April 24, 2024: Monitoring thunderstorm chances as we move deeper into the week. Warming trend.

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Seven Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast? YES. Lightning is possible Thursday/Thursday night. Lightning is likely Friday into Monday.

2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? YES. Thunderstorms could become severe this weekend. There is a low-end risk Friday and Friday night. Mainly over southeast Missouri and perhaps southwest Illinois. I am watching Sunday into Sunday night. Monitor updates.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph? MONITOR. Windy conditions are possible this weekend. Monitor updates. Winds above 30 mph are likely. Whether we go about 40 mph is still a question.

5. Will the heat index exceed 100 degrees? NO.

6. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees? NO.

7. Is measurable snow and/or sleet in the forecast? NO.

8. Is freezing rain/ice in the forecast? NO.
Freezing rain is rain that falls and instantly freezes on objects such as trees and power lines Freezing fog possible, as well.

Fire weather risk level.

Wednesday through Wednesday night: 4. Low risk.
Thursday: 5. Medium risk.
Thursday night: 5. Medium risk.

Fire Weather Discussion

High pressure will build across the area today as a cold front departs to the south and east of the Quad State. This will allow for seasonally dry weather through mid week; however, moisture will gradually return to the area on south winds. A week ending warmup is expected to result in a stormier pattern emergence that continues through early next week. Strong storms will be possible Friday night and again Sunday night.

A Haines Index of 6 means a high potential for an existing fire to become large or exhibit erratic fire behavior, 5 means medium potential, 4 means low potential, and anything less than 4 means very low potential.

THE FORECAST IS GOING TO VARY FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION.

Scroll down to see your local forecast details.

Seven-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.

This is a BLEND for the region. Scroll down to see the region by region forecast.

48-hour forecast Graphics

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Today’s Local Almanacs (for a few select cities). Your location will be comparable.

Note, the low is this morning’s low and not tomorrows.

The forecast temperature shows you today’s expected high and this morning’s low.

The graphic shows you the record high and record low for today. It shows you what year that occurred, as well.

It then shows you what today’s average temperature is.

It shows you the departures (how may degrees above or below average temperatures will be ).

It shows you the average precipitation for today. Average comes from thirty years of rain totals.

It also shows you the record rainfall for the date and what year that occurred.

The sunrise and sunset are also shown.

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Wednesday Forecast: Patchy AM fog will mix out quickly after sunrise. Becoming mostly sunny.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
Southeast Missouri ~ 66° to 70°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 66° to 70°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Southern Illinois ~ 66° to 70°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 66° to 70°
Far western Kentucky ~ 66° to 70°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 66° to 70°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 66° to 70°
Winds will be from this direction: North northwest 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 70°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Wednesday Night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 0%
Southeast Missouri ~ 0%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 0%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 0%
Southern Illinois ~ 0%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 0%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 0%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation:
Timing of the precipitation:
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
Southeast Missouri ~ 40° to 44°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 44° to 48°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40° to 42°
Southern Illinois ~ 40° to 44°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 44° to 46°
Far western Kentucky ~ 44° to 46°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 44° to 48°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 42° to 45°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 48° to 52°
Winds will be from this direction: East northeast 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather?
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:42 PM
Moonset: 6:17 AM
The phase of the moon: Full

Thursday Forecast: Increasing clouds. A small chance of showers and thunderstorms over southeast Missouri ands southwest Illinois.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 10%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 10%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 0%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 0%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated
Timing of the precipitation: After 10 am
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
Southeast Missouri ~ 70° to 74°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 70° to 74°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Southern Illinois ~ 70° to 74°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 70° to 74°
Far western Kentucky ~ 70° to 74°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 70° to 74°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 70° to 74°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 8 to 16 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Thursday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
Southeast Missouri ~ 52° to 55°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 53° to 56°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Southern Illinois ~ 52° to 55°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 53° to 56°
Far western Kentucky ~ 53° to 56°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 53° to 56°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~53° to 56°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 53° to 56°
Winds will be from this direction: Southeast 7 to 14 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 50° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 9:47 PM
Moonset: 6:47 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Friday Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 60%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 60%
Southern Illinois ~ 40%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
Southeast Missouri ~ 76° to 80°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 76° to 80°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Southern Illinois ~ 76° to 80°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 76° to 80°
Far western Kentucky ~ 76° to 80°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 76° to 80°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 76° to 80°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Friday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?

Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 70%
Southeast Missouri ~ 70%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 60%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 70%
Southern Illinois ~ 60%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 40%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 40%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 40%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 40%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 40%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 10:52 PM
Moonset: 7:22 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

Saturday Forecast: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 40%
Southeast Missouri ~ 40%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 40%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 40%
Southern Illinois ~ 30%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 30%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 30%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 30%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 30%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
Southeast Missouri ~ 80° to 82°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 80° to 82°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Southern Illinois ~ 80° to 82°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 80° to 82°
Far western Kentucky ~ 80° to 82°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 80° to 82°
Northwest Tennessee ~80° to 82°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 35 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Monitor the risk of severe weather.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:42 PM
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Saturday Night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation?
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 30%
Southeast Missouri ~ 30%
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 30%
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 20%
Southern Illinois ~ 20%
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 20%
Far western Kentucky (Purchase area) ~ 20%
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 20%
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 20%
Northwest Tennessee ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the precipitation: Any given point of time
Temperature range:
Far northern southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
Southeast Missouri ~ 63° to 66°
The Missouri Bootheel ~ 63° to 66°
I-64 Corridor of southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Southern Illinois ~ 63° to 66°
Extreme southern Illinois (southern seven counties) ~ 63° to 66°
Far western Kentucky ~ 63° to 66°
The Pennyrile area of western KY ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Kentucky (near Indiana border) ~ 63° to 66°
Northwest Tennessee ~ 63° to 66°
Winds will be from this direction: South 10 to 30 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 63° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor the Beau Dodson Weather Radars
Moonrise: 11:55 PM
Moonset: 8:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous

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Weather Highlights and Forecast Discussion

1. Warming trend into the weekend.
2. Increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
3. Increasingly more humid this weekend.

Weather advice:

Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways.

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Beau’s Forecast Discussion

The weather will become a bit more unsettled over the coming days.

First, we have some patchy fog in the region this morning. That will mix out over the next hour or two. Dry conditions today and tonight.

We did have some rain showers lightning. A few rumbles of thunder. Rain totals of 0.01″ to 0.30″ were reported in the region. Not much.

Those rain showers have pushed off to the east southeast. Leaving us with patchy fog and sunshine.

No weather concerns today through Thursday morning.

A system will approach the region Thursday.

Thursday will deliver increasing clouds. A small chance of showers and thunderstorms. The chance of showers will be slightly higher over southeast Missouri. Nothing major. See the top of the page for the precipitation probability graphics.

We are going to see increasing shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday night inti Friday night. Scattered thunderstorms Saturday. A lull Saturday night with isolated showers and thunderstorms.

A stronger cold front will approach the region Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. This will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms back to the area. A few of the storms could be locally intense.

The threat of severe weather is questionable, but it does appear we will have at least a low end chance of severe thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois Friday and Friday night. Then, a chance of severe weather area-wide Sunday and Sunday night.

I will monitor Monday. If the front pushes through fast enough, then thunderstorm chances will come to an end by Monday. If the front is a bit slower, then thunderstorms will linger. For now, I did keep a chance of precipitation in the Monday forecast.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois in the Friday/Friday night severe weather outlook. It is currently a level one threat. One is the lowest threat level on the Storm Prediction Center’s threat matrix. One is the lower and five is the highest.

The concern will be a few reports of high winds. At this time, the Friday outlook does not look all that impressive to me. I will keep an eye on it.

They have outlined our region for a threat of severe weather Sunday and Sunday night, as well. A bit early to know the threat level, but let’s keep an eye on it. Instability and wind shear will be a bit higher Sunday and Sunday night compared to other days. That equals a higher threat level.

Temperatures will be warming up over the coming days. The eighties are forecast to return to the region! It will feel more humid, as well. Dew points will be on the rise. Dew point is a measure of moisture in the atmosphere. Higher dew points feel muggier.

Monitor updates concerning the forecast over the coming days. Some unsettled weather is likely.

Rainfall totals will vary greatly. If a few thunderstorms move over your location then rain totals could be higher than shown on this graphic. Take the general idea from this graphic. It won’t be exact.

Double click on the graphic to enlarge it.

—-> I will be off work the first week of June.

I am taking my dad to Normandy, France for the 80th anniversary of D-Day. During that time, I will be away from the computer. Just a heads up!

My Great Uncle, Robert Dodson, was a meteorologist who parachuted in to forecast for D-Day and Operation Overlord. We are going over to commemorate the event.

Staff Sergeant Robert A. Dodson enlisted in the Army in August 1941 and trained as a weather observer at New Orleans Army Bomber Base in September 1941.

In April 1944, Sergeant Dodson was assigned to the 21st Weather Squadron in Ascot, England and a month later he volunteered jump school training. As his paperwork was being processed, the jump school was shut down in preparation for “D-Day”. Undaunted, Sergeant Dodson and his commanding officer convinced the 82nd Airborne Division, located at Manchester, England, to make room for one more soldier. Sergeant Dodson became a member of an Air Support Party from Ninth Air Force attached to Headquarters, 82nd Airborne Division, which consisted of an Officer in Charge, five communications men who acted as forward air controllers, a driver, and a weather observer, equipped with a half-track and a “veep” (radio equipped jeep). Sergeant Dodson received a minimum of mock-up training before making his first and only jump.

At 0230hrs on 6 June 1944, Sergeant Dodson jumped with Force “A” of the 82nd Airborne Division commanded by Brigadier General James M. Gavin. The sky was moonlit and practically clear when he landed about a mile northeast of St. Mere Eglise, France in a field where cattle were grazing. One other man had landed in the same field with him and the two of them set out at once toward the head of the stick, in spite of a knee injury Sergeant Dodson sustained during the jump. As they proceeded they picked up eight other members of their outfit one at a time. Things were progressing according to schedule and they had yet to make contact with the enemy. They found three injured men along the way, gave them first aid, and continued on. Along the way they recovered their equipment which they unpacked, selected a VHF radio, and camouflaged the rest of the equipment in a hedgerow before finally linking up with the command post which had relocated to St. Mere Eglise.

The Germans counterattacked, and during thirty-six hours all members of the Air Support Party acted as riflemen. When the siege was lifted, Sergeant Dodson began his weather observing duties. Each hour he sent by radio the present weather, wind direction and speed, visibility, ceiling and cloud heights, temperature, and dew point. For the last elements he was equipped with a shielded psychrometer and psychometric tables, while all other elements were determined visually. This work continued until 21 June, when Sergeant Dodson was evacuated to the hospital at Bouteville for treatment on the knee he injured during the jump. He later returned to his unit, which returned to England when it was relieved on 13 July. Sergeant Dodson, who made his first trip to France during the war with a parachute as a weather observer with the 82nd Airborne Division, returned to France with the headquarters of Ninth Air Force and the 21st Weather Squadron, serving out the rest of the war as chief dispatcher at the motor pool. He left the service in September 1945.

Sergeant Dodson’s military decorations include the Bronze Star Medal, Purple Heart, Europe-Africa-Middle East Campaign medal with 4 bronze service stars (for the Normandy, Northern France, Rhineland and Central Europe campaigns), American Defense Service Medal, and Distinguished Unit Citation. The Air Weather Service recognized Sergeant Dodson’s World War II service in July 1987 by naming its Specialized Support Award in his honor.

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This outlook covers southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and far northwest Tennessee.

Today’s Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) Severe Weather Outlook

Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.

Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.

One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.

A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter or larger size hail, and/or a tornado.

Explanation of tables. Click here.

Day One Severe Weather Outlook

Day One Severe Weather Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Tornado Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Tornado Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One Large Hail Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Hail Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day One High wind Probability Outlook

Day One Regional Wind Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook. Day two outlook.

Day Two Outlook. Zoomed in on our region.

Day Three Severe Weather Outlook

The images below are from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center.

24-hour precipitation outlook..
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.

What should I take from these?

The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.

What am I looking at?

You are looking at computer model data. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather.