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Click one of the links below to take you directly to that section
Do you have any suggestions or comments? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com
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7-day forecast for southeast Missouri, southern Illinois, western Kentucky, and western Tennessee.
This is a BLEND for the region. See the detailed region by region forecast further down in this post.
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Thursday to Thursday
1. Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Friday night. Saturday. Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
2. Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast? Monitor. I am watching next Wednesday. I can’t rule out some intense thunderstorms.
The NWS officially defines a severe thunderstorm as a storm with 58 mph wind or greater, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? Not at this time, but monitor. Locally heavy rain is possible next Wednesday. Depending on how much rain falls Friday night/Saturday, there could be a few spots with issues. Let’s keep an eye on it. The long range forecast shows multiple thunderstorm chances over the coming three weeks.
4. Will the heat index top 100 degrees? No.
5. Will the wind chill dip below 10 degrees above zero? No.
6. Will there be accumulating snow and ice in the forecast? No.
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April 22, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Thursday Forecast: Mostly sunny during the morning. Some afternoon clouds.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 56° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° / West KY 58° to 62° / NW TN 60° to 64°
Wind direction and speed: West northwest at 5 mph becoming west southwest at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? AM frost
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
Sunset: 7:35 PM
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Thursday night Forecast: Increasing clouds. A few showers possible late at night.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 10%
Coverage of precipitation: Widely scattered
Timing of the rain: After midnight
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 40° to 42° / SE MO 38° to 40° / South IL 36° to 40° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 38° to 40° / West KY 38° to 42° / NW TN 42° to 44°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 4 to 8 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 38° to 44°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 2:35 PM
Moonset: 3:52 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 23, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Friday Forecast: Intervals of clouds. Morning showers ending, then a lull. Perhaps a few late afternoon showers redeveloping.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 40% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 30% / South IL ~ 30% / West KY ~ 30% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 20% / NW TN ~ 30%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day over southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois. Mainly after 11 AM across the rest of the area.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 64° / SE MO 60° to 64° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast 7 to 14 mph with higher gusts
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 60° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check the radars
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
Sunset: 7:38 PM
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Friday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain. A thunderstorm is possible. The bulk of the rain will occur after 9 PM vs before. Scattered before. Becoming widespread late.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 90% / MO Bootheel ~ 100% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / South IL ~ 100% / West KY ~ 90% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 80% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the night.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 48° to 50° / South IL 48° to 50° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 45° to 50° / West KY 46° to 52° / NW TN 50° to 52°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 10 to 20 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 45° to 50°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B after 7 PM and monitor radars.
Moonrise: 3:44 PM
Moonset: 4:26 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 24, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Saturday Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Rain likely. Perhaps a thunderstorm. Rain chances will be higher before 2PM vs after.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 80% / MO Bootheel ~ 80% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 90% / South IL ~ 90% / West KY ~ 100% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 100% / NW TN ~ 100%
Coverage of precipitation: Widespread
Timing of the rain: The bulk of this will be before 1 PM. Then, decreasing chances.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 62° to 65° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 62° to 64° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 62° to 65° / West KY 63° to 66° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 62° to 66°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Some downpours possible.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B. Monitor radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:08 AM
Sunset: 7:39 PM
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Saturday night Forecast: Decreasing clouds. Cool.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 10% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 44° to 46° / SE MO 42° to 45° / South IL 42° to 45° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 42° to 45° / West KY 42° to 45° / NW TN 44° to 46°
Wind direction and speed: Northwest at 10 to 20 mph early becoming northwest 6 to 12 mph late.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 40° to 45°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 4:55 PM
Moonset: 4:57 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 25, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Sunday Forecast: Mostly sunny
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 70° to 72° / SE MO 68° to 70° / South IL 66° to 70° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 70° / West KY 70° to 72° / NW TN 70° to 72°
Wind direction and speed: North at 6 to 12 mph becoming south at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 72°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:07 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Sunday night Forecast: Mostly clear.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 48° to 50° / SE MO 44° to 48° / South IL 44° to 48° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 44° to 48° / West KY 46° to 48° / NW TN 48° to 50°
Wind direction and speed: South southeast at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 44° to 48°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 6:08 PM
Moonset: 5:27 AM
The phase of the moon: Waxing Gibbous
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April 26, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Monday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. Warmer.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 75° to 78° / SE MO 74° to 78° / South IL 74° to 78° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° / West KY 75° to 78° / NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph. Gusty.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 80°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:06 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Monday night Forecast: Mostly clear. Breezy, at times. Mild.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 60° to 62° / SE MO 58° to 60° / South IL 58° to 60° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 60° / West KY 58° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 60°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 7:22 PM
Moonset: 5:59 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 27, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Tuesday Forecast: Mostly sunny. Breezy, at times. Quite warm.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 0% / MO Bootheel ~ 0% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 0% / South IL ~ 0% / West KY ~ 0% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 0% / NW TN ~ 0%
Coverage of precipitation: None
Timing of the rain:
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 82° to 85° / SE MO 80° to 85° / South IL 80° to 85° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 80° to 85° / West KY 80° to 85° / NW TN 82° to 85°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8. Very high.
Sunrise: 6:05 AM
Sunset: 7:41 PM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Partly cloudy. A chance of late night thunderstorms.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 30% / MO Bootheel ~ 30% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 20% / South IL ~ 20% / West KY ~ 20% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 10% / NW TN ~ 20%
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
Timing of the rain: After 2 AM
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 63° to 66° / SE MO 62° to 65° / South IL 60° to 65° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 60° to 64° / West KY 62° to 65° / NW TN 63° to 66°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 56° to 64°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Moonrise: 8:39 PM
Moonset: 6:33 AM
The phase of the moon: Full
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April 28, 2021
How confident am I that this days forecast will verify? High confidence
Wednesday Forecast: Becoming cloudy with showers and thunderstorm chances increasing from the west.
What is the chance of precipitation? SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Becoming numerous
Timing of the rain: Any given point of the day.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° / SE MO 78° to 82° / South IL 76° to 80° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 76° to 80° / West KY 78° to 80° / NW TN 80° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 76° to 82°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Locally heavy rain. Lightning. Gusty storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor updates and radars.
UV Index: 5. Moderate.
Sunrise: 6:04 AM
Sunset: 7:40 PM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
SE MO ~ 60% / MO Bootheel ~ 60% / I-64 Corridor South IL ~ 60% / South IL ~ 60% / West KY ~ 60% / NW KY (near Indiana border) ~ 60% / NW TN ~ 60%
Coverage of precipitation: Numerous
Timing of the rain: Mainly before 3 AM.
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 60° / SE MO 55° to 60° / South IL 54° to 58° / Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 55° to 60° / West KY 56° to 60° / NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 10 to 20 mph becoming west northwest at 10 to 20 mph.
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 58°
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning. Gusty storms.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? Have a plan B.
Moonrise: 9:56 PM
Moonset: 7:12 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
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These graphics are changed out between 10:00 AM and 11:45 AM (Monday through Friday only)
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
This morning’s record low temperatures.
Double click on the images to enlarge them.
Graphic-cast
Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Illinois
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Kentucky
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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.Tennessee
During active weather check my handwritten forecast towards the top of the page.
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Today through April 26th. Severe weather is not anticipated. I am watching April 28th.
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Today’s outlook (below).
Light green is where thunderstorms may occur but should be below severe levels.
Dark green is a level one risk. Yellow is a level two risk. Orange is a level three (enhanced) risk. Red is a level four (moderate) risk. Pink is a level five (high) risk.
One is the lowest risk. Five is the highest risk.
A severe storm is one that produces 58 mph wind or higher, quarter size hail, and/or a tornado.
The tan states are simply a region that SPC outlined on this particular map. Just ignore that.
The black outline is our local area.
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Tomorrow’s severe weather outlook.
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The images below are from the WPC. Their totals are a bit lower than our current forecast. I wanted to show you the comparison.
24-hour precipitation outlook.
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48-hour precipitation outlook.
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72-hour precipitation outlook.
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.Weather advice:
Let’s monitor next Wednesday for some strong thunderstorms. A bit early to know if severe weather will be a concern.
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Weather Discussion
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- Cool today, but a nice warming trend is on the way.
- Rain chances Friday into Saturday.
- Much warmer next week. Some locations will top 80 degrees Tuesday.
- Thunderstorm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday night.
We are waking up to another chilly morning with many locations reporting frost.
Clouds held on a bit longer over portions of Kentucky. That may have prevented frost from forming in those areas.
Today will be a nice day. Not all that warm, but not cold, either.
The next weather story will be an approaching system Friday into Saturday.
If you have plans Friday night into Saturday afternoon, then you will want to monitor the live weather radars and plan accordingly.
A couple of showers are possible as early as tonight over the area, but the main focus will be mid-evening Friday into early afternoon Saturday.
There continues to be some discussion on the exact timing of the rains departure. With that said, I have it ending west to east from late morning over southeast Missouri to early/mid afternoon over the Pennyrile area of western Kentucky and northwest Kentucky/southeast Illinois.
Again, tapering west to east as the system pulls away.
I am forecasting a widespread 0.5 to 1.0″ with pockets of one-inch+. Thunderstorms could enhance rain totals in some counties. Generally though, the above is the going forecast. We could use some rain.
Thunderstorms, well to our south, could interfere with rain totals. For now, the above is my forecast.
Severe weather is not going to be a concern in our local area. Areas to our south and southwest may see some severe thunderstorms.
Temperatures will begin to push towards seasonable levels Sunday and Monday. We have experienced below normal temperatures for the last two weeks. April has been an odd-ball.
The region will bask under sunshine Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s and perhaps even some 80+ degree readings (Tuesday).
Our next weather event will arrive Tuesday night into Thursday. I am leaning towards that one being centered towards Wednesday/Wednesday night.
A band of showers and thunderstorms will accompany a decent area of low pressure that will form in the Central United States and move towards Iowa and Wisconsin.
We may have some intense thunderstorms, but it is a bit early to know for sure. Stay tuned on that one.
Let’s remember that our peak tornado months are April, May, and June. Remember, winter was dull until it wasn’t. It all came at once.
Let’s continue to stay weather aware over the coming weeks.
Models indicate the potential of a warmer than normal May. We shall see how that pans out.
There is a Pacific Typhoon that could mess with the May forecast. It is something that I am monitoring. Sometimes these systems can cause cooler air and sometimes warmer air. It depends on the exact track.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
Again, as a reminder, these are models. They are never 100% accurate. Take the general idea from them.
What should I take from these?
- The general idea and not specifics. Models usually do well with the generalities.
- The time-stamp is located in the upper left corner.
- The EC European weather model is in Zulu time.
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What am I looking at?
You are looking at different models. Meteorologists use many different models to forecast the weather. All models are wrong. Some are more wrong than others. Meteorologists have to make a forecast based on the guidance/models.
I show you these so you can see what the different models are showing as far as precipitation. If most of the models agree, then the confidence in the final weather forecast increases.
You can see my final forecast at the top of the page.
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This animation is the Storm Prediction Center WRF model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This animation is the Hrrr short-range model.
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.This animation is the 3K NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the next system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
This next animation is the lower-resolution NAM American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the GFS American Model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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This next animation is the EC European Weather model.
This animation shows you what radar might look like as the system pulls through the region. It is a future-cast radar.
Time-stamp upper left. Click the animation to enlarge it.
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Click here if you would like to return to the top of the page.
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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.10″
Yellow and orange colors are above average temperatures. Red is much above average. Light blue and blue are below-average temperatures. Green to purple colors represents much below-average temperatures.
This outlook covers April 22nd through April 28th
Click on the image to expand it.
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The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 50 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 0.80″ to 1.10″
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This outlook covers April 29th through May 5th
Click on the image to expand it.
The precipitation forecast is PERCENT OF AVERAGE. Brown is below average. Green is above average. Blue is much above average.
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EC = Equal chances of above or below average
BN= Below average
M/BN = Much below average
AN = Above average
M/AN = Much above average
E/AN = Extremely above average
Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 52 degrees
Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.70″ to 2.20″
This outlook covers May 5th through May 17th
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Precipitation outlook
LONG RANGE DISCUSSION
Key Points: This was written by the BAMwx team. I don’t edit it.
Spring Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
March, April, and May Temperature Outlook
March, April, and May Precipitation Outlook
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April outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
April precipitation outlook
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And the preliminary May outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature outlook
May precipitation outlook
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The preliminary June outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
Temperature departures
June precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
July Temperature Outlook
July precipitation outlook
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Preliminary outlooks
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
August Temperature Outlook
August precipitation outlook
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Summer Outlook
E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Temperature Outlook
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E/BN extremely below normal.
M/BN is much below normal
EC equal chances
AN above normal
M/AN much above normal
E/AN extremely above normal.
June, July, and August Precipitation Outlook
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Great news! The videos are now found in your Weathertalk app and on the WeatherTalk website.
These are bonus videos for subscribers.
The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk
Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.
The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.
Apple users click here
Android users click here
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Radars and Lightning Data
Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ
If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.
Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani
Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4
** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar
Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ
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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.
Storm Prediction Center. Click here.
Weather Prediction Center. Click here.
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Live lightning data: Click here.
Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99
Our new Zoom radar with storm chases
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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.
GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.
College of Dupage satellites. Click here
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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.
Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.
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