April 23, 2019: Nonsubscribers update.

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Today: No. Lightning will be possible.
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Tomorrow: No. Lightning will be possible.

On/off rain chances today into Thursday night.
Peak rain chances are likely to be Wednesday into Thursday.

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Today through Thursday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Lighting is possible today into Thursday.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Friday through Monday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible on Thursday and Thursday night. I am monitoring Saturday night/Sunday, as well.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 23, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: A mix of sun and clouds. A few showers or thunderstorms may develop this afternoon. Better chances now appear to be tonight.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (80% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 76° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None this morning. A few spotty/scattered storms possible this afternoon.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? A few wet roadways. Isolated lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 4 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 58° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 54° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 54° to 56° West KY 54° to 58° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Becoming north and northeast at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:37 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:20 AM

April 24, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60 NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 7:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:09 AM

April 25, 2019
Thursday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 68° to 72° SE MO 66° to 70° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 68° to 72° NW TN 70° to 74°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 64° to 72°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 60% Southeast MO 60% IL 60% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60% Western KY 60% NW TN 60%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
UV Index: 4 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
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Thursday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 53° to 56° SE MO 53° to 56° South IL 53° to 56° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 53° to 56 NW TN 54° to 56°
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous early. Becoming scattered and ending.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor updates.
Sunset: 7:39 PM
Moonrise: 1:06 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 11:01 AM

Friday: High confidence. Partly sunny. High temperatures in the middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the lower 50’s. North and northeast at 7 to 14 mph

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Saturday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday night. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 50’s. South southwest winds at 8 to 16 MPH

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Sunday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. A 20% chance of a shower or thunderstorm. High temperatures in the middle to upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. Variable wind at 7 to 14 mph.

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

This will be updated at 8 AM

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe thunderstorms. Scattered lightning is possible today and tonight. The greatest chance will be late this afternoon and tonight.

Thursday through Sunday: At this time, severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is Thursday and Thursday night and again on Saturday night and Sunday.

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Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Tuesday will be another warm day.
We will have a chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly late this afternoon into Thursday evening.
Peak rain coverage will likely be Wednesday into Thursday night.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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Lowered rain chances today.

Increased rain chances tonight and tomorrow.

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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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No.

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Forecast discussion.
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Today into Thursday.
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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Monday delivered warn temperatures into the region. Many areas hit 80 degrees. Those warm temperatures will continue into much of this week. What we will add to the mix are clouds and some rain chances

A weak cold front will approach the region today and tonight. A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front. Severe weather is not anticipated. Lightning is possible. This does not appear to be a heavy rain event.

Rain totals on today and tonight will range from 0.00″ to 0.40″. Isolated higher in storms. Not everyone will experience rain.

A stronger weather system will bring increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms as we push into mainly Wednesday and Thursday. Rain ending Thursday night.

Rain totals of 0.30″ to 0.60″ will be possible. Again, severe weather appears unlikely with that system, as well. We are having good fortune in the severe weather department.

That means rain totals from today through Thursday night will mostly be in the 0.50″ to 1.00″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.

Long Range

Friday into Sunday.

I am anticipating dry weather Friday and Saturday. It will be mild/warm, as well. That is good news!

There should be an increase in clouds by Saturday afternoon and Saturday night.

I have a slight chance of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday. Monitor updates. We have a few days to monitor that front.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here is the Hrrr short-range model.

Time-stamp upper left.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar. The NAM is a model.

Time-stamp upper left.

Here is the high-resolution NAM3 K model. You can see how it handles tomorrow’s rain chances.
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Here is the GFS future-cast radar. GFS is another model.

The GFS model is a lower resolution model. It can show activity a bit more widespread than it will be.

Time-stamp upper left.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: