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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Monday to Monday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. late Tuesday night over southeast Missouri. Wednesday and Thursday area-wide. Centered on Wednesday night and Thursday. Another chance next Tuesday into Wednesday.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am monitoring Wednesday night/Thursday. For now, the risk appears small. I am monitoring next Tuesday and Wednesday.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday night and Thursday. The highest risk of heavy rain will be across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois (points N NW from there). At least one to two inches of rain may fall. Some of the models show more than that. This could cause some brief water issues. We will need to monitor training showers/storms. If training lasts longer than forecast, then flooding would be a concern.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 78° to 80° / South IL 78° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 80° / West KY 78° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 25 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Breezy, at times. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 25 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:22 PM
Moonset: 5:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny morning. Some PM clouds. Windy and warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 15 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night thunderstorms over mainly southeast Missouri.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered. The activity will be higher over southeast Missouri.
Timing of the rain: After 12 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 64° to 66° / SE MO 63° to 65° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 64° to 66° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 6:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Partly sunny. Warmer over our eastern counties vs western. More clouds over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Increasing clouds west to east. A few showers and thunderstorms developing. There remain questions above coverage Wednesday.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 50% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 40% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 40% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day. Higher chances PM vs AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 74° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 100% / MO Bootheel ~ 90% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 100% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of time.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 60° to 64° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: South southwest at 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 65°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:56 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 29, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain possible.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 70% / MO Bootheel ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 70% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest becoming west at 8 to 16 mph with higher gusts possible.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunset: 7:43 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms ending west to east. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 40% / South IL ~ 40% / West KY ~ 50% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 50% / NW TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Ending west to east. There remains questions about the timing of this system pulling away from our region.
Timing of the rain: Mainly before midnight. Monitor.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northwest at 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and updates.
Moonrise: 11:11 PM
Moonset: 7:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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April 30, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Friday Forecast: Partly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 72° to 74° / SE MO 72° to 74° / South IL 70° to 74° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° / West KY 72° to 74° / NW TN 72° to 75°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 75°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Sunset: 7:44 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° / SE MO 46° to 50° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 48° to 52° / West KY 48° to 52° / NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: North northeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 52°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: : PM
Moonset: 8:50 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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May 1, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? Medium confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° / SE MO 73° to 76° / South IL 73° to 76° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 73° to 76° / West KY 74° to 78° / NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: East at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 78°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 4. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:0 AM
Sunset: 7:45 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° / SE MO 52° to 55° / South IL 52° to 55° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 52° to 55° / West KY 52° to 55° / NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 12:10 AM
Moonset: 9:49 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through May 3rd. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. General thunderstorms are likely Wednesday and Thursday. Centered on Wednesday night/Thursday. Perhaps a few lingering into Thursday night.
Another thunderstorm episode is possible next Tuesday or Wednesday. Several days to monitor that event.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:
Locally heavy rain is possible Wednesday night and Thursday. Avoid flooded roadways, if some were to develop.
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Weather Discussion
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- Much warmer.
- Rain chances mid-week.
- Locally heavy downpours but the severe risk appears small.
- Record low severe weather in our local area.
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Much warmer air today and Tuesday will greet the region. We have been waiting for this. The warm air will linger into Wednesday, as well. Especially in areas without clouds and rain.
Let’s check out those temperatures.
Monday
Tuesday
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Rain Wednesday and Thursday will keep temperatures a bit lower (at least over MO/IL).
Check out Saturday and Sunday’s temperatures. I did increase them a bit.
Saturday
Sunday
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Let’s enjoy it! We have earned it.
There will be gusty winds over the next few days. As a matter of fact, winds may gust above 35 mph today and Tuesday. Perhaps the highest being Tuesday.
I would not be surprised to see some gradient winds top 40 mph. Gradient winds are from the barometric pressure difference over the region.
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Our next widespread rain event arrives late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois.
The showers and thunderstorms may hold off across much of the region until Wednesday night, Thursday, and Thursday night.
Generally, there has been a six to twelve hour slowing of this system (when compared to late last week’s forecast for it). There remains some disagreement among the different model packages. Since the trend has been slower, that is the route I took. Trends usually tell us more than what the models are showing.
Either way, there could be some radar echoes as early as late Tuesday night into Wednesday (day). Then, activity increases as we move later in the period.
Some of the showers and thunderstorms could train over the same areas. Locally heavy rain totals would be the end result.
Area-wide, I am forecasting a 1.00″ to 2.00″ rain event. With pockets of two or more inches likely over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.
The GFS ensemble plumes are showing a medium reading of 2.45″ for Paducah.
This is a decent increase from yesterday’s update.
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The good news, is that it appears the threat of severe weather will be low. Perhaps not zero, but the signal for widespread severe thunderstorms (locally, at least) is not all that great. The signal for moderate to heavy rain is higher.
I will keep an eye on instability. Monitor updates.
It appears that the Paducah, Kentucky, National Weather Service has only issued 14 severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings, thus far in 2021. That would be a record low number. It has been a very quiet severe weather season, thus far. Locally, at least. The next lowest was 20 in 1995.
May and June can always bring severe thunderstorms. Thus, let’s not let our guard down. It only takes one bad event for a memorable severe weather season.
Again, as mentioned above, models have slowed the system by 12 to 24 hours. The bulk of the rain will likely occur Wednesday night into Thursday night.
PWAT values will be high for an extended period of time. This is a locally heavy rain signal.
GFS PWAT anomaly animation. A long stretch of moisture with this next system (mid-week). That is an indication that some locally heavy rain may occur.
The dark blue and purple zone are where moisture levels are highest. The longer that lingers over one spot, the greater the chance of heavier rain totals.
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Here is the NOAA rainfall forecast through Thursday.
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NOAA/WPC does have portions of our region in a martingale to slight risk of excessive rainfall. That simply means there could be enough rain to trigger some water issues. Let’s keep an eye on the placement of the yellow zone. Let’s see if it shifts to the south and east, with time.
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NAM model rainfall forecast
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EC model
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GFS model (it went all in on rain totals)
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Let’s take a look at the latest drought monitor.
This is one way to NWS measure moisture/drought. This takes into account a longer period of time. The semi-perma drought of the Southwest United States satnads out. Another bad fire-season? Looks that way.
A developing drought area runs along the Great Lakes into portions of New England.
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The quick drought response maps (a better way to see soil moisture) shows a significant portion of the USA in dry conditions. This is a concern as we move into summer. A large section of the USA needs rain.
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Our weekend soaking rain was much needed, by many.
This map was made before the Saturday rain event. You can see that our region, for the past 30 days, was quite dry. Yes, there was some rain, but not as much as we needed. The weekend 0.5 to 1.5″ rain event helped. I will keep an eye on this map over the coming weeks.
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I am watching next Monday night into Wednesday for another round of showers and thunderstorms. Some of those could also produce heavy rain. Long way off.
The GFS shows the band of showers and thunderstorms move across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 26th through May 2nd
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers May 3rd through May 9th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 7th through May 20th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
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The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
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If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
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