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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
For those who had low clouds and fog on Saturday, sorry about that. I try to bat about 80% on forecast accuracy. I sure did miss the forecast for parts of the region today. Bummed about it. Hoping Sunday will deliver more sun than clouds.
Saturday Night – Partly cloudy over our eastern counties. Mostly clear elsewhere. Patchy fog possible late tonight.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 50s
Winds: Winds east at 4-8 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Perhaps some fog late at night.
Sunday – Some morning fog and clouds again possible. Otherwise, partly sunny. Some increase in clouds during the afternoon (especially over the western half of the area). Warm day expected.
Temperatures: High temperatures 80-85
Winds: Southwest winds at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
Coverage of precipitation? None
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Early morning patchy fog possible.
Sunday Night – Partly cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? None to isolated.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? None
Monday – Quite a few clouds. Very warm. A less than 10% chance for a thunderstorm over northwest parts of the area (northern southeast Missouri).
Temperatures: High temperatures 80-85
Winds: South winds at 8-16 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? <10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated, if any.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What impact is expected? Most likely none.
Monday Night – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower to middle 60s
Winds: Winds South at 5-10 mph with gusts 15
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Isolated to perhaps scattered.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Perhaps wet roadways. Lightning.
Tuesday – Partly cloudy. A scattered thunderstorm possible. If a storm forms then it would be heavy.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the lower 80s
Winds: South and southwest winds at 7-14 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%-40%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered showers and storms are possible on Tuesday. The odds favor your location remaining dry. But, there should be some precipitation on radar during the afternoon hours. There is a CAP on the atmosphere. And, that might help keep storm chances down.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? If a storm forms then it could be intense.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. If storms form then lightning, gusty winds, and even hail will be possible. Heavy downpours.
Tuesday Night – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 40%-50% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 60s
Winds: Winds south at 6-12 mph. Gusty near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 40%-50%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor trends
Is severe weather expected? The atmosphere will be unstable on Tuesday night. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Perhaps a few strong storms.
Wednesday – Partly to mostly cloudy. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures from 78 to 82 (cloud cover could keep temps down a bit. More sun and it will be warmer)
Winds: South at 10-20 mph. Strong winds near storms.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is High
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates. Storms are possible
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning. Heavy rain. Gusty winds. Strong storms. Wet roadways.
Wednesday Night – Mostly Cloudy. A 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures: Lows in the lower 60s
Winds: Winds south and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Medium
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? I would monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning. Heavy downpours. Strong storms.
Thursday – Partly sunny. Isolated thunderstorm risk.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the upper 70s
Winds: South at 5-10 mph. Gusts to 15 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%-30%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates.
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? If a storm does form then locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds.
Thursday Night – Partly Cloudy.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s
Winds: Winds west and southwest at 6-12 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 20%
Coverage of precipitation: None to isolated
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Monitor updates
Friday – Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle 70s
Winds: Northeast at 5-10 mph.
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
Coverage of precipitation? Isolated to none
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Most likely none
Friday Night – Increasing clouds. A 30% chance for thunderstorms after 2 am
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s
Winds: Winds south at 10-20 mph
What is the chance for precipitation? 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updated forecasts
Is severe weather expected? Unlikely
What impact is expected? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Saturday – A good chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures: High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s
Winds: South at 10-20 mph and gusty.
What is the chance for precipitation? 60%
Coverage of precipitation? Numerous
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is Low
Should I be concerned about snow or ice? No
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Monitor updates
Is severe weather expected? Strong storms are possible. Monitor updates.
What impact is expected? Lightning, locally heavy rain. Strong storms possible.
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak, Kentucky.
Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
The School Bus Stop Forecast is sponsored by Heath Health and Wellness. Located next to Crowell Pools in Lone Oak.
Heath Health Foods is a locally owned and operated retail health and wellness store. Since opening in February 2006; the store has continued to grow as a ministry with an expanding inventory which also offers wellness appointments and services along with educational opportunities. Visit their web-site here. And. visit Heath Health Foods on Facebook!
Don’t forget to check out the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory web-site for weather maps, tower cams, scanner feeds, radars, and much more! Click here
An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
- Hoping Sunday is sunnier for those who had clouds on Saturday. Sorry about that.
- Increasing chances for thunderstorms this week. Several rounds possible.
- Monitor updates this week concerning strong thunderstorms.
NOTICE on Credit Card statements for WeatherTalk. A number of cards were NOT charged in February and March. Your statement will say pending. You were never charged. Today all of the cards finally processed. It is possible that if you were not charged in February or March that you will see three charges this month. February, March, and April. I apologize for the issues.
You were only charged once. Even though the “PENDING” charge would have shown up on previous statements. It was never processed.
Today it was processed.
If you signed up for monthly then it is possible you will see February, March, and April’s charges on this months statement. But, again you were never charged previously.
There was an error card in the batches and it caused all transactions on three separate days (in February and March) to be kicked out of the system. Thus, you were never charged.
I have had a couple of people ask me about this. Thinking they were charged multiple times. The only people who would see multiple charges are the ones with a monthly billing plan.
Anyone who paid up front for an entire year was only charged once. Again, you might see pending on previous statements. But, pending means you were not charged.
If you have any concerns then private message me.
Thank you and sorry for any confusion or inconvenience.
Beau
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
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Widespread severe weather is not anticipated through this week.
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Monday – Severe weather is not anticipated. Slight chance for a thunderstorm.
Tuesday into Tuesday night: Thunderstorms are possible. Monitor updates.
Wednesday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated
Saturday: Thunderstorms possible. Monitor updates
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No major changes. I did update the probabilities for storms each day. The guidance is starting to show a clearer picture for the upcoming week.
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The main concern will be thunderstorm chances over the upcoming week. And, some of the storms could be strong/severe. Monitor updates each day. There are a lot of moving parts to the forecast. That means adjustments on the timing of thunderstorms could change.
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
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An increasing chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week. This may last most of next week. On and off storm chances. Locally heavy rain possible.
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
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Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience.
My resume includes:
Member of the American Meteorological Society.
NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador.
Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management. I served from 2005 through 2015.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
Recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross.
In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award.
Recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
