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Storm tracking tools. Radars, lightning, satellite. (I moved this to the bottom)
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Today: No
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Tomorrow: No

Spotty showers and storms are possible on Tuesday. A weak cold front moves into the area.
On/off rain chances Tuesday night into Thursday.
Peak rain chances are likely to be Wednesday afternoon/evening into Thursday.

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Today through Wednesday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Possible. Lighting is possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? No.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is Flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Thursday through Sunday night.

Is accumulating snow or ice in the forecast? No.
Is lightning in the forecast? Yes. Lightning is possible on Thursday and Thursday night.
Is severe weather in the forecast? Not at this time.
* The NWS officially defines severe weather as 58 mph wind or great, 1″ hail or larger, and/or tornadoes
Is flash flooding in the forecast? No.

Today’s Facebook weather discussion link
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* The Missouri Bootheel includes Dunklin, New Madrid, and Pemiscot Counties
* Northwest Kentucky includes Daviess, Henderson, McLean Union, and Webster Counties

April 22, 2019
Monday’s Forecast: Partly to mostly sunny. Quite warm.

My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 78° to 82° SE MO 78° to 82° South IL 78° to 82° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 78° to 82° West KY 78° to 82° NW TN 78° to 82°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph with gusts in the afternoon to 18 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 78° to 84°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
UV Index: 8 Very high
Sunrise: 6:11 AM
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Monday night Forecast: Partly cloudy.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: High (80% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 58° to 62° SE MO 58° to 62° South IL 58° to 62° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 58° to 62° West KY 58° to 62° NW TN 58° to 62°
Wind direction and speed: South at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 58° to 62°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 0% Southeast MO 0% Southern IL 0% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 0% Western KY 0% NW TN 0%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: None
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? None
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No
Sunset: 7:36 PM
Moonrise: 11:16 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 8:36 AM

April 23, 2019
Tuesday’s Forecast: Increasing clouds. Some scattered showers arc thunderstorms across southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. Lesser chances as you move further south in the region.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (50% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 73° to 76° South IL 73° to 76° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 74° to 76° West KY 74° to 76° NW TN 75° to 80°
Wind direction and speed: Southwest to west at 8 to 16 mph and gusty
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 72° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 40% IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered. Chances will first arrive across southern Missouri into southern Illinois. That band will slowly shift southward into the afternoon/evening hours.
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars
UV Index: 4 to 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:10 AM
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Tuesday night Forecast: Cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 54° to 56° SE MO 52° to 55° South IL 53° to 55° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 53° to 56° West KY 54° to 56° NW TN 56° to 58°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 6 to 12 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 52° to 58°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 20%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roads. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars.
Sunset: 7:37 PM
Moonrise: 11:59 PM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 9:20 AM

April 24, 2019
Wednesday’s Forecast: Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (60% confidence in the forecast))
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 74° to 78° SE MO 68° to 74° South IL 66° to 72° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 68° to 72° West KY 70° to 74° NW TN 73° to 76°
Wind direction and speed: Variable wind direction at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 66° to 76°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 30% Southeast MO 30% IL 30% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 30% Western KY 30% NW TN 30%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry.
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but check radars.
UV Index: 5 Moderate
Sunrise: 6:09 AM
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Wednesday night Forecast: Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.
My confidence in the forecast verifying: Medium (40% confidence in the forecast)
Temperature range: MO Bootheel 56° to 60° SE MO 54° to 58° South IL 56° to 58° Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 56° to 60° West KY 56° to 60 NW TN 56° to 60°
Wind direction and speed: Variable at 5 to 10 mph
Wind chill or heat index (feels like) temperature forecast: 54° to 56°
What is the chance/probability of precipitation? MO Bootheel 40% Southeast MO 40% Southern IL 40% Northwest KY (near Indiana border) 40% Western KY 40% NW TN 40%
Note, what does the % chance actually mean? A 20% chance of rain does not mean it won’t rain. It simply means most areas will remain dry
Coverage of precipitation: Scattered to perhaps numerous
What impacts are anticipated from the weather? Wet roadways. Lightning.
Should I cancel my outdoor plans? No, but monitor radars and updates. Rain is possible.
Sunset: 7:38 PM
Moonrise: 12:14 AM
The phase of the moon: Waning Gibbous
Moonset: 10:09 AM

Thursday: Medium confidence. Mostly cloudy. A 40% to 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures in the lower 70’s. Low temperatures in the middle 50’s. South winds at 7 to 14 mph.

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Friday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. High temperatures in the middle 70’s. Low temperatures in the lower 50’s. North at 5 to 10 mph

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Saturday: Medium confidence. Partly sunny. High temperatures in the upper 70’s. Low temperatures in the lower to middle 50’s. South southwest winds at 7 to 14 mph

Learn more about the UV index readings. Click here.

Graphic-cast

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** These graphic-forecasts may vary a bit from my forecast above **

CAUTION: I have these graphics set to auto-update on their own. Make sure you read my hand-typed forecast above.

During active weather check my handwritten forecast.

Missouri

Illinois

Kentucky

Tennessee

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Wind forecast

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The National Weather Service defines a severe thunderstorm as one that produces quarter size hail or larger, 58 mph winds or greater, and/or a tornado.
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Today and tomorrow: No severe thunderstorms. Scattered lightning is possible Tuesday and Tuesday night. A couple of storms could be strong. Severe weather appears unlikely.

Wednesday through Saturday: No severe thunderstorms. Lightning is possible Wednesday into Thursday night.

Be sure and have WeatherOne turned on in your WeatherTalk accounts. That is the one for winter storms, ice storms, and severe weather.

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Click the personal notification settings tab.

Turn on WeatherOne. Green is on. Red is off.

Here is the latest graphic from the WPC/NOAA.

This map shows precipitation totals.

48-hour precipitation outlook.

Here is the seven-day precipitation forecast. This includes day one through seven.

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Another beautiful day for the region. Warm.
Rain chances begin Tuesday and will continue into Thursday night. Peak coverage will likely be Wednesday into Thursday.
Thunderstorms are possible but severe storms appear unlikely. Heavy rain is also not anticipated.

Current conditions.

Have there been any changes in the forecast over the last 24 hours?
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No significant changes.

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Does the forecast require action today or tonight?
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No.

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Forecast discussion.
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Today into Thursday.
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Yesterday was amazing. Today will be another great day.

Highs will reach well into the 70’s and perhaps hit 80 degrees. I hope you are able to enjoy this weather.

There will be a few clouds today but the rain chances will hold off another day.

A series of disturbances will push across the region beginning Tuesday and lasting into at least Thursday afternoon.

A weak cold front will slowly slide southward on Tuesday. This front should spark a line of showers and thunderstorms across Missouri and Illinois. The line will shift southward with time.

It appears the earliest rain chances will be Tuesday morning and Tuesday afternoon (see future-cast radars). That line will shift southward with time.

Rain totals won’t be all that great. We have that to be thankful for. For now, it appears that rain totals this week will range from 0.25″ to 0.50″. Locally higher in thunderstorms.

A few thunderstorms are possible this week. Severe weather appears unlikely. As always, monitor updates.

Long Range

Friday into Sunday.

I am anticipating dry weather Friday and Saturday. There should be an increase in clouds by Saturday/Saturday night.

I am watching a cold front that could bring a few showers by Saturday night and Sunday. For now, this appears to be a weak system. Confidence in rain is low. No severe weather anticipated.

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Model Future-cast Radars. What the models believe the radar may look like.

Here is the NAM future-cast radar. The NAM is a model.

Time-stamp upper left.

Here is the GFS future-cast radar. GFS is another model.

The GFS model is a lower resolution model. It can show activity a bit more widespread than it will be.

Time-stamp upper left.

These maps update several times a day. Occasionally, in between updates, you may see a duplicate day or one out of sync.

Forty-eight-hour temperature outlook.

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VIDEO UPDATES

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These are bonus videos.

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They do not currently have a Kentucky/Tennessee specific video.

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The Ohio Valley video

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Long Range video

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The Missouri Valley

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Precipitation outlook

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Preliminary summer outlook

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Radar Link: Interactive local city-view radars & regional radars.

You will find clickable warning and advisory buttons on the local city-view radars.

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

Live lightning data: Click here.

Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool. Click here.

College of Dupage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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A new weather podcast is now available! Weather Geeks (which you might remember is on The Weather Channel each Sunday)

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WeatherBrains Episode 691

Tonight’s WeatherBrain has been a broadcast meteorologist for 35 years, with the past 25 years in Top 10 markets including Houston and Dallas Texas. In January 2019, he retired from television, but started his own business titled “Heller Weather LLC”. This business helps local TV stations maximize their weather resources and build stronger brands. Tim Heller, welcome to WeatherBrains!

Other discussions in this weekly podcast include topics like: