Beau Dodson's WeatherTalk Blog

April 21, 2025: Monitoring an unsettled pattern.

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Or email me at beaudodsonweather@gmail.com

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🌪️ Seven-Day Tornado Outlook ⛈️

April 21st through April 28th

Current risk: NOT AT THIS TIME.

Current confidence level: Medium.

Comment:  Monitor updates.

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Seven-Day Hazardous Weather Outlook

1. Is lightning in the forecast?  YES.   A chance of lightning Wednesday night into Saturday.  Perhaps next Sunday night and Monday, as well.  Unsettled pattern overall.  On and off thunderstorm chances.  It won’t rain all of the time.

2.  Are severe thunderstorms in the forecast?  NOT AT THIS TIME.  I will monitor next Monday.  For now, the threat of severe weather tomorrow through Sunday does not appear to be a concern.  As always, monitor future updates.  It is spring.

3. Is flash flooding in the forecast? NOT AT THIS TIME.  

4. Will non-thunderstorm winds top 40 mph?  NO.   

5. Will temperatures rise above 90 degrees?  NO.

6. Will the heat index rise above 100 degrees?  NO.   

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A quick forecast glance.  Your 48-hour forecast Graphics

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Forecast discussion.    

  •   Mild this week.
  •   A few showers and storms from Wednesday night into Saturday.
  •   Another chance of thunderstorms next Sunday afternoon into Monday.
  •  At this time, the threat of severe weather appears minimal.  It is spring, monitor updates.

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Major flooding continues in some counties.

Avoid flooded roadways. Water continues to recede in many areas.  Larger rivers, however, continue to rise.

River and lake stages.  Forecasts.  Click here.

Good morning, everyone.

We had some severe thunderstorms on Sunday, mostly in southeast Missouri.  A few warnings were issued for Illinois and northwest Tennessee.

We will have to see if the NWS can find any tornado paths.  There were several tornado warnings.

All in all, it was a low-end severe weather event.  There was not much instability.  There was a lot of wind shear.  Thankfully, CAPE was low.  CAPE is energy that storms tap into.

There could be a couple of showers left over this morning over eastern portions of western Kentucky.

Otherwise, some clouds today.  Mild.

A series of systems will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms back to the forecast Wednesday through next Monday.

At this time, the threat of severe weather appears low.  I am watching next Sunday night and Monday.  That is just a bit too far out to be forecasting severe storms.

What is more likely is on and off damp periods.  Perhaps some periodic downpours.

There will be quite a bit of moisture to work with.  It does not appear that there will be much CAPE to work with.  Again, CAPE is energy that severe thunderstorms tap into.

This is the precipitable water forecast.  Precipitable water is a measure of moisture in the entire atmosphere.

This is quite a bit of moisture that is expected to move across the region.  This animation is for Wednesday through next Thursday.  Waves of moisture.

Those purple colors are the highest moisture levels.  Notice how they move in and out over a period of days.  Waves of moisture.

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Temperatures will be mild.  No extreme warmth or cold in the short-range charts.

Here is the latest seven-day rainfall forecast.  Nothing extreme, yet.  Let’s monitor these totals.  I can’t rule out them trending a bit higher.

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The timestamp (upper left) is in Zulu.  12z=7 am. 18z=1 pm. 00z=7 pm.

Double-click the animation to enlarge it.

GFS model


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.Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 68 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 46 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.00″ to 1.40″

Six to Ten Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Average highs for this time of the year are in the lower 60s.  Average lows for this time of the year are in the lower 40s.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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Average high temperatures for this time of the year are around 69 degrees.

Average low temperatures for this time of the year are around 48 degrees.

Average precipitation during this time period ranges from 1.20″ to 1.50″
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Eight to Fourteen Day Outlook.

Blue is below average.  Red is above average.  The no color zone represents equal chances.

Green is above average precipitation.  Yellow and brown favors below average precipitation.  Average precipitation for this time of the year is around one inch per week.

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** NEW SERVICE **  I have partnered with WeatherCall to bring you an added layer of protection.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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We have a new service to complement your www.weathertalk.com subscription.  This does NOT replace www.weathertalk.com It is simply another tool for you to receive severe weather information.

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I use it myself. I encourage everyone to have 3 to 5 ways of receiving their severe weather information. All sources can fail, and the more sources you have, the better prepared you will be in the event of severe weather warnings.
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WeatherCall will call your cell phone or home number if your home is under a tornado or severe thunderstorm warning.  It only calls you if your home is inside the warning box/polygon. If you are outside the warning box/polygon it will not disturb you.
Here is a video with more information and a demonstration of how it works.
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More information on the WeatherCall subscription service at the link below or use the QR code.

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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar


If the radar is not working, then email me: Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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We do have some sponsors!  Check them out.

Roof damage from recent storms?  Link – Click here

INTEGRITY ROOFING AND EXTERIORS!

⛈️ Roof or gutter damage from recent storms? Today’s weather is sponsored by Integrity Roofing. Check out their website at this link https://www.ourintegritymatters.com/

 

Make sure you have three to five ways of receiving your severe weather information.

Weather Talk is one of those ways!  Now, I have another product for you and your family.

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Want to add more products to your Beau Dodson Weather App?

Receive daily videos, weather blog updates on normal weather days and severe weather and winter storm days, your county by county weather forecast, and more!

Here is how to do add those additional products to your app notification settings!

Here is a video on how to update your Beau Dodson Weather payment.

The app is for subscribers. Subscribe at www.weathertalk.com/welcome then go to your app store and search for WeatherTalk

Subscribers, PLEASE USE THE APP. ATT and Verizon are not reliable during severe weather. They are delaying text messages.

The app is under WeatherTalk in the app store.

Apple users click here

Android users click here



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Radars and Lightning Data

Interactive-city-view radars. Clickable watches and warnings.
https://wtalk.co/B3XHASFZ

Old legacy radar site (some of you like it better)
https://weatherobservatory.com/weather-radar.htm

If the radar is not updating then try another one. If a radar does not appear to be refreshing then hit Ctrl F5. You may also try restarting your browser.

Backup radar site in case the above one is not working.
https://weathertalk.com/morani

Regional Radar
https://imagery.weathertalk.com/prx/RadarLoop.mp4

** NEW ** Zoom radar with chaser tracking abilities!
ZoomRadar

Lightning Data (zoom in and out of your local area)
https://wtalk.co/WJ3SN5UZ

Not working? Email me at beaudodson@usawx.com

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National map of weather watches and warnings. Click here.

Storm Prediction Center. Click here.

Weather Prediction Center. Click here.

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Live lightning data: Click here.

Real time lightning data (another one) https://map.blitzortung.org/#5.02/37.95/-86.99

Our new Zoom radar with storm chases

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Interactive GOES R satellite. Track clouds. Click here.

GOES 16 slider tool.   Click here.

College of DuPage satellites. Click here

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Here are the latest local river stage forecast numbers Click Here.

Here are the latest lake stage forecast numbers for Kentucky Lake and Lake Barkley Click Here.

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