2018 Teddy Bear Fund Raiser Campaign!
WE HAVE REACHED OUR GOAL!!!!
Thank you, everyone!
The Shadow Angel Foundation is raising money for new teddy bears to be donated to Child Watch and PASAC of western Kentucky. This is our 15th year of donating new bears to these two organizations.
This is a matching fundraiser. That means your donation is doubled.
If you would like to help then follow this link
April 18, 2018
The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.
An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.
During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).
The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
- Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone. These are hand typed by Beau. During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
Haven’t you subscribed? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
April 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. A few passing clouds. Mild. A sprinkle possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 75 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 70 to 74 TN ~ 72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 5% KY ~ 5% TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none or isolated sprinkles
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 42 to 46 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph early becoming 10 to 20 mph and gusty late from the north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
April 28, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild temperatures.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 60 to 66 (coolest near Mt Vernon) KY ~ 63 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Wind from the north at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds for boaters
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog possible. Monitor light frost chances.
Temperatures: MO ~ 38 to 44 IL ~ 36 to 42 KY ~ 37 to 42 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West and northwest evening winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph. Winds becoming light overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor frost chances
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
April 29, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 43 to 45 IL ~ 42 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 44 TN ~ 44 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:41 PM
April 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Otherwise, clear sky conditions and mild. Breezy.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:42 PM
May 1, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 77 to 84 IL ~ 77 to 82 KY ~ 77 to 82 TN ~ 77 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:59 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 65 IL ~ 62 to 65 KY ~ 63 to 65 TN ~ 63 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 5% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:43 PM
May 2, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A small chance of storms over southeast Missouri. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. Monitor storm chances. Wet roads and lightning would be the concern.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 5:58 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A few storms possible. Breezy. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Most likely no
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:44 PM
May 3, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the potential of heavy downpours and strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 60 to 65 IL ~60 to 65 KY ~ 60 to 65 TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 40% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the potential of heavy rain. Monitor the potential of strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:45 PM
May 4, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms again possible. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 70 to 75 IL ~ 70 to 75 KY ~ 70 to 75 TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Sunrise: 5:56AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some clouds. A chance of showers and thunderstorms. The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 53 to 56 KY ~ 53 to 56 TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds:
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates. Most likely no.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:46 PM
RAIN TOTALS
LOW confidence on the timing of rain next week. Locally heavy thunderstorms are possible along an incoming cold front. Data is mixed as to the timing of the front. I am confident there will be a period of showers and thunderstorms next week.
Over the past 24 hours the guidance has slowed the front by about 12 to 24 hours.
I believe the greatest chance of rain will be Thursday into Friday night. That does not mean we may not have some storms Wednesday and Wednesday night. Confidence is higher, however, on Thursday into Friday night.
These charts will not capture the potential of heavy rain. Slow moving or training thunderstorms can always produce two or three times the amount of rain forecast. Monitor updates as we will have quite a bit of moisture to work with. Some heavy rain is possible.
Why the large differences in rain totals?
Each model brings the system into the region at different times. Additional rain may fall after 7 AM Friday. These maps take you to Friday morning.
They will change. This is their first attempt.
Click images to enlarge.
WPC/NOAA seven day rain forecast
GFS model guidance seven day rain forecast
Canadian model guidance seven day rain forecast
EC model guidance
Rainfall through 7 AM next Friday (notice it is the slowest of all the models)
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Friday through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Monitor updates. A few thunderstorms are possible, especially over southeast Missouri. For now, confidence in storms Wednesday is rather low. Severe weather is unlikely Wednesday into Wednesday night.
Thursday through Friday night: Monitor updates. Increasing chances for thunderstorms during this time frame. A few storms could be intense. Heavy rain is a concern if thunderstorms train over the same areas.
Analog forecasts are showing some signals for strong storms next week.
What are analogs?
Here are the analog maps. The colors basically mean thunderstorms are possible and some storms could be intense. The darker the color shading the greater the risk. The largest risk is too our west. Whether this shifts eastward will need to be monitored.
This is day five (Wednesday, May 2nd)
This is Thursday, May 3rd
This last one is Friday, May 4th
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
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Weather Headlines
- Dry today through Tuesday
- Warm days and chilly nights
- Light frost Saturday night
- Increasingly warm and humid next week
- Monitoring the potential of thunderstorms Wednesday into Friday night
- Locally heavy rain where thunderstorms occur
Rev the engines up! A beautiful weekend is in store for the region. One of the nicest weekends since last fall!
Warm days and chilly nights will rule through Monday.
Highs today through Monday will range from the middle 60’s to middle 70’s.
We will have some chilly nights ahead of us. Lows tonight will range from 42 to 46. Lows Saturday night will range from 36 to 44. Some light frost can’t be ruled out Saturday night. The greatest risk area would be across southern Illinois and western Kentucky. Northern southeast Missouri may also have frost.
Here is the GFS model. This is showing you Sunday morning lows. It is showing 30’s into our region. Let’s keep an eye on it.
Patchy fog will also be possible during the morning hours.
You really could not ask for nicer weather. Let’s enjoy it! We have earned it.
Tuesday through next weekend
The weather becomes more unsettled as we move towards the middle and end of next week. The main concern may end up being Thursday into Friday night. We may dry out again Saturday and Sunday, although confidence isn’t all that great, yet.
A series of systems are forecast to impact the Missouri and Ohio Valleys.
PWAT values will be on the increase as we move into Wednesday and Thursday.
PWAT is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. High PWAT values for an extended period of time can mean heavy rain.
This is the PWAT value map for next Thursday. These numbers are fairly high and would be a signal for heavy rain. We need lift. That may come in the form of a cold front or stationary front Thursday into Friday night. The timing will need to be monitored.
Notice the source region of this moisture. The Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Rich moisture.
Let’s look at an PWAT value animation from the GFS weather model. These are PWAT values. Notice the dark blue and purple colors training over the same area for an extended period of time. That is a signal for heavy rain. The question is where do the higher values train? That will need to be worked out over the coming days.
Severe Weather
Severe thunderstorms are likely over portions of the Central United States next week. Whether they impact our region is still a question. The greatest risk may remain just to our west.
I suspect we see at least a marginal to slight risk on one or two days next week. The most likely area would be southeast Missouri. Still a bit early for details, but the signals are there.
Further west of our region may see a more organized severe weather event.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 640
Tonight’s WeatherBrain is the Emergency Response Meteorologist for the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters, Jennifer McNatt. Also joining us is Elinor Lutu-McMoore, the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS office in Pago Pago, American Samoa.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Thermal, CA, & Death Valley, CA, and 15 at Estcourt Station, ME
- Kevin checks out phased-array radar prototype
- Discussion on issue of differing graphics from different weather agencies
- Gulf coast tornadoes on 4/22
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars. If a radar does not update then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
