April 25, 2019: Non-subscribers update.

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Today: Lightning will be possible.
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Tomorrow: No

Showers and thunderstorms today. Locally heavy rain is possible.
Friday should be dry for most of the area. Small shower chances over our eastern counties (Evansville, Indiana south to Trigg County, Kentucky and then eastward.
Gusty winds on Friday.
A few showers Saturday over our northern counties (closer to Mt Vernon). Slight chance of showers area-wide on Saturday night. Any precip that occurs will be light (less than 0.10″).
Active long range pattern. Several chances of rain. Locally heavy rain is likely.

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Today through Saturday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible today, this evening, and isolated on Saturday (mainly northern counties. That would be Perryville, MO northeast to Mt. Vernon, IL. Mainly along and north of that line.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Possible. Avoid flooded roadways. Locally heavy rain could cause issues. This is especially true in areas that received heavy rain yesterday.

Sunday through Wednesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Some lightning will be possible next week. Several chances of showers and thunderstorms. An active pattern is possible over the next few weeks.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Monitor updates.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? Monitor updates.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 24, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast:

Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could produce heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 80% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 90% Western KY 90% NW TN 100%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Small risk of a severe thunderstorm with quarter size hail and gusty winds. Low tornado risk.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low to medium
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: N NW 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds increasing overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Greatest coverage will be before midnight. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars during the evening hours. Some rain is possible early in the night. Ending overnight.
Sunset: 7:39 PM
Moonrise: 1:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:01 AM

April 26, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Windy, at times. A slight chance of a few showers.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 68° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty winds.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 68° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 High
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Breezy, at times. Increasing wind overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (90% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 44° to 48° NW TN 46° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none. I will monitor fog chances.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM

April 27, 2019
Saturday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. Cooler. Windy. A chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The greatest risk will be across northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. That would be from Perry County, MO northeast towards Franklin County, IL and then north/northeast from there. Lesser chances south of that line.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 66° to 70° SE MO 64° to 68° South IL 64° to 68° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 64° to 68° West KY 66° to 70° NW TN 66° to 70°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 10 to 20 mph with higher gusts likely.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 68°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 20% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 20% NW TN 10%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 3 to 5 (cloud cover in some areas will keep it lower). Low to moderate.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
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Saturday night Forecast: Clearing. Cool. Rain should be over by Saturday night.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° SE MO 44° to 48° South IL 44° to 48° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 48° West KY 46° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: SW to W at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 42° to 48°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:41 PM
Moonrise: 2:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Last Quarter
Moonset: 12:51 PM

Sunday: Medium confidence. Quite a bit of sun. High temperatures in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the 46 to 52-degree range. Northerly winds at 6 to 12 mph.

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The rain probabilities will likely need to be increased. The details of rain next week are still being worked out. Monitor updates.

Monday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 30% chance at night. High temperatures in the lower 70’s north to near 80 near the KY/TN border. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southeast wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

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Tuesday: Medium confidence. A mix of sun and clouds. Warm. A 30% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 40% chance at night. High temperatures in the upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southeast wind 10 to 20 mph and gusty.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Scattered lightning is possible into Thursday evening. A few storms could produce heavy downpours and pea size hail. The risk of severe weather today is not zero. It is not all that great, either. A small chance of quarter size hail and high winds with storms. The tornado risk is low.

Saturday through Thursday: I can’t rule out severe storms next week. Isolated lightning is possible on Saturday and again on late Sunday night/Monday/Monday night. I am monitoring Tuesday and Wednesday for additional thunderstorms. Monitor updates. The timing of the upper-level disturbances will need to be monitored next week.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Showers and thunderstorms are likely Thursday and Thursday night. Ending west to east.
Mostly dry on Friday. Small shower chances.
The weekend outlook.
Active weather pattern likely next week and the following week. Multiple chances of rain. Heavy rain is possible.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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No major adjustments.

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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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There will be some lightning.

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Forecast discussion.

Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Forecast

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The summer forecast has been updated. Scroll down further for numerous graphics.

The May outlook has been updated. Potentially, wet.

May temperature and precipitation outlook update.

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Today through the weekend.

We have an active weather pattern underway. This pattern will continue over the coming fourteen days.

Some areas received over two inches of rain yesterday. Some received no rain. The heaviest rain fell across portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois.

This graphic shows you some of the radar indicated amounts. Williamson County, Illinois had some flooded roadways. Radar did show isolated three-inch amounts. Gully-washers.

Click the image to enlarge.

The same front that produced yesterdays heavy rain remains draped across our region today. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur.

Some of the rain will be heavy today and a few spots will likely top an inch of rain.

The atmosphere is not primed for severe weather. CAPE (a measure of energy) will be hard to come by. With that said, any thunderstorms that do develop could produce small hail and gusty winds.

Occasionally, short-lived tornadoes can occur near boundaries. That seems unlikely today but I will be monitoring radar. Yesterday, a few thunderstorms had some spin. There were no actual reports of tornadoes.

There were some severe thunderstorm warnings yesterday. No actual severe weather was reported in most of the warnings. The only severe report was from Olive Branch, Illinois, where quarter size hail was reported. The atmosphere wasn’t all that conducive for severe weather. It was marginal.

The shower and thunderstorm activity will come to an end tonight. The precip will end west to east. See the future-cast radars below.

Friday should be mostly dry. The guidance indicates a few light showers are possible over mainly our eastern counties. That would include southeast Illinois and western Kentucky. Mainly to the east of the Ohio River. Any rain that develops on Friday will be light and many will remain dry.

A weak cold front passes through the region on Saturday and Saturday night. A few light showers are possible with it, as well. The atmosphere will be fairly dry aloft. I did include slight chances of showers and storms. I would not cancel any events outside. I would monitor updates and radars.

Sunday should be dry.

Long Range

Sunday night into Wednesday

A series of precipitation makers will push their way into our region beginning Sunday night and lasting into at least Wednesday.

The GFS model guidance is very active over the next couple of weeks with round after round of showers and thunderstorms.

Heavy rain and some severe weather will be a concern.

I am still working out the details on what time-frame has the best chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Plan on at least a chance of precipitation beginning Sunday night and then lasting into mid-week.

The guidance indicates several inches of rain over the next two weeks in our region.

If this front becomes stationary across my forecast counties then some areas could exceed three or four inches of rain.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Remember, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

Here is the Hrrr short-range model.
Time-stamp upper left.

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Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model. You can see how it handles tomorrow’s rain chances.

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Here is the GFS future-cast radar. GFS is another model.

The GFS model is a lower resolution model. It can show activity a bit more widespread than it will be.

Notice how active the GFS long-range is. Several chances of rain (if it is correct).

Time-stamp upper left.

Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

Hope this is wrong. It is the long range. Still time for adjustments. We don’t need a lot of rain.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: