This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Breezy. Partly cloudy. Mild. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 58 to 64 IL ~ 58 to 64 KY ~ 58 to 64 TN ~ 60 to 65
Winds: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 35 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None anticipated.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Most likely none
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 26, 2017
Wednesday Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. Scattered storms possible, mainly during the afternoon hours. Some storms could be strong late in the day. Breezy. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer if we have some sunshine.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 75 to 80 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 76 to 82
Winds: South at 8 to 16 mph with gusts to 25 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Downpours. Monitor severe weather risk late in the day.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Some intense storms possible late in the afternoon.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous (mainly during the afternoon hours)
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars
Sunrise will be at 6:04 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:39 p.m.
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few strong storms possible. Locally heavy downpours (esp over Missouri and Illinois).
Temperatures: MO ~ 52 to 56 IL ~ 52 to 56 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: South and southwest becoming west and northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High. This forecast should verify.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. A few storms could be intense.
Is severe weather expected? Perhaps isolated severe reports for southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Small risk elsewhere.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 90% IL ~ 90% KY ~ 80% TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
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April 27, 2017
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly cloudy. A morning shower possible. Cooler. Less humid.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
Winds: West and northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph. Winds becoming south during the afternoon hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Perhaps some wet roadways before 10 am.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise will be at 6:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:40 p.m.
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy. A 30% chance for thunderstorms after 1 am.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 15 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Scattered late night storms possible. Best chance would be southeast Missouri.
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to scattered late at night.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
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April 28, 2017
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Thunderstorms possible. Warm.
Temperatures: MO ~ 75 to 80 IL ~ 74 to 78 KY ~ 75 to 80 TN ~ 75 to 80
Winds: East and southeast winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium. Some adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Greatest coverage may remain over Missouri and Illinois.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates
Sunrise will be at 6:02 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:41 p.m.
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Locally heavy downpours possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 62 to 66 IL ~ 62 to 66 KY ~ 62 to 66 TN ~ 62 to 66
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updated forecasts. Some storms are possible Friday night.
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April 29, 2017
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. A 50% for morning showers and thunderstorms. A 40% for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Mild. Breezy, at times.
Temperatures: MO ~ 76 to 82 IL ~ 76 to 82 KY ~ 76 to 82 TN ~ 76 yo 82
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% IL ~ 50% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunrise will be at 6:00 a.m. and sunset will be at 7:42 p.m.
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Warm. A shower or thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 70 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
Winds: South winds at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Low. Significant adjustments are possible.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Lightning. Gusty winds. Wet roadways.
Is severe weather expected? Not at this time, but monitor updates.
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph winds or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 60% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts.
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Showers and thunderstorms are possible Sunday and Sunday night. Locally heavy rain possible.
Bus stop forecast
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming day
Severe thunderstorm outlook.
Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 60 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday night: A small ( <15% ) risk for a thunderstorm late at night over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Lightning would be the primary concern. Most of the region will remain dry. The chance for storms is less than 15%.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Scattered to numerous storms will develop Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will increase in intensity and coverage on Wednesday night. Some of the storms could produce high winds and hail. Frequent lightning, as well. Heavy rain likely. There is a risk for a few severe thunderstorms on Wednesday night. The greatest risk will be over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out. Monitor updates.
Storms will weaken Wednesday night as they push further eastward.
There is an 80% for a severe thunderstorm or tornado watch being issued for portions of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois on Wednesday afternoon and evening.
There is a 50% for a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
There is a 30% for a tornado or severe thunderstorm watch for the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky (eastern counties of our area).
Thursday and Thursday night: Dry Thursday, but perhaps a storm after 2 am on Thursday night/Friday morning.
Friday into Saturday night: A warm front will pass through the region. Some thunderstorms are possible. I can’t rule out strong storms. Locally heavy rain and lightning will be the main concern.
The greatest coverage on Friday might remain over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Area-wide showers and storms are possible late Friday night into Saturday night. On and off chances. If you have outdoor plans, keep that in mind.
Sunday into Monday: Scattered storms are possible on Sunday. Lightning would be the main concern. We will need to monitor the severe risk on Sunday afternoon, as well.
Heavy rain totals will be a concern over the next seven to ten days.
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Weather analysis for the next few days:
The main weather story over the coming days will be increasing chances for showers and heavy thunderstorms.
A cold front will move towards the region on Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Showers and storms will form along and ahead of the cold front. Some of the storms could become severe. The greatest risk for severe weather will be over southeast Missouri into southwest Illinois. Lesser chances as you push eastward.
The main concern will be a few reports of large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado is also possible. Lightning and heavy rain, as well.
CAPE is lacking. If the NAM CAPE numbers verify then there is not a tremendous amount of energy to work with. Wind fields are strong. That could make up the difference for the lack of CAPE.
There are some parameters available for bow echoes. A bow is when storms bow outward. When storms bow outward you have a greater risk for damaging winds.
CAPE is a measure of instability. Forecasters use it to monitor severe potential.
Here is what the NAM is showing for Wednesday
10 AM CAPE
1 PM CAPE
and 4 PM CAPE
Lift index values are decent. Another measure of instability.
4 PM Lift index values
7 PM Lift index values
The bottom line is that a few severe storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.
If bow echoes occur then damaging wind threat will increase.
The line of storms will push eastward Wednesday evening and night. As the storms enter southeast Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee, they should start to decrease in intensity. The severe weather risk is greatest over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois.
Here is the official Storm Prediction Center severe weather outlook probabilities
The red hatched area is where the greatest risk for severe weather will be placed. This map may still need adjusting as more data becomes available and we draw closer to the time frame in question. Keep that in mind.
Red zone is greatest risk. Yellow zone is a step below the red. Brown is a step below the yellow shaded area.
Again, this may be adjusted moving forward.
Future-cast radar from the NAM guidance
This is what radar might look like on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. It won’t be exact. Take the generalities from these images and not the specifics.
4 PM Wednesday future-cast radar
7 PM Wednesday future-cast radar
10 PM Future-cast radar
1 AM Future-cast radar
You can see how the line weakens as it pushes further and further east. The instability levels won’t be as great over the eastern half of the region vs the western half of the region.
Heavy rain is a concern as thunderstorm chances return as early as late Thursday night into Friday. On and off thunderstorm chances will be with us on Friday, Saturday, Sunday, and Sunday night. Heavy rain is definitely a concern. Some locations will easily pick up one to three inches of rain with pockets of greater than four inches. Some of the guidance paints totals in excess of five inches.
Heaviest totals will likely be over Missouri and Illinois. See maps below.
It is possible that the bulk of the Friday activity will remain over Missouri and Illinois. Perhaps centered west vs east in our region.
Future-cast radar from the NAM guidance shows this nicely
7 AM Friday. Future-cast precipitation map.
10 AM Friday
4 PM Friday
I am not overly confident on the timing and placement of showers and storms Friday into Saturday night. This will need to be monitored. See the day by day forecast at the top of the page for details.
Here is the GFS rainfall forecast. It has been signaling heavy rain for awhile.
This won’t be exact, but take the generalities from this graphic. Some heavy rain totals are likely into this weekend.
This is the Tuesday morning GFS rainfall total forecast. Let’s compare it with the previous run of the GFS model. The model is run four times each day.
This includes rain from now through Monday morning.
Tuesday morning updated graphic
And here is the previous update from that same model. Notice how it keeps the idea of heavy rain, but shifts the placement around.
Here is the latest NOAA rainfall forecast for the next seven days.
Click images to enlarge
MO IL view
KY TN view
EC guidance shows very heavy rain over the coming seven days. GFS has even higher totals. This needs to be monitored.
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not update then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
During the winter you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
Interactive Weather Radar Page. Choose the city nearest your location: Click this link—
National interactive radar: Click this link.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky. These are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
Regional Radar
The official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA)
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
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Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 39 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology and a Bachelor’s of Science.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Rescue. 2015 through current
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
I am the chief meteorologist for Weather Talk LLC. I am the owner of Weather Talk LLC.
I am also a business owner in western Kentucky.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2005 I helped open the largest American Cross shelter in U.S. history in Houston, Texas. I was deployed to help after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita. I was a shelter manager of one of the Houston, Texas shelter divisions.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, email, texts, and this blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on some television stations or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
Many of the graphics on this page are from www.weatherbell.com
WeatherBell is a great resource for weather model guidance.
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