2018 Teddy Bear Fund Raiser Campaign!
We are about $500 short for our fundraiser. Please consider donating $5 or $10. Much appreciated!
The Shadow Angel Foundation is raising money for new teddy bears to be donated to Child Watch and PASAC of western Kentucky. This is our 15th year of donating new bears to these two organizations.
This is a matching fundraiser. That means your donation is doubled.
If you would like to help then follow this link
April 18, 2018
The KPAH WSR-88D Doppler radar operated by the NOAA National Weather Service in Paducah,
KY will be down for a little over three weeks for the repair of a major mechanical component.
An engineering team from the Radar Operations Center (ROC) in Norman, Oklahoma, determined
that the bull gear, the primary gear for turning the radar antenna, has failed. This repair will
require 12,000 to 15,000 pounds of equipment and a six-person team from the ROC to restore
the radar. At this time, the team anticipates repairs being completed during the next couple of
weeks with the radar returning to service by May 11th.
During the downtime, adjacent NWS supporting radars include:
Springfield, MO (KSGF)
St. Louis, MO (KLSX)
Lincoln, IL (KILX)
Indianapolis, IN (KIND)
Louisville, KY (KLVX)
Evansville, IN (KVWX)
Fort Campbell, KY (KHPX)
Nashville, TN (KOHX)
Memphis, TN (KNQA)
Little Rock, AR (KLZK).
The Paducah, KY WSR-88D is 23 years old and part of a network of 159 operational radars. The
radars are supported by three federal agencies: NOAA National Weather Service, United States
Air Force, and the Federal Aviation Administration. The Radar Operations Center provides
lifecycle management and support for all WSR-88Ds.
WeatherTalk monthly operating costs can top $2000.00. Your $3 subscription helps pay for those costs. I work for you.
For $3 a month you can receive the following. You may choose to receive these via your WeatherTalk app or regular text messaging.
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- Daily forecast app/texts from my computer to your app/cell phone.
- Social media links sent directly to your app/cell phone. When I update the blog, videos, or Facebook you will receive the link.
- AWARE emails. These emails keep you well ahead of the storm. They give you several days of lead time before significant weather events.
- Direct access to Beau via text and email. Your very own personal meteorologist. I work for you!
- Missouri and Ohio Valley centered video updates
- Long-range weather videos
- Week one, two, three and four temperature and precipitation outlooks.
- Monthly outlooks.
- Your subscription also will help support several local charities.
Haven’t you subscribed? Subscribe at www.beaudodsonweather.com
Example of a recent severe weather alert. I issued this well before the official tornado warning. You would have had plenty of time for you and your family to seek shelter.
Your $3 per month also helps support these local charity projects.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
WWW.WEATHERTALK.COM subscribers, here is my day to day schedule for your weather products.
April 24, 2018
Tuesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning fog will mix out. Quite a few clouds. A few showers possible, esp over southeast Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Sunshine may spread eastward from southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois today. At least broken clouds.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 40% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph with gusts to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Tuesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. A few remaining showers over western Kentucky and Tennessee. Most likely dry elsewhere.
Temperatures: MO ~ 48 to 54 IL ~ 48 to 54 KY ~ 48 to 54 TN ~ 48 to 54
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 10% IL ~ 10% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered over Kentucky and Tennessee
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:37 PM
April 25, 2018
Wednesday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning sun and patchy fog. Increasing clouds through the day. Rain increasingly likely during the afternoon across southeast Missouri extreme southwest Illinois and far western Kentucky. A rumble of thunder possible. A few showers elsewhere but less likely.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 68 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 68 TN ~ 65 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 70% near Poplar Bluff, 60% near Cape Girardeau, tapering to 50% near Perry County, Missouri IL ~ 40% KY ~ 60% far western seven counties tapering to 10% near Owensboro TN ~ 70%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to none northeast counties. Becoming numerous over southeast Missouri and portions of southwest Illinois, western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Perhaps lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No during the morning. Be prepared for some rain over the southwest half of the region during the afternoon.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Wednesday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Quite a few clouds. Rain likely over southeast Missouri, far western Kentucky, and northwest Tennessee. Some scattered rain elsewhere. A thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 42 to 46 KY ~ 45 to 48 TN ~ 45 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 60% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 50% TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
Winds: North to northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars and be prepared for rain showers over the southwest half of the region.
Sunset: 7:38 PM
April 26, 2018
Thursday Forecast Details
Forecast: Morning clouds. Rain showers possible across southeast Missouri into western Kentucky and Tennessee. Lesser rain chances north and east of there. A small chance of lightning.
Temperatures: MO ~ 65 to 70 IL ~ 65 to 68 KY ~ 65 to 70 TN ~ 65 to 70
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 40% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Winds: East at 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 18 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? West roadways
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor radars for potential showers.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Thursday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Partly cloudy early. Increasing clouds overnight. Isolated showers late.
Temperatures: MO ~ 44 to 48 IL ~ 44 to 48 KY ~ 46 to 48 TN ~ 48 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 10% TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: Variable winds at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:39 PM
April 27, 2018
Friday Forecast Details
Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A rain shower possible.
Temperatures: MO ~ 63 to 66 IL ~ 63 to 66 KY ~ 63 to 66 TN ~ 63 to 66
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 30% IL ~ 30% KY ~ 30% TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
Winds: South and southwest becoming west at 7 to 14 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None to perhaps a few wet roadways.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: LOW
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Friday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Some evening clouds. A slight chance of a shower before 8 PM. Becoming mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 40 to 45 TN ~ 40 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 20% IL ~ 20% KY ~ 20% TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
Winds: North at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Most likely none.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
April 28, 2018
Saturday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny.
Temperatures: MO ~ 64 to 68 IL ~ 64 to 68 KY ~ 64 to 68 TN ~ 64 to 68
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: North and northwest at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:03 AM
Saturday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear. Cool.
Temperatures: MO ~ 40 to 45 IL ~ 40 to 45 KY ~ 42 to 45 TN ~ 42 to 45
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: Variable 4 to 8 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:40 PM
April 29, 2018
Sunday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 68 to 74 IL ~ 68 to 74 KY ~ 68 to 74 TN ~ 68 to 74
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:02 AM
Sunday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: Mostly clear.
Temperatures: MO ~ 45 to 50 IL ~ 45 to 50 KY ~ 45 to 50 TN ~ 46 to 50
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:41 PM
April 30, 2018
Monday Forecast Details
Forecast: Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Temperatures: MO ~ 72 to 76 IL ~ 72 to 76 KY ~ 72 to 76 TN ~ 72 to 76
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunrise: 6:01 AM
Monday Night Forecast Details:
Forecast: A few clouds. Otherwise, clear sky conditions and mild.
Temperatures: MO ~ 54 to 58 IL ~ 54 to 58 KY ~ 54 to 58 TN ~ 54 to 58
What is the chance of precipitation? MO ~ 0% IL ~ 0% KY ~ 0% TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Winds: South at 5 to 10 mph
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium
Is severe weather expected? No
The NWS defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:42 PM
THE UPDATE BELOW IS FROM EARLIER TODAY.
I HAVE SINCE ADDED INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION
RAIN TOTALS
This is the 24-hour rainfall forecast. If a thunderstorm forms then heavier totals will occur.
This is the NAM and GFS model. It won’t be exact. Take a general idea from the graphic. Some bands of rain possible today as the upper-level low continues to pull away.
NAM
and GFS
Seven-day rainfall forecast
This will likely need some adjusting. These totals depend on two systems. One on Wednesday and one on Friday.
Models are not showing much rain in southern Illinois. This will need to be monitored.
The greatest rain coverage (after today) will likely be Friday. A band of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm along a passing cold front will push northwest to southeast through the region.
Interactive Radars:
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
Questions? Broken links? Other?
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
Tuesday through Sunday: Severe weather is not anticipated. I can’t rule out lightning on Friday.
Interactive live weather radar page. Choose the city nearest your location. If one of the cities does not work then try a nearby one. Click here.
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
Live lightning data: Click here.
Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
The spring and preliminary summer outlooks have been posted for subscribers. Scroll down to see the outlook.
Not a subscriber? Learn more at this link.
Weather Headlines
- A few remaining showers today.
- Mild temperatures into the weekend.
- Isolated showers possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Most will remain dry.
- A cold front on Friday with some additional rain chances.
- Dry Saturday and Sunday.
Monday afternoon and evening delivered copious amounts of rain to some of our counties. Rainfall totals range from 0.00″ to over two inches in a few locations. Combine that with the rain totals from Sunday into Monday morning and some locations topped five inches of rain!
Many areas received one to two inches of rain through the event (Sunday night into Monday evening).
Numerous roads in western Kentucky experienced flooding. Some roadways were even closed.
There were several reports of pea to dime size hail and at least one cold air funnel!
Many of you posted photographs of the cold air funnel.
What is a cold air funnel?
I grabbed this from one of my college professors. From Haby Hints.
A cold air funnel is a high based weak circulation that occurs in a cool air mass. By high based it is meant it develops well above the earth’s surface. Since it is high based and weak they rarely impact the earth’s surface although they can look threatening. Unlike typical tornadoes, cold air funnels develop in a shallow cool air mass and often behind a cold frontal passage. The mixing of cool and windy conditions in the lower troposphere with air in the middle troposphere flowing in a different direction may spark the rotation that spins up the funnel. If the air is moist enough and rises enough the condensation funnel will be visible. The image below gives an idea of what these cold air funnels look like.
This photo was taken on the north side of Princeton, Kentucky, near Fredonia, Kentucky, Monday evening. Photo credit goes to Sara Choate.
Cold air funnels are usually associated with upper-level lows. They rarely touch down and are normally just a novelty. This one was well photographed. I received 8 photographs of it. There were also some videos posted online.
The funnel soon lifted after making a brief photographic appearance.
Conditions today will be a bit calmer. Expect highs in the 60’s. Not too bad for this time of the year. A little below normal but we won’t complain.
We will still have a few remaining showers. Perhaps an isolated thunderstorm. The storm system responsible for our recent heavy rain will continue to pull off to the east and southeast. The further east it travels the less rain coverage we will have.
There is a 20% to 40% chance of showers today. Perhaps as high as 40% for our eastern counties. Expect a few showers on radar but many areas will remain dry.
Here is the Hrrr model guidance future-cast radar. What radar might look like today. A few spotty showers. This won’t be exact, of course. One model’s opinion.
Timestamp upper left.
Temperatures today through Saturday will mostly be in the 60’s. I can’t rule out 70 degrees by Sunday and Monday. That sure will feel nice.
We will have to deal with some clouds over the next 36 hours.
Rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday night will fall at or below 20%. Plan on dry conditions.
A fast moving system will brush our region late Wednesday night and Thursday. Perhaps isolated showers over southeast Missouri. Low confidence on that happening.
Our next storm system will be a cold front that will pass through the region Friday. I am still monitoring the timing of the system. For now, it appears the front will pass through the region during the day.
Severe weather is unlikely. I can’t rule out a thunderstorm.
It appears that a band of rain will accompany the cold front. Rainfall totals will likely be at or below 0.50″. Monitor updates since this is still several days away.
There remains some question about how much moisture the system will have to work with. If we are lucky it will remain mostly dry.
The great news is that both Saturday and Sunday should be dry. Finally, a dry weekend. Let’s hope the forecast holds. I know many of you have outdoor activities.
Here is the GFS future-cast radar. This is the Friday system. It shows light rain in our region. It has a broken line of showers. This is still a question. Will it be a solid line of rain or broken line.
Weather Brains is a weekly podcast/video for those who love weather and want more!
Weather Brains episode number 638
Tonight’s Guest WeatherBrain is the Associate Director at the Extreme Events Institute at Florida International University. Erik Salna, welcome to WeatherBrains!
Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like:
- Extremes: 95 at Death Valley, CA, and 9 at Valentine, NE
- Wet weekend over Southeast US
- A chilly start to the week with 30s into Southeast US
- The potential of severe storms Friday into Saturday
- Tornadoes touch down in Carolinas and Virginia
- Astronomy Outlook with Tony Rice
- and more!
Previous episodes can be viewed by clicking here.
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The local city view radars also have clickable warnings.
During the winter months, you can track snow and ice by clicking the winterize button on the local city view interactive radars.
You may email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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You can learn more about those projects by visiting the Shadow Angel Foundation website and the Beau Dodson News website.
I encourage subscribers to use the app vs regular text messaging. We have found text messaging to be delayed during severe weather. The app typically will receive the messages instantly. I recommend people have three to four methods of receiving their severe weather information.
Remember, my app and text alerts are hand typed and not computer generated. You are being given personal attention during significant weather events.
