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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Friday to Friday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Friday night. Saturday. Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching next Wednesday and Wednesday night. Perhaps Thursday. I can’t rule out some intense thunderstorms.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time, but monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible next Wednesday into Wednesday night. Depending on how much rain falls Friday night/Saturday, there could be a few spots with issues towards the middle of next week. Let’s keep an eye on it. The long range forecast shows multiple thunderstorm chances over the coming three weeks.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Morning showers ending, then a lull. Perhaps a few late afternoon showers redeveloping.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 40% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Mainly after 11 AM across the rest of the area.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 64° / South IL 62° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 64° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 6. High.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain. A thunderstorm is possible. The bulk of the rain will occur after 9 PM vs before. Scattered before. Becoming widespread late.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% / MO Bootheel ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 50° to 52° / SE MO 50° to 52° / South IL 48° to 52° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 50° to 52° / West KY 50° to 54° / NW TN 52° to 54°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 48° to 54°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B after 7 PM and monitor radars.
Moonrise: 3:44 PM
Moonset: 4:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Rain chances will be higher before 2PM vs after.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% / MO Bootheel ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: The bulk of this will be before 1 PM. Then, decreasing chances.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some downpours possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 46° / South IL 42° to 46° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 46° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph early becoming northwest 6 to 12 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 46°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:55 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 74° / SE MO 68° to 72° / South IL 68° to 72° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:08 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 80° / SE MO 75° to 80° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 78° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Breezy, at times. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:22 PM
Moonset: 5:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 84° / SE MO 78° to 82° / South IL 78° to 82° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 82° / West KY 80° to 82° / NW TN 82° to 84°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 6:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing from the west. Rain chances may be higher in the PM hours vs AM.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day. Higher chances PM vs AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 76° to 80° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 75° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 75° to 80° / West KY 75° to 80° / NW TN 78° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
SE MO ~ 80% / MO Bootheel ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 80% / South IL ~ 80% / West KY ~ 80% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 80%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 3 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Locally heavy rain.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:56 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Showers and thunderstorms may continue into Thursday
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 27th. Severe weather is not anticipated. I am watching April 28th.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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Weather Discussion
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- Rain chances today into Saturday afternoon.
- No severe weather through Tuesday.
- Strong warming trend Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday. 80s possible.
- Thunderstorms late Tuesday night into at least Wednesday night (perhaps Thursday).
Are cold weather, at least for now, has ended. Models do show the potential of another cold shot towards week two. For now, that is too far off for any confidence. It is accompanied by an upper level low pressure center. That would mean some scattered showers and cool temperatures (clouds). I will monitor trends.
We are waking up to scattered showers. This was expected. This rain is well ahead of the main storm system that will bring rain to the region tonight into Saturday morning and afternoon.
This morning’s rain showers will be light. The coverage is a bit higher over southeast Missouri vs the rest of the area. Either way, these showers will end this morning leaving us with a lull between the systems.
If you have plans Friday night into Saturday afternoon, then you will want to monitor the live weather radars and plan accordingly.
Rain chances will ramp up mid to late tonight and continue into Saturday morning. The rain will then end west to east Saturday afternoon. Ending across southeast Missouri first and then the rest of the area.
I can’t rule out a thunderstorm, but widespread storms are not likely. Some moderate rain will be possible. Generally, I am forecasting o.50″ to 1.00″ of rain.
Here is the latest WPC/NOAA rainfall forecast for this event. You can see, they lowered their totals just a tad.
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Severe weather is not going to be a concern in our local area. Areas to our south and southwest may see some severe thunderstorms.
Temperatures will begin to push towards seasonable levels Sunday and Monday. We have experienced below normal temperatures for the last two weeks. April has been an odd-ball.
The region will bask under sunshine Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s and perhaps even some 80+ degree readings (Tuesday).
Our next weather event will arrive Tuesday night into Thursday. I am leaning towards that one being centered towards Wednesday/Wednesday night.
Let me show you the GFS high temperatures. These may be a tad too low.
Monday
Tuesday
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Next Tuesday night into Thursday, an area of low pressure will form over the Midwest. This system will then push east/northeast into Missouri and Iowa. A cold front will drag through our region towards the middle of the week.
The system has slowed a bit. It now appears the bulk of the rain won’t arrive until Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Earlier, it appeared that it might be about 12 hours earlier.
The system is still several days away and adjustments are possible.
We may have some intense thunderstorms, but it is a bit early to know for sure. Stay tuned on that one.
Locally heavy rain could be a concern next week. Again, as mentioned above, models have slowed the system by 12 to 24 hours. The bulk of the rain will likely occur Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. The system is still several days away. Thus, monitor updates.
PWAT values will be high for an extended period of time. This is a locally heavy rain signal.
GFS PWAT anomaly map for the mid-week event.
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Let’s look at the rain totals for the two systems combined. The weekend one and then the one towards the middle of next week.
WPC/NOAA
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GFS model.
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EC model guidance.
EC model guidance.
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Let’s remember that our peak tornado months are April, May, and June. Remember, winter was dull until it wasn’t. It all came at once.
Let’s continue to stay weather aware over the coming weeks.
Models indicate the potential of a warmer than normal May. We shall see how that pans out.
There is a Pacific Typhoon that could mess with the May forecast. It is something that I am monitoring. Sometimes these systems can cause cooler air and sometimes warmer air. It depends on the exact track.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 74 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.90″ to 1.30″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 23rd through April 29th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 55 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.50″
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This outlook covers April 30th through May 6th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 54 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 2.50″ to 2.90″
This outlook covers May 7th through May 20th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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