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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Thursday Night – Mostly clear. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the Lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 5 mph. Winds may become more northwest late.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy fog. Otherwise, none.
Friday – Becoming cloudy. Warm. Showers and thunderstorms developing over southeast Missouri and spreading eastward late in the day.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower to middle 70s
Winds: East and northeast at 5-10 mph. Winds becoming southeast towards evening.
What is the chance for precipitation? 70% as the day wears on. Precipitation arrives first over southeast Missouri. It then spreads eastward.
Coverage of precipitation? Becoming numerous.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for the late morning and afternoon hours.
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Wet roadways and lightning.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
Friday Night – Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds east and southeast at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Small chance for hail.
Saturday – A good chance for morning showers and thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may redevelop late in the afternoon and evening. If storms do redevelop they could be intense.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: South and southeast at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning, locally heavy rain. Some risk for intense storms.
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A 40%chance for showers and thunderstorms. Some intense storms possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 5-10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B in case storms do redevelop.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours.
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms ending early in the day. Becoming partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: South and southwest at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50% early in the day
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? There could be rain to deal with early in the day. We should be drying out as the day wears on.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog possible. Small chance for a remaining shower.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog. Wet roadways.
Monday – Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny, otherwise.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North and northwest at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Maybe isolated. Should be drying out Sunday night.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy morning fog
Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Mild.
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Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- More storms on the way
- Strong storms Saturday afternoon and night?
- Drying out on Sunday
- Mostly dry Monday through Thursday*
The main weather story for the short term will be yet another storm system approaching our region from the south and southwest. This system will start to spread clouds into the region on Friday morning and afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Friday afternoon over southeast Missouri and northern Arkansas. These showers and storms will spread into the rest of the region during the late afternoon and evening hours. Severe weather is not anticipated on Friday. Some storms could produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. Pea to dime size hail, as well.
Showers and thunderstorms will be with us on Friday night into Saturday night.
Your Interactive City View Radars: Track the rain
The atmosphere will become unstable on Saturday afternoon and evening. If we were to have intense storms then this is when it would occur. I would suggest monitoring the latest weather information concerning Saturday’s forecast.
If you have outdoor plans on Friday night into Saturday night then have a solid plan B. If you do that then you will be okay. Rainfall totals will vary this weekend. Expect widespread 0.40″-0.80″ with pockets of 1-2″. Remember, thunderstorms can drop very heavy rainfall totals if they train over the same areas. We have witnessed that lately.
The system will pull out of the region on Sunday morning. A few remaining showers are possible Sunday. But, overall the precipitation should be coming to an end.
At this time it appears we will have mostly dry weather Monday into Thursday of next week. There is a chance for isolated showers on Monday and Tuesday. But, I believe this will not be of anything significant.
Another storm system will approach our region next week. More thunderstorms are possible. Spring rains.
The WRF guidance is showing showers and some storms moving into southeast Missouri on Friday afternoon. Here are some maps from weatherbell. com
This first image is for Friday around 1 pm
Green represents rain. This is for 4 pm on Friday afternoon.
This next map is for Saturday morning around 10 am.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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There will be a level two risk for severe weather on Saturday afternoon and night.
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Thursday night: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible with storms during the afternoon. Perhaps gusty winds as well. Small chance for small hail.
Friday night: Severe weather threat is low. Perhaps a few storms. Lightning will be the main concern. Heavy downpours.
Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates
Saturday night and Sunday: Thunderstorms are possible. Strong storms can’t be ruled out. Mainly on Saturday night. Hopefully Sunday we will dry out. Monitor updates.
Monday – Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Next Saturday and Sunday: Monitor updates. Storms are again possible next weekend.
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No major changes in this forecast update.
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Some intense storms are possible this weekend. Especially on Saturday afternoon and night. Monitor updates.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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A few showers and storms could move into the region on Friday afternoon. Rain chances will go up during the evening and overnight hours. Some heavy storms can’t be ruled out. Atmosphere will be unstable on Saturday afternoon and night. Heavy storms are possible.
Current broad-brushed rainfall totals. Keep in mind that intense storms can drop a LOT more rain
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
