April 24, 2019: Nonsubscribers update.

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Today: Lightning will be possible. Flooded roadways where storms train.
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Tomorrow: Lightning will be possible.

Shower and thunderstorm chances into Thursday evening. Dry Friday.
Uncertainty surrounds rain chances Saturday and Sunday. A weak system could spark a few showers and storms. For now, I kept rain chances low.
Gusty winds on Saturday.
Mild temperatures into the weekend. Mostly upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Nights will be cool.

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Today through Friday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lighting is possible into Thursday evening.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Isolated. Wednesday afternoon and Thursday. Low end severe risk.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? Yes. Isolated flash flooding possible. Torrential rain in some locations.

Saturday through Tuesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Monitor. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible over the weekend into early next week. Confidence in lightning is not all that great.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 24, 2019
## Torrential Rainfall in some counties **
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 66° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 74° to 78°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 50% NW TN 50%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain could flood some roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
UV Index: 3 to 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60 NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 50% to 60% Southeast MO 60% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 50% to 60% NW TN 50% to 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B and monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:09 AM

April 25, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. A few storms could produce heavy rain.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 70% Southeast MO 70% IL 70% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 70% Western KY 70% NW TN 70%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy rain could flood some roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 2 to 3 Low to medium
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending west to east overnight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 52° to 54° SE MO 48° to 54° South IL 48° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 54° West KY 50° to 52° NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: N NW 10 to 20 mph and gusty. Winds increasing overnight.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% Southern IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Greatest coverage will be before midnight. Ending west to east.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars during the evening hours. Some rain is possible early in the night. Ending overnight.
Sunset: 7:39 PM
Moonrise: 1:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:01 AM

April 26, 2019
Friday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Windy, at times. A slight chance of a morning shower along and east of a line from Evansville, Indiana, south to Trigg County, Kentucky.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 73° to 76° SE MO 70° to 74° South IL 70° to 74° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 72° to 74° West KY 72° to 74° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 70° to 74°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 7 High
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool. Patchy fog is possible.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (70% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 52° SE MO 46° to 52° South IL 46° to 52° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 46° to 52° West KY 46° to 52° NW TN 48° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: NW at 8 to 16 early and then NW at 5 to 10 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 46° to 52°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? If fog develops there could be lower visibility in some areas.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
Moonrise: 1:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:56 AM

Saturday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A slight chance of thunderstorms over northern parts of southeast Missouri and northern parts of southern Illinois. Breezy. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. High temperatures in the lower to middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the 44 to 48-degree range. Some of the guidance shows lower 50’s. I went a tad cooler, for now. South southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph

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Sunday: Medium confidence. Quite a bit of sun. High temperatures in the upper 60’s to middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the 46 to 52-degree range. Northerly winds at 6 to 12 mph.

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Monday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm during the day and a 20% chance at night. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s. South and southeast wind 7 to 14 mph and gusty.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: Isolated severe risk. Organized severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Scattered lightning is possible into Thursday evening. A few storms could produce heavy downpours and pea size hail. Gusty winds, as well.

Friday through Monday: At this time, severe weather is not anticipated. I will be monitoring the risk of a few storms Saturday into Monday night. Lightning would be the concern. Low confidence in storms forming.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Showers and thunderstorms will be the main topic over the next 48 hours.
Dry weather on Friday.
The weekend outlook.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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No major adjustments.

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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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There will be some lightning. Otherwise, just regular showers and thunderstorms. Isolated severe risk. Avoid flooded roadways.

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Forecast discussion.
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Today into Friday.
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Forecast

A fairly straight-forward weather forecast over the next 48 hours. Mild temperatures with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. A few heavy downpours are possible.

We have a frontal boundary pushing into the region. This front will help trigger the showers and thunderstorms.

You can see the front on this on Wednesday and Thursday’s weather map.

The front will clear the area by Friday. That will shut off the rain chances.

The good news is that I am not anticipating organized severe thunderstorms. An isolated warning is possible but the risk of damaging wind and large hail reports will be low.

Rainfall totals through Thursday night will likely average between 0.40″ to 0.80″. This is in addition to whatever fell on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Some areas will receive much higher totals. This will occur where thunderstorms train over the same areas. I would not rule out some locations picking up one to two+ inches.

Clouds will help to squash temperatures from rising into the 80’s. Plenty of spring to go. Plenty of time for more 80’s!

You likely won’t notice much temperature change ahead and behind this cold front during the daylight hours. A bit cooler. Perhaps a tad less humidity on Friday. A bit cooler on Friday night. Some 40’s are possible.

April, thus far.

Let’s take a look at the month to date temperature anomalies. The forecast was for above normal temperatures.

So far, that has been the case. Remember, this is the monthly average.

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Let’s take a look at precipitation over the last 30 days.

Very heavy totals over portions of the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valleys.

No lack of rain!

We will add to these totals over the next 48 hours.

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This is the precipitation anomaly map. For the most part, it has been wet.

This is the SPI index. It is a better measure of soil moisture than some of the other maps.

The green and blue colors are above normal anomalies. The dark blue is well above normal.

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Long Range

Saturday into Wednesday.

There remain some questions about the weekend forecast.

If you have outdoor plans then move forward with those. Even if a few showers develop, it won’t be a wash-out. Scattered, at best is the current forecast.

The chance of rain should be a bit higher over northern portions of southeast Missouri and northern portions of southern Illinois. That would be from Perryville, Missouri east to Carmi, Illinois and then north of that line. Rain chances south of that line will won’t be as great.

It will be windy on Saturday. Gusts above 20 mph will be possible.

I have small rain chances both days. There is a weak system that will pass near the region. Confidence in showers and thunderstorms developing is currently rather low.

I am hoping to gain some confidence in the overall forecast today and tonight.

Another cold front may bring additional rain chances by Monday night into Wednesday.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.
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Here is the Hrrr short-range model.
Time-stamp upper left.

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Here is the high-resolution NAM 3K model. You can see how it handles tomorrow’s rain chances.

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Here is the GFS future-cast radar. GFS is another model.

The GFS model is a lower resolution model. It can show activity a bit more widespread than it will be.

Time-stamp upper left.

Looking even further out. The GFS is quite active as we move into May.

Hope this is wrong. It is the long range. Still time for adjustments. We don’t need a lot of rain.

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These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: