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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Quite a few clouds. Very warm. A less than 10% chance for a thunderstorm over northwest parts of the area (northern southeast Missouri).
Temperatures: High temperatures 80-85
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated, if any.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. An isolated scattered thunderstorm possible towards Poplar Bluff and then northeast towards Mt Vernon. Low chances, overall.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds South at 10 mph with gusts 25
What is the chance for precipitation? <20%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated (if any at all)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none. Small risk for lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible. If a storm forms then it would be heavy. A few storms seem likely on Tuesday. Especially over the northern parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 80s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph. Gusts to 20 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%.
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered showers and storms are possible on Tuesday. Especially over the northern parts of southeast Missouri into southern Illinois and northwest Kentucky.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but keep in mind that some storms may form.
Is severe weather expected? If a storm forms then it could be intense. Isolated severe thunderstorm risk.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, and even hail will be possible. Heavy downpours.
Tuesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40% A few storms will likely to occur, but most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous. Especially northern half of the region (north of the Ohio River).
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium to high
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? The atmosphere will be unstable on Tuesday night. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps a few strong storms.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 50%-60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 78 to 82 (cloud cover could keep temps down a bit. More sun and it will be warmer)
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Strong winds near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 50%-60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B for backup.
Is severe weather expected? Some storms could become severe.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty winds. Strong storms possible. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Mostly Cloudy. A 60%-70% chance for showers and thunderstorms before 2 am. Then a 40% chance after 2 am.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%-70%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous (especially before 2 am)
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Strong storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Isolated wet roadways and lightning. Otherwise, none.
Thursday Night – Partly Cloudy. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50s
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy fog. Otherwise, none.
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: Northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Friday Night – Increasing clouds. A 30% chance for thunderstorms after 2 am
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday – A good chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning, locally heavy rain. Strong storms possible.
Saturday Night – Cloudy. A chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B
Is severe weather expected? Monitor updates
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Monitor updates.
Sunday – Showers and thunderstorms ending. Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: West at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered and ending
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy and cooler. Patchy fog possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds north and northwest winds at 10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Patchy fog.
Monday – Patchy morning fog possible. Mostly sunny, otherwise.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 70s
Winds: North at 10 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Maybe patchy morning fog
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Warm on Monday! Nice day.
- Increasing chances for storms
- Severe weather?
Wow, what a BEAUTIFUL SUNDAY! Did I always say 🙂 wow! I hope you were able to enjoy it. I did!
A complicated, messy, tricky, and headache making forecast week ahead of us. We have numerous on and off chances for thunderstorm development. Let’s dig right into it.
This will be springs first full week of warm weather. And, the first week that we will have to deal with heavier thunderstorm chances.
The main weather story for the upcoming week will be thunderstorms. Some of the storms could be on the intense side. But, as is typically the case, there remain questions on specifics. Let me try and break it down day by day.
Monday will be warm. There is only a very slight risk for a thunderstorm on Monday (less than 10% chance). There is not a trigger for storms on Monday. Even though the atmosphere will become increasingly unstable. Without lift you are not going to see much in the way of activity. If a storm were to pop up on Monday then it would most likely be towards Farminton, Missouri vs Paducah, Kentucky. In other words our north and northwest counties in the region. But, odds favor most areas remaining dry.
On Monday night the atmosphere will experience a bit more lift. Isolated or scattered thunderstorms can’t be ruled out. Not everyone will experience storms on Monday night. As a matter of fact, most areas will not.
On Tuesday the atmosphere will become very unstable. CAPE values in excess of 3000 and lift index values of -5 to -10. Those are big numbers. But, thankfully we will not have a lot of lift in the atmosphere. The lack of an organized trigger means that any storms that form should be scattered, at best. But, if a thunderstorm does form on Tuesday then it could produce strong winds and hail. Frequent lightning, as well.
There will be a CAP on the atmosphere the first half of Tuesday. A CAP is basically warm air aloft. This keeps air parcels from lifting. The CAP erodes during the afternoon hours.
What are CAPE values and what do they mean in relation to severe weather? I found a great post about CAPE values and this should explain it. For you go-getter weather enthusiasts – click here
A warm front and a cold front approaches the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. These are triggers. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase during this time period. The atmosphere will be unstable. A few storms could become severe. The main concern would be strong winds and perhaps hail. Tornado risk isn’t zero. Tornado risk may not be all that great. Monitor updates, as always. Severe weather forecasts typically are low confidence until 12-18 hours before an event. Meaning, the finer details won’t be known for awhile.
There still remains some question on just how widespread precipitation will or won’t be on Wednesday and Wednesday night. Monitor updates.
Thunderstorm chances will continue on Wednesday night. Then, a cold front will push through the area.
Both Thursday and Friday should be mostly dry. Perhaps small chances for thunderstorms (less than 20% risk)
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again on Friday night into Saturday night. This, as another area of low pressure pulls out of the west/southwest and pushes into our region. This will provide another trigger for widespread precipitation. Some of the storms could once again become strong/heavy.
Rainfall totals could be quite high this week. Especially true where thunderstorms move over the same areas. Widespread 1-3″ of rain is expected for the seven day period ending next Sunday.
I would encourage everyone to monitor updates this week. A few severe storms can’t be ruled out.
You can click any of these graphics for a larger view.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Monday – Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated chance for a thunderstorm.
Tuesday into Tuesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates. If thunderstorms form on Tuesday they could be intense. But, there will be a lid on the atmosphere. Coverage is questionable, at best. But, if a storm forms it would be intense.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates. Severe weather will be possible.
Wednesday night: Thunderstorms possible. Severe weather will be possible.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates
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I updated the probabilities for storms each day. Otherwise, no major chances.
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The main concern will be thunderstorm chances over the upcoming week. And, some of the storms could be strong/severe. Monitor updates each day. There are a lot of moving parts to the forecast. That means adjustments on the timing of thunderstorms could change.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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This is the 7 day precipitation outlook. Some showers and heavy thunderstorms are possible on and off this week into next weekend. This is a broad-brushed outlook. And, totals will have wide ranges. Keep that in mind.
Thunderstorms can always produce higher totals.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
