Afternoon update
Increased rain chances over southern Illinois tonight, as well.
Future-cast radar shows you the rain coverage tonight. Quite a bit of rain in the region.
Timestamp upper left.
2018 Teddy Bear Fund Raiser Campaign!
We are about $400 short for our fundraiser. Please consider donating $5 or $10. Much appreciated!
The Shadow Angel Foundation is raising money for new teddy bears to be donated to Child Watch and PASAC of western Kentucky. This is our 15th year of donating new bears to these two organizations.
This is a matching fundraiser. That means your donation is doubled.
If you would like to help then follow this link
April 18, 2018
The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.
An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.
During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).
The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
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- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
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Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
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I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
April 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning sun and patchy fog. Increasing clouds through the day. Rain increasingly likely during the afternoon across southeast Missouri extreme southwest Illinois and far western Kentucky. A rumble of thunder possible. A few showers elsewhere but less likely. The greatest rain chances will be later in the afternoon. The morning will remain dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% near Poplar Bluff, 60% near Cape Girardeau, tapering to 50% near Perry County, Missouri IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% far western seven counties tapering to 10% near Owensboro TN ~ 70% late in the day (lower chances earlier in the day)
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to none northeast counties. Becoming numerous over southeast Missouri and portions of southwest Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No during the morning. Be prepared for some rain over the southwest half of the region during the afternoon.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Rain chances will be less as you travel towards Carmi, IL and then southeast towards Owensboro. Greater coverage the southwestern two thirds of the region vs far northeastern part of the area.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 52 TN ~ 48 to 52
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 80% IL ~ 60% KY ~ 70% far western Kentucky tapering to 30% near Owensboro, KY. TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated far northern and northeastern counties increasing to numerous over far southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee.
Winds: North to northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and be prepared for rain showers over the southwest half of the region.
Sunset: 7:38 PM
April 26, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds. Becoming partly sunny as the day wears on. Rain showers possible across southeast Missouri into western Kentucky and Tennessee. Lesser rain chances north and east of there. A small chance of lightning. Rain chances will be greatest during the morning hours. Rain chances decrease as we move later in the day.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 50% over the Bootheel decreasing to 10% over Perry County, MO IL ~ 40% extreme southern Illinois decreasing to 10% near Mt Vernon KY ~ 60% near the KY/TN State line decreasing to 10% near Owensboro TN ~ 70% early decreasing to 40% late in the day.
Coverage of precipitation: None far north and northeast increasing to scattered/numerous from the Bootheel of MO and then along the KY/TN border
Winds: North and northeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? West roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars for potential showers.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Increasing clouds overnight. Most likely dry.
Temperatures: MO ~ 43 to 46 IL ~ 43 to 46 KY ~ 44 to 48 TN ~ 44 to 48
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:39 PM
April 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: Partly sunny. Isolated rain shower or sprinkle possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: West and northwest becoming north and northwest at 8 to 16 mph. Gusty wind, at times.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. A slight chance of a shower before 8 PM. Becoming mostly clear. Colder. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
April 28, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: West and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 45 TN ~ 42 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Variable 4 to 8 mph. Wind becoming east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
April 29, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 46 to 50 IL ~ 46 to 50 KY ~ 46 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: East and southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:41 PM
April 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Southeast at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Otherwise, clear sky conditions and mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:42 PM
RAIN TOTALS
This is the 48-hour rainfall forecast.
There are four different rainfall maps. The first one is from NOAA and the other three are from models. You get the general idea from these graphics. There will be a sharp cutoff in totals from southwest to northeast. Portions of the region may receive no measurable rain from this event today through Thursday. That would most likely be near Mt. Vernon, IL, and then towards Owensboro, KY.
Here is the NOAA/WPC rainfall forecast. You can see there is a cutoff in the rain totals from southwest to northeast.
Click image to enlarge.
This is the Hrrr model guidance through 7 AM Thursday
Click image to enlarge
This is the NAM model guidance rainfall totals
GFS model guidance
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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Wednesday through Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated lightning today and tonight/Thursday morning. Low risk of lightning.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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Weather Headlines
- Morning sunshine and patchy fog
- Rain chances increase later today.
- A few rain showers possible Thursday (morning)
- Monitoring rain chances Thursday night and Friday. Low-end chances.
- Dry weather Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.
- 80’s possible by Tuesday
It seems we can’t shake our rain chances. A system will pass through Missouri and Arkansas today and tonight. This system will spread rain into our local region later this afternoon. The rain will first arrive near Poplar Bluff and then spread east/southeast.
There will be a bit of a cut-off in the rain chances as you move northeast of Marion, Illinois into northwest Kentucky. As a matter of fact, some areas may remain dry through this event. The further north and northeast you travel the greater the chance of little or no rainfall.
The highest rain chances today and tonight will be across southeast Missouri, southwest Illinois, far western Kentucky, and western Tennessee. I can’t completely rule out a few reports of lightning. Severe weather is not a concern.
For the most part, the rain will be light. A few moderate showers are possible. Rain totals will range from 0.00″ to 0.40″. A few pockets of heavier totals are possible over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee.
Rain chances will diminish as we move through Thursday. The best chance of rain on Thursday will be from the Missouri Bootheel into western Kentucky and Tennessee. The further south you travel the better the chance of rain Thursday.
Here is the future-cast radar from the Hrrr model guidance. The timestamp is located in the upper left part of the animation.
Here is the NAM 3K future-cast radar (different model)
Click to enlarge
Thursday night into the weekend
Another fast moving system may deliver a couple of showers late Thursday night and Friday. The guidance has been trending less and less with this rain event. Many guidance packages bring the system through our region dry. We need some dry weather.
Rain chances will be kept at 10% to 20% during this time frame. Again, models are trending drier.
Dry conditions are likely Friday night, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. A warming trend as well. Temperatures may reach or rise above 70 degrees Sunday afternoon and Monday.
Cool conditions are anticipated at night. Lows Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and Sunday night will likely dip into the 40’s. A few upper 30’s are possible over our far northern counties.
Friday and Saturday night will likely be the coldest night (lows in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s). Sunday night will be the mildest (lows around 48 to 52 degrees).
Severe weather is not anticipated today through Monday. That is good news.
High temperatures by Tuesday should reach into the upper 70’s to middle 80’s. Finally.
Check out these high temperatures
Sunday in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s.
Monday in the 70’s.
Tuesday
Wednesday
Thursday
Friday
I am watching thunderstorm chances towards the middle and end of next week. A front may stall to our west. Heavy rain would be the end result.
For now, the models show this more to the west of my forecast counties.
Stay tuned.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 640
Tonight’s WeatherBrain is the Emergency Response Meteorologist for the National Weather Service Southern Region Headquarters, Jennifer McNatt. Also joining us is Elinor Lutu-McMoore, the Meteorologist in Charge at the NWS office in Pago Pago, American Samoa.
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 103 at Thermal, CA, & Death Valley, CA, and 15 at Estcourt Station, ME
- Kevin checks out phased-array radar prototype
- Discussion on issue of differing graphics from different weather agencies
- Gulf coast tornadoes on 4/22
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
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Did you know that a portion of your monthly subscription helps support local charity projects?
You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
