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This forecast update covers far southern Illinois, far southeast Missouri, and far western Kentucky. See the coverage map on the right side of the blog.
Remember that weather evolves. Check back frequently for updates, especially during active weather.
The forecast numbers below may vary a bit across the region. These are the averages.
Sunday night – A 20% chance for a shower or thunderstorm early in the evening. Decreasing clouds late.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s.
Winds: West/northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 20% mostly early
What impact is expected? No significant impacts expected
Monday – Decreasing clouds. Beautiful temperatures for late August. Stunning.
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s to around 80 degrees
Winds: Northwest winds at 5-10 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 10%
What impact is expected? None
Monday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle 50’s.
Winds: Northwest winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday – Mostly sunny with beautiful temperatures for August. Amazing weather.
Temperatures: Highs in the middle to upper 70’s
Winds: North/northwest winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Tuesday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the middle to upper 50’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday – Mostly sunny. Amazing weather for late August
Temperatures: Highs in the upper 70’s and lower 80’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Wednesday night – Mostly clear and pleasant.
Temperatures: Lows in the upper 50’s to lower 60’s.
Winds: Northerly winds at 5 mph.
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
Thursday – Mostly sunny. Continued nice weather. Perhaps a little warmer.
Temperatures: Highs in the lower to middle 80’s.
Winds: Northeast winds at 5-10 mph
My confidence in this part of the forecast verifying is high
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Is severe weather expected? No
What is the chance for precipitation? 0%
What impact is expected? None
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An explanation of what is happening in the atmosphere over the coming days…
Highlights
1. A beautiful week of weather ahead of us
2. Some morning fog can’t be ruled out this week
3. A reminder that fall typically brings several episodes of severe weather to our region.
I have nothing but good news for this weeks weather. Expect quite a bit of sunshine Monday into Friday. Temperatures will average below normal through the period.
Expect highs in the 70’s and lower 80’s through at least Thursday. Overnight lows will dip into the 50’s on several nights. Perhaps warming more towards to the lower to middle 60’s by Friday morning.
This is an incredible stretch of nice weather! I doubt anyone will complain about this weeks forecast.
We could have fog in the region during the early morning hours. Keep that in mind.
I saw this graphic online and thought it was funny! What do you think? How do you view a 20% chance of rain?
I have never liked probabilities. But, when it comes to weather I am afraid that probabilities are a fact of life. I would rather say scattered showers or thunderstorms vs a 20% chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Sometimes I think people believe that a 20% chance of rain means I don’t expect rain. Normally it means that I do expect rain, but the odds are in your favor that it will remain dry at your location.
Anyway, I thought this was cute.
On a more serious note…
I want to remind everyone that we typically experience several rounds of severe weather during October and November. It is impossible to say how this year will go. Many of you will remember a number of significant tornado outbreaks during the fall. Meteorologists consider this a secondary tornado season. I don’t like the word season. It implies that we can’t have tornadoes during any given month. We can and have.
But, we do typically see an uptick in tornadoes during October and November.
Let’s take a look at a graphic from the Paducah, Kentucky National Weather Service. This shows you the number of tornadoes by month. Notice what happens during the fall months? We start to see an increase.
We don’t have any severe weather worries for the upcoming week.
Radars
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
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How much precipitation should we expect over the next few days?
No precipitation is forecast Monday through Friday. I don’t know how long it has been since I have been able to say that.
Can we expect severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours? Remember that a severe thunderstorm is defined as a thunderstorm that produces 58 mph winds or higher, quarter size hail or larger, and/or a tornado.
Thunderstorm threat level will be ZERO from Monday through Friday.
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Monday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Tuesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Wednesday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Thursday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
Friday: Severe weather is not anticipated.
I have no concerns for Monday through Friday. I think you are going to enjoy this week. Could be some patchy fog on some mornings.
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Here are the current river stage forecasts. You can click your state and then the dot for your location. It will bring up the full forecast and hydrograph.
Click Here For River Stage Forecasts…
Here are some current forecast hydrographs. These will be updated each day with new information.
Smithland Lock and Dam
Paducah, Kentucky Forecast Stage
Cairo, Illinois
Cape Girardeau, Missouri
Current Temperatures Around The Local Area
We have regional radars and local city radars – if a radar does not seem to be updating then try another one. Occasional browsers need their cache cleared. You may also try restarting your browser. That usually fixes the problem. Occasionally we do have a radar go down. That is why I have duplicates. Thus, if one fails then try another one.
If you have any problems then please send me an email beaudodson@usawx.com
WEATHER RADAR PAGE – Click here —
We also have a new national interactive radar – you can view that radar by clicking here.
Local interactive city radars include St Louis, Mt Vernon, Evansville, Poplar Bluff, Cape Girardeau, Marion, Paducah, Hopkinsville, Memphis, Nashville, Dyersburg, and all of eastern Kentucky – these are interactive radars. Local city radars – click here
NOTE: Occasionally you will see ground clutter on the radar (these are false echoes). Normally they show up close to the radar sites – including Paducah.
Regional Radar – Click on radar to take you our full radar page.
Regional Radar
Live Lightning Data – zoom and pan: Click here
Live Lightning Data with sound (click the sound button on the left side of the page): Click here
I also set up a storm tracking page with additional links (use during active weather for quick reference)
Storm Tracking Tool Page
Current WARNINGS (a warning means take action now). Click on your county to drill down to the latest warning information. Keep in mind that there can be a 2-3 minute delay in the updated warning information.
I strongly encourage you to use a NOAA Weather Radio or warning cell phone app for the most up to date warning information. Nothing is faster than a NOAA weather radio.
Color shaded counties are under some type of watch, warning, advisory, or special weather statement. Click your county to view the latest information.
Missouri Warnings
Illinois Warnings
Kentucky Warnings
Here is the official 6-10 day and 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Check the date stamp at the top of each image (so you understand the time frame).
The forecast maps below are issued by the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA).
The latest 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook. Note the dates are at the top of the image. These maps DO NOT tell you how high or low temperatures or precipitation will be. They simply give you the probability as to whether temperatures or precipitation will be above or below normal.
Who do you trust for your weather information and who holds them accountable?
I have studied weather in our region since the late 1970’s. I have 37 years of experience in observing our regions weather patterns. My degree is in Broadcast Meteorology from Mississippi State University and an Associate of Science (AS). I am currently working on my Bachelor’s Degree in Geoscience. Just need to finish two Spanish classes!
I am a member of the American Meteorological Society. I am a NOAA Weather-Ready Nation Ambassador. And, I am the Meteorologist for McCracken County Emergency Management.
I own and operate the Southern Illinois Weather Observatory.
There is a lot of noise on the internet. A lot of weather maps are posted without explanation. Over time you should learn who to trust for your weather information.
My forecast philosophy is simple and straight forward.
- Communicate in simple terms
- To be as accurate as possible within a reasonable time frame before an event
- Interact with you on Twitter, Facebook, and the blog
- Minimize the “hype” that you might see on television or through other weather sources
- Push you towards utilizing wall-to-wall LOCAL TV coverage during severe weather events
I am a recipient of the Mark Trail Award, WPSD Six Who Make A Difference Award, Kentucky Colonel, and the Caesar J. Fiamma” Award from the American Red Cross. In 2009 I was presented with the Kentucky Office of Highway Safety Award. I was recognized by the Kentucky House of Representatives for my service to the State of Kentucky leading up to several winter storms and severe weather outbreaks.
If you click on the image below you can read the Kentucky House of Representatives Resolution.
I am also President of the Shadow Angel Foundation which serves portions of western Kentucky and southern Illinois.
Many of my graphics are from www.weatherbell.com – a great resource for weather data, model data, and more
You can sign up for my AWARE email by clicking here I typically send out AWARE emails before severe weather, winter storms, or other active weather situations. I do not email watches or warnings. The emails are a basic “heads up” concerning incoming weather conditions.
