Updated numbers at 8 am to reflect a southerly shift in the storm tracking along the Gulf of Mexico
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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary quite a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Tuesday – Cool start to the morning. An increase in clouds from the southwest. Highs mostly in the 60’s. Light northeast winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Morning School Bus Stop Weather – Some clouds and cool. Morning temps in the 40’s. Light northeast winds.
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Afternoon School Bus Stop Weather – Partly cloudy. Temperatures mostly in the 60’s. Light northeast winds.
Tuesday night – Partly cloudy sky conditions. Cool once again. Temperatures mainly in the 40’s. Light north/northeast winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Wednesday – Quite a bit of sun over parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois, some clouds elsewhere. Temperatures mainly in the 60’s. Light north/northeast winds.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is medium
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Wednesday night – Clearing. Cool. Temperatures in the 40’s. North and northeast winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans
Thursday – A mix of sun and clouds. Perhaps a breeze at times. A chance for a shower over our northeast counties of SE IL, SW IN, and NW KY. Temperatures in the 60’s. Northeast winds at 10-15 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No reason to cancel plans – northeast counties could pick up a shower.
Sunrise and Sunset Times – Click Here
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by TransAmerica Agency Network Paducah District – you can visit their Facebook page here and their home page here
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. Increasing clouds today
2. Small/light shower chances as a system passes to our south
3. Warmer by the weekend!
4. Sustained warmth showing up in the charts?
Well, we have a storm system passing to our south. I have been watching this system for about the last eight days. It is going to be a close call as to whether or not some light showers make it this far north. Data is spitting out 10%-20%chances for mostly our southern counties. Mainly over western Tennessee (northwest counties). Further south rain chances go up a bit.
Rainfall totals, if rain does occur, would be less than 0.10″. Small chances, overall.
Another weak system approaches from the northwest in Thursday. Maybe a shower or two for our northeast counties (say from Mt Vernon, IL down towards Evansville, IN and then into northwest Kentucky. Scattered, at best…if they occur.
Temperatures are going to remain below normal through most of this week. We will start to warm up by the weekend. Expect temperatures in the 70’s by Saturday and Sunday. That is the good news! Warmer weather is on the way.
I will be watching to see if moisture returns with the warmer air, as well. I may have to introduce some shower or thunderstorm chances by later in the weekend (northern counties).
See the extended forecast below for more information on the long range outlook.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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No major changes to the current outlook. Still working through the small rain chances for Tuesday night and Wednesday. Data is mixed on whether or not rain can make it this far north. I did mention the possibility.
No major concerns over the coming days. Great news for the end of April. Normally this is a very active time of the year when it comes to severe weather. Let’s enjoy the calm.
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Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
The wild card tells you where the uncertainties are in the forecast
Wild card in this forecast – the wild card continues to center around some light showers over our southern counties from Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The data is mixed on this happening. Showers would be light if they occur.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level is ZERO
Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Thursday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Friday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
Saturday Severe Weather Outlook – Severe Weather Is Not Anticipated
How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
If showers occur over our southern counties then they would be light. Rainfall totals should not exceed 0.20″. Most areas will remain dry.
You can see hints of that precipitation here on the graphic below. Low confidence on the rain pushing this far north. Better chances down in Tennessee.
This section of the blog is speculative forecast information. Because it is past the range of what meteorologists can forecast accurately, it should be considered speculation. Anything past day 5 is considered a long range forecast.
Who would like some warmer temperatures? I have some in the charts. It appears we will warm up by the weekend and into next week. Possibly sustained warmth. That has been sorely lacking so far this spring. That may be about to change. Let’s hope!
Check out the Friday through Sunday temperature map! Let’s not jinx this. A nice weekend? Say it isn’t so!
May 1, 2015
May 2, 2015
And Sunday (may be a storm or two far far northern counties on Sunday or Sunday night (more like St Louis area over towards Mt Vernon)
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Please visit your local National Weather Service Office by clicking here. The National Weather Service Office, for our region, is located in Paducah, Kentucky. They have a lot of maps and information on their site. Local people…local forecasters who care about our region.
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
This blog was inspired by ABC 33/40’s Alabama Weather Blog – view their blog
Current tower cam view from the Weather Observatory- Click here for all cameras.
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
The Weather Observatory
Southern Illinois Weather Observatory
WSIL TV 3 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Illinois Road Conditions
Marion, Illinois
WPSD TV 6 has a number of tower cameras. Click here for their tower camera page & Kentucky Road Conditions & Kentucky Highway and Interstate Cameras
Downtown Paducah, Kentucky
Benton, Kentucky Tower Camera – Click here for full view
Benton, Kentucky
I24 Paducah, Kentucky
I24 Mile Point 9 – Paducah, KY
I24 – Mile Point 3 Paducah, Kentucky
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
