heavy rain may occur.

The dark blue and purple zone are where moisture levels are highest. The longer that lingers over one spot, the greater the chance of heavier rain totals.

.Dew point is used to determine moisture in the lower levels. A few point around 70 is muggy air.

Check out the Hrrr high resolution model forecast for dew points. This is a copious of amount of moisture for thunderstorms to tap into.

Here is the NOAA rainfall forecast through Thursday.

Click on the images to enlarge them.

NOAA/WPC does have portions of our region in a martingale to slight risk of excessive rainfall. That simply means there could be enough rain to trigger some water issues. Let’s keep an eye on the placement of the yellow zone.

Today and tonight

And the Thursday excessive rainfall outlook. This may need adjusting further northeast with the slight risk zone.

Click on the images to enlarge them.

NAM 3K model. Look at the significant differences in the guidance.

Hrrr model through Thursday.

The Hrrr has always been further south with the heaviest rain vs the other models. This is something that needs to be watched.

GFS model continues to slowly edge southward.

We dry out Thursday afternoon and night. Dry Friday through Saturday night. I had to increase shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday night into next week.

Some of the data shows rain Sunday afternoon. Let’s keep an eye on it. Either way, it appears rain chances will return at some point Sunday into next week. I can’t rule out locally heavy rain.

Of some concern, PWAT’s next week. They return to very high numbers. This could mean more heavy rain. Not what we want to hear.

Needless to say, the risk of river flooding over the next few weeks will be higher than normal. Especially true if we have heavy rain next week (on top of this event).

Additional flash flooding is also likely if next weeks event pans out, as well.

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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.

What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.

I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.

You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.

This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.

.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

This next animation is the GFS American Model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

With more rain possible next week.

This next animation is the EC European Weather model.

This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.

Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.

With more rain possible next week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″

Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.

This outlook covers April 28th through May 4th

Click on the image to expand it.

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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 5th through May 11th

Click on the image to expand it.

The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.

THIS IS UPDATED ON TUESDAY AND FRIDAY

Outlook definitions
EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average

Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 76 degrees
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″

This outlook covers May 7th through May 20th

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Precipitation outlook

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION

Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.

Spring Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

March, April, and May Temperature Outlook

March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook

April outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Temperature departures

April precipitation outlook

May outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Temperature outlook

May precipitation outlook

The preliminary June outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

Temperature departures

June precipitation outlook

Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

July Temperature Outlook

July precipitation outlook

Preliminary outlooks

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

August Temperature Outlook

August precipitation outlook

Summer Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Temperature Outlook

E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.

June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook

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These are bonus videos for subscribers.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here

Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.

Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.