Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 26, 2018: Non-subscriber update. Milder weather is on the way.

2018 Teddy Bear Fund Raiser Campaign!

We are about $300 short for our fundraiser.  Please consider donating $5 or $10.  Much appreciated!

The Shadow Angel Foundation is raising money for new teddy bears to be donated to Child Watch and PASAC of western Kentucky. This is our 15th year of donating new bears to these two organizations.

This is a matching fundraiser. That means your donation is doubled.

If you would like to help then follow this link

 

 

 

April 18, 2018

The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.

An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.

During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).

The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.

 

WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00.  Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs.  I work for you.

For $3 a month you can receive the following.  You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.

  1.  Severe weather app/text alerts from my keyboard to your app/cell phone.  These are hand typed by Beau.   During tornado outbreaks, you will receive numerous app/text messages telling you exactly where the tornado is located.
  2.  Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
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  5.  Direct access to Beau via text and email.  Your very own personal meteorologist.  I work for you!
  6.  Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
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  9.  Monthly outlooks.
  10.  Your subscription also will help support several local charities.

Haven’t you subscribed?  Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com

Example of a recent severe weather alert.  I issued this well before the official tornado warning.  You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.

Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.

 

 

 

 

April 26, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly cloudy before noon.  A chance of spotty showers.  Shower chances will end over most of the area but linger along the Kentucky and Tennessee border counties into the afternoon.  The sun may start to poke through as we move into the afternoon hours over the rest of the area.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 65 to 70      IL ~  65 to 68          KY ~ 65 to 70       TN ~  65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 50% over the Bootheel decreasing to 10% over Perry County, MO          IL ~  30% before 12 PM       KY ~ 60% near the KY/TN State line decreasing to 10% near Owensboro          TN ~ 60% early decreasing to 30% late in the day.
Coverage of precipitation: None far north and northeast increasing to scattered/numerous from the Bootheel of MO and then along the KY/TN border.  Rain will push off to the east as we move through the day.  That means it lingers longer near LBL and east of there.
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor radars for potential showers.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM

 

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  A sprinkle possible as the cold front moves through the region.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 43 to 46       IL ~ 43 to 46       KY ~ 44 to 48        TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 10%      IL ~  10%       KY ~  10%          TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation:  None to isolated
Winds: North at 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:39 PM

 

April 27, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.   A few passing clouds.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 75      IL ~  68 to 74         KY ~ 70 to 74       TN ~  72 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  5%       KY ~ 5%          TN ~ 5%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none or isolated sprinkles
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:04 AM

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 42 to 46       IL ~ 42 to 46       KY ~ 44 to 48        TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph early becoming 10 to 20 mph and gusty late from the north
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:40 PM

 

 

April 28, 2018
Saturday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Mild temperatures.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68      IL ~  64 to 66         KY ~ 64 to 68       TN ~  64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds:  Wind from the north at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Gusty winds for boaters
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:03 AM

 

Saturday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cool.  Patchy fog possible.  Monitor light frost chances.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 38 to 44       IL ~ 36 to 42       KY ~ 37 to 42        TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: West and northwest evening winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph.  Winds becoming light overnight.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Monitor frost chances
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:40 PM

 

April 29, 2018
Sunday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 64 to 68      IL ~  64 to 68           KY ~ 64 to 68        TN ~  65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast wind at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:02 AM

 

Sunday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cool.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 43 to 45      IL ~ 42 to 45       KY ~ 42 to 44        TN ~ 44 to 46
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:41 PM

 

April 30, 2018
Monday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Mostly sunny.  Warmer.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 76      IL ~  72 to 76         KY ~ 72 to 76       TN ~  72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South and southeast at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 6:01 AM

 

Monday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds.  Otherwise, clear sky conditions and mild.  Breezy.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58       IL ~ 53 to 56       KY ~ 53 to 56        TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: South at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:42 PM

 

May 1, 2018
Tuesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly sunny.  Warm.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 77 to 84      IL ~  77 to 82        KY ~ 77 to 82       TN ~  77 to 82
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: South 7 to 14 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:59 AM

 

Tuesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear to partly cloudy.  Mild.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 62 to 65       IL ~ 62 to 65       KY ~ 63 to 65        TN ~ 63 to 65
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 5%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: South 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:43 PM

 

May 2, 2018
Wednesday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Partly sunny.  A chance of scattered thunderstorms.  Breezy.  The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 75 to 80      IL ~  75 to 80       KY ~ 75 to 80      TN ~  75 to 80
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~ 30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the potential of heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunrise: 5:58 AM

 

Wednesday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy.  Showers and thunderstorms possible.  Breezy.  The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 70 to 75       IL ~ 70 to 75        KY ~ 70 to 75        TN ~ 70 to 75
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~  40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the potential of heavy downpours.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No, but monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:44 PM

 

May 3, 2018
Thursday F
orecast Details
Forecast
:  Mostly cloudy. A  chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 72 to 76      IL ~  72 to 76         KY ~ 72 to 76       TN ~  72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 40%      IL ~  40%       KY ~ 40%          TN ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph and gusty
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the potential of heavy downpours and strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  Medium
Is severe weather expected?  Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunrise: 5:57 AM

 

Thursday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast:  Mostly cloudy.  A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  The probability numbers will change as confidence in the forecast increases.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 60 to 65       IL ~60 to 65       KY ~ 60 to 65        TN ~ 60 to 64
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 30%      IL ~  30%       KY ~  30%          TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation:
Winds: South and southwest at 10 to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.  Lightning.  Monitor the potential of heavy rain.  Monitor the potential of strong storms.
My confidence in the forecast verifyingLOW
Is severe weather expected?  Some storms could be intense.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:45 PM

 

May 4, 2018
Friday F
orecast Details
Forecast
: Partly sunny.  A little cooler.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 68 to 74      IL ~  68 to 74        KY ~ 68 to 74       TN ~  68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~ 0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Northwest at 6 to 12 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?  None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunrise: 5:56AM

 

Friday  Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.  Cooler.  Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures:  MO ~ 54 to 58       IL ~ 53 to 56       KY ~ 53 to 56        TN ~ 53 to 56
What is the chance of precipitation?  MO ~ 0%      IL ~  0%       KY ~  0%          TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:  None
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps patchy fog.
My confidence in the forecast verifying:  LOW
Is severe weather expected?  No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans?  No
Sunset: 7:46 PM

 

RAIN TOTALS

This is for the rest of today.  The main area to monitor is along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.

 

 

Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

 

Questions?  Broken links?  Other?

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a  tornado.

 

Thursday through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.

 

 

 

Interactive live weather radar page.  Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one.  Click here.

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center.  Click here.

Weather Prediction Center.  Click here.

 

 

Live lightning data: Click here.

 

 

Interactive GOES R satellite.  Track clouds.  Click here.

 

 

Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

 

 

The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers.  Scroll down to see the outlook.

Not a subscriber?  Learn more at this link.

 

Weather Headlines

  • Rain chances today
  • A weak cold front passes through the region tonight
  • Dry weather Friday through Tuesday
  • Chilly Friday and Saturday night
  • A few spots may dip into the upper 30’s Saturday night
  • Warmer conditions next week

 

Rain fell across a good chunk of the region last night.  The Paducah, KY NWS radar is still down for repairs.  I can’t post a map of totals.

Totals varied from 0″ to 0ver 0.65″.

I only received 0.04″ at the Weather Observatory in Massac County.

The heaviest totals were over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

The system that produced our rain will linger near the region into this afternoon.  That will mean a few morning showers.  The best chance of rain this morning into this afternoon will be along the Kentucky and Tennessee border.

Elsewhere, a few scattered showers are anticipated.

We may see some clearing as we move into the afternoon hours.

Here is the future-cast radar for today from the Hrrr model.  You can see the showers, especially near the Kentucky and Tennessee State line.

The timestamp is located in the upper left part of the animation.

Click to enlarge.

 

 

No severe weather in the forecast through Tuesday.

A weak cold front will move through the region tonight and Friday.  A few clouds are anticipated with the front tonight and maybe a sprinkle.  Not anticipating organized precipitation.

Temperatures will remain in the 60’s today, tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday.  We were forecasting 70’s by Sunday but now it appears 60’s will be the general rule.

Lows Friday and Saturday night will dip into the 40’s.  Upper 30’s are possible Saturday night (esp our northern counties along I64).  Light frost could occur if that happens.  Again, that will be our northern counties.

You can expect 70’s by Monday and 70’s to perhaps some 80’s by Tuesday into Friday.

 

Check out these high temperatures

Tuesday

 

 

Wednesday

 

 

Thursday

 

 

Friday

 

 

I am monitoring thunderstorm chances towards the middle and end of next week.  Some of the storms could be heavy.

Stay tuned.

Here is the analog severe weather forecast graphics.  Analogs look at past weather events and compare to current weather model data.  They attempt to figure out if a pattern might repeat.

This is for May 2nd and 3rd.  Some signals near us.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

 

 

This next one is for May 3rd and 4th.  Again, some signals near our region.  Let’s keep an eye on it.

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!

Weather Brains episode number 640

Tonight’s WeatherBrain is the Emergency Response Meteorologist for the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters, Jennifer McNatt. Also joining us is Elinor Lutu-McMoore, the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS office in Pago Pago, American Samoa.

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:

  • Extremes: 103 at Thermal, CA, & Death Valley, CA, and 15 at Estcourt Station, ME
  • Kevin checks out phased-array radar prototype
  • Discussion on issue of differing graphics from different weather agencies
  • Gulf coast tornadoes on 4/22
  • Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
  • and more!

Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.

 

 

 


We offer interactive local city live radars and regional radars.   If a radar does not update then try another one.  If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5.  You may also try restarting your browser.

The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.

During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.

You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

 

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2016-11-19_11-50-24

 

Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?

You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.

I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging.  We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather.  The app typically will receive the messages instantly.  I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.

Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated.  You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.

 

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